The Sunday Times September 03, 2006
Israel plans for war with Iran and Syria
Uzi Mahnaimi, Tel Aviv, and Sarah Baxter, New York
THREATENED by a potentially nuclear-armed Tehran, Israel is
preparing for a possible war with both Iran and Syria, according to
Israeli political and military sources.
The conflict with Hezbollah has led to a strategic rethink in
Israel. A key conclusion is that too much attention has been paid
to Palestinian militants in Gaza and the West Bank instead of the
two biggest state sponsors of terrorism in the region, who pose a
far greater danger to Israels existence, defence insiders
say.
The challenge from Iran and Syria is now top of the Israeli
defence agenda, higher than the Palestinian one, said an Israeli
defence source. Shortly before the war in Lebanon Major-General
Eliezer Shkedi, the commander of the air force, was placed in
charge of the Iranian front, a new position in the Israeli
Defence Forces. His job will be to command any future strikes on
Iran and Syria.
The Israeli defence establishment believes that Irans pursuit of a
nuclear programme means war is likely to become unavoidable.
In the past we prepared for a possible military strike against
Irans nuclear facilities, said one insider, but Irans growing
confidence after the war in Lebanon means we have to prepare for a
full-scale war, in which Syria will be an important player.
A new infantry brigade has been formed named Kfir (lion cub), which
will be the largest in the Israeli army. It is a partial solution
for the challenge of the Syrian commando brigades, which are
considered better than Hezbollahs, a military source said.
There has been grave concern in Israel over a military pact signed
in Tehran on June 15 between Iran and Syria, which the Iranian
defence minister described as a mutual front against Israeli
threats. Israel has not had to fight against more than one army
since 1973.
During the war in Lebanon, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, the Iranian
founder of Hezbollah, warned: If the Americans attack Iran, Iran
will attack Tel Aviv with missiles.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in
London, both Iran and Syria have ballistic missiles that can cover
most of Israel, including Tel Aviv. An emergency budget has now
been assigned to building modern shelters.
The ineptness of the Israeli Defence Forces against Hezbollah has
raised the Iranians confidence, said a leading defence
analyst.
In Washington, the military hawks believe that an airstrike against
Iranian nuclear bunkers remains a more straightforward, if risky,
operation than chasing Hezbollah fighters and their mobile rocket
launchers in Lebanon.
Fixed targets are hopelessly vulnerable to precision bombing, and
with stealth bombers even a robust air defence system doesnt make
much difference, said Richard Perle, a leading
neoconservative.
The option of an eventual attack remains on the table after
President George Bush warned on Friday that Iran must not be
allowed to develop nuclear weapons.
While the American State Department favours engaging with President
Bashar Assad of Syria in the hope of detaching him from the Iranian
alliance, hawks believe Israel missed a golden opportunity to
strike at Syria during the Hezbollah conflict.
If they had acted against Syria during this last kerfuffle, the
war might have ended more quickly and better, Perle added. Syrian
military installations are sitting ducks and the Syrian air force
could have been destroyed on the ground in a couple of days. Assad
set off alarm bells in Israel when he said during the war in
Lebanon: If we do not obtain the occupied Golan Heights by
peaceful means, the resistance option is there.
During the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Syrian army briefly captured
the Israeli strategic post on top of Mount Hermon on the Golan
Heights.
Some Israeli analysts believe Syria will try again to take this
post, which overlooks the Syrian capital, Damascus.
As a result of the change in the defence priorities, the budget for
the Israeli forces in the West Bank and Gaza is to be
reduced.
The Israelis are integrating three elite brigades that performed
well during the Lebanon war under one headquarters, so they can
work together on deep cross-border operations in Iran and
Syria.
Advocates of political engagement believe a war with Syria could
unleash Islamic fundamentalist terror in what has hitherto been a
stable dictatorship. Some voices in the Pentagon are not impressed
by that argument.
If Syria spirals into chaos, at least theyll be taking on each
other rather than heading for Jerusalem, said one insider.
=============
WWIII??