Nuclear steps put region on brink of most fearful era yet

News SG

The Times November 04, 2006

Nuclear steps put region on brink of most fearful era yet
By Richard Beeston
The Middle East is poised for a headlong rush into a new age. The players, their motives and the risks are analysed by our correspondent

IT IS one of the worlds most unstable regions, where conflicts over land, ideology and religion have raged for centuries.

Yet the Middle East may now be entering the most precarious era of its history, with the sudden rush by Arabs, Iranians and Turks to master nuclear technology and one day unlock the secrets to the atomic bomb.

Yesterdays disclosure that Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and smaller states such as Tunisia and the UAE want to acquire nuclear technology was suspected for some time, but the headlong race into the atomic age came as a shock.

For months Arab leaders have been speaking out against nuclear proliferation in the region. Most wanted a nuclear-free zone to force Israel to give up its nuclear arsenal and to discourage Iran, which is pursuing a controversial atomic programme many suspect will give the regime a nuclear weapons capability.

But the calculations in the region changed dramatically this year. A far more strident Iran, under the leadership of President Ahmadinejad, defied pressure from the international community and began uranium enrichment work, which could be used to produce the fissile material needed to make an atomic weapon.

Then last month North Korea detonated a nuclear device, proving that even a country with limited resources can build an atomic weapon and use its nuclear status to blackmail the international community. In the case of North Korea the world did unite to place sanctions on the regime in Pyongyang. But so far the United Nations Security Council has failed to find a common approach on Iran, which defied a UN ultimatum more than two months ago and has yet to suffer any consequences.

Last night Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, said proposals by the European Union to impose very limited sanctions on Iran were too strong. Western diplomats fear the talks will drag on without any serious action being taken against the Iranian regime, which recently announced it had expanded its enrichment work.

The rest of the world has been watching these events with alarm, and nowhere more closely than in the Middle East. It is widely accepted that an Iran armed with nuclear weapons would fundamentally alter the balance of power in the region. Tehran has most vocally spoken out against Israel and Mr Ahmadinejad once remarked that the country should be wiped off the map.

But even greater concern exists in Arab states. They fear the rise of Irans brand of Islam and the impact it is having on Shia brethren in countries such as Iraq, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states.

An Iran that is a member of the nuclear club would have far more clout in the region.

There is no evidence that the sudden interest by Irans neighbours and across the Arab world in nuclear technology is directly connected to Tehrans own nuclear ambitions. But the coincidence is too great to ignore, particularly in a region blessed by huge oil reserves where costly nuclear energy has never been needed before.

A civilian nuclear programme would not give any of the countries automatic access to nuclear weapons but building up nuclear knowhow and training a core of nuclear physicists and technicians is a vital first step in that direction.

The first country to signal an interest in nuclear power was Turkey. In June Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Prime Minister, announced the country planned to build three power stations by 2015, the first near the Black Sea coast town of Sinop by 2014.

Next came Egypt. President Mubarak told members of his ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) in late September that the time had come for a serious debate about a nuclear programme, which Egypt abandoned 20 years ago.

This week it became clear that the debate was over. During a visit to Moscow his Russian hosts were delighted to learn that he had decided to build up to four nuclear power stations and would consider bids from Moscow.

The first Egyptian nuclear power plant is due to be completed at Dabaa by 2015.

Algeria is expected to be next in line. It already explored the possibility of nuclear power in the 1980s and is ready to pick up where it left off.

Most interest will be focused on Saudi Arabia, traditionally Irans main rival for control of the Gulf. The leadership has consistently cautioned about the dangers of nuclear expansion in the region. Now it has signalled that it too wants to join the club.

This year Prince Saud alFaisal, the Saudi Foreign Minister, said that he was opposed to all nuclear expansion in the Middle East, be it for power stations or for weapons. Prince Saud told The Times: We are urging Iran to accept the position that we have taken to make the Gulf, as part of the Middle East, nuclear-free and free of weapons of mass destruction. We hope they will join us in this policy and assure that no new threat or arms race happens in this region.

Those hopes now appear doomed. In their place is the first evidence of a nuclear race beginning in the region and with it fears that the Middle East is entering the most dangerous period of its history.