Title : World may have averted bird flu pandemic: expert
By :
Date : 19 November 2006 1034 hrs (SST)
URL : http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_asiapacific/view/242242/1/.html
SYDNEY : The world may have already averted a bird flu pandemic by
widespread chicken culls and the isolation of infected humans,
Australia's chief medical officer said in a report released
Sunday.
But if a new flu virus did begin spreading rapidly among humans all
the world's preparations might be shown to be insufficient, John
Horvath wrote in the Medical Journal of Australia.
"It may be that the world has already averted an influenza pandemic
by actions it has taken in response to H5N1, such as extensive
culling of poultry and isolation of infected humans," he
said.
"Yet all preparations may seem insufficient if the world comes face
to face with a rapidly spreading novel virus like the one that
emerged in 1918."
Scientists fear the H5N1 virus, which has spread from poultry to
humans and killed more than 150 people worldwide, mainly in Asia,
could mutate to become easily transmissible among people.
That could lead to a global flu pandemic which could kill more than
the tens of millions killed by the "Spanish Flu" in 1918.
Horvath noted that the changes in the world since previous
pandemics, such as faster and cheaper international travel and more
densely populated countries, would make it easier for disease to
spread.
Leading immunologist Peter Doherty said in the same
government-sponsored report that while some kind of pandemic
outbreak was certain in the future researchers were divided over
whether it would be caused by the H5N1 virus.
"There's the quandary: the potential threat has horrific
proportions but it is not clear whether anything will actually
happen," he wrote.
The top UN coordinator on avian influenza, David Nabarro, said
earlier this month the H5N1 virus was likely to remain a
significant global threat for the next decade.
"The risk of a mutation to cause pandemic is still very much
there," he said. "As long as the virus is present in birds, there
will also be a threat of sporadic human infection, and a
possibility of a mutation which would cause at the end of the day a
pandemic." - AFP/ch