Another Middle East War Is on
the Horizon
BY JOHN KEEGAN - The Daily Telegraph
November 3, 2006
URL: http://www.nysun.com/article/42816
LONDON There will soon be another war in the Middle East, this
time a renewal of the conflict between the Israel Defense Force and
Hezbollah. The conflict is inevitable and unavoidable. It will come
about because Israel cannot tolerate the rebuilding of Hezbollah's
fortified zone in South Lebanon, from which last year it launched
its missile bombardment of northern Israel.
Hezbollah has now reconstructed the fortified zone and is
replenishing its stocks of missiles there. It is also creating a
fortified zone in the Gaza Strip and building up its stocks of
missiles there. Israel, therefore, faces missile attack on two
fronts. When the Israel general staff decides the threat has become
intolerable, it will strike.
What happened in South Lebanon earlier this year has been widely
misunderstood, largely because the anti-Israel bias in the
international press led to the situation being misreported as an
Israeli defeat.
It was no such thing. It was certainly an Israeli setback, but the
idea that the IDF had suddenly lost its historic superiority over
its Arab enemies and that they had acquired military qualities that
had hitherto eluded them was quite false. Hezbollah suffered heavy
losses in the fighting, perhaps as many as 1,000 killed out of its
strength of up to 5,000, and it is only just now recovering.
What allowed Hezbollah to appear successful was its occupation of
the bunker-and-tunnel system that it had constructed since June
2000, when the IDF gave up its presence in South Lebanon, which it
had occupied since 1967. Although the IDF had got into South
Lebanon, the casualties it had suffered in entering the fortified
zone had alarmed the government and high command, since Israel's
tiny population is acutely vulnerable to losses in battle. Israel's
plan was to destroy Hezbollah's tunnels and bunkers, but the
sending of a U.N. intervention force did not allow the destruction
to be completed before the IDF was forced to withdraw.
Tunnel systems have played a crucial part in many modern campaigns
without attracting much attention. That is a serious oversight. The
success of the Viet Cong in sustaining its war effort in Vietnam in
196872 depended heavily on its use of the so-called War Zone B, a
complex of deep tunnels and underground bases north of Saigon,
which had been begun during the war against the French in
194655.
War Zone B provided the Viet Cong with a permanent base of refuge
and resupply that proved effectively invulnerable even against a
determined American effort to destroy it. War Zone B has now become
a major tourist attraction to Western visitors to Vietnam.
In its time, however, War Zone B was very far from being a holiday
facility: it assured the survival of the Viet Cong close to Saigon
and their ability to mount operations against the government forces
and the Americans. Hezbollah, either by mimicry or on its own
account, has now begun to employ a tunnel and underground base
strategy against Israel. It was for that reason that it was able to
confront Israeli armored forces in South Lebanon earlier this
year.
The adoption of a tunnel strategy has allowed Hezbollah to wage
asymmetric warfare against Israel's previously all-conquering
armored forces. The tunnel system is also impervious to attack by
the Israeli Air Force.
Since Israel's reason for existence is to provide a secure base for
the Jewish people and that of the IDF is to act as their shield and
safeguard functions that have been carried out with high success
since 1948 it is obvious that neither can tolerate a zone of
invulnerability occupied by a sworn enemy located directly on
Israel's northern border.
It is therefore an easy prediction to foresee that the IDF will
at some time in the near future reopen its offensive against
Hezbollah in South Lebanon and will not cease until it has
destroyed the underground system, even if, in the process, it
inflicts heavy damage on the towns and villages of the
region.
It is likely that it will also move against the underground system
being constructed in the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah resupplies itself
with arms and munitions brought from Egypt through those channels.
Gaza is a softer target than South Lebanon, since it is an enclave
that Israel easily dominates.
Indeed, the IDF may attack Hezbollah bases in Gaza as a distraction
from South Lebanon in an effort to make Hezbollah divide its forces
and efforts.
Destroying the underground military facilities may be
straightforward, but it is likely to create diplomatic
complexities, particularly with the United Nations. Entering South
Lebanon risks provoking a clash with UNIFIL, the major part of
whose strength is provided by France. It is unlikely that such a
risk will deter Israel. When national survival is at risk, Israel
behaves with extreme ruthlessness. After all, it attacked a
American communications ship during the Six-Day War because it
objected to America listening in to its most secret signals.
What is certain is that probably before the year is out Israel
will have struck at Hezbollah in South Lebanon. And the strike will
come even sooner if Hezbollah reopens its missile bombardment of
northern Israel from its underground systems.