http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/southasia/view/184372/1/.html
NICOBAR ISLANDS : As the world takes time out to remember the
290,000 victims of the December 26 tsunami that hit the region last
year, some experts are already issuing a serious warning: Look
ahead at what could happen next.
Of particular worry are the remarks made by Thai meteorologist and
seismologist Dr Smith Dharmasaroja.
In recent interviews, the Thai scientist has warned that the
epicentre of the next earthquake would be further north than last
year's temblors, which brings the Straits of Malacca and - more
disturbingly - Singapore and Malaysia into range.
And Dr Dharmasaroja is not a man who should be ignored.
In 1998, he was the man who predicted that Thailand's Phuket island
and the surrounding Andaman region was at risk.
At that time he was called a "rumour-monger" and a "madman", out to
ruin the country's tourism industry.
Having sadly been proved right last December, he is now a
vice-minister in the Office of the Prime Minister of Thailand, and
has been tasked with putting in place early warning systems along
the Andaman coastline.
Said the 70-year-old in an interview with TODAY: "We can only say,
by historical data, that every 50, 80 or 100 years a big earthquake
and tsunami will occur. This possibility is based on current
seismological data.
"The latest data shows that the epicentre is moving north towards
the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, and if an earthquake takes place
in this area, this would cause greater effects in the Straits of
Malacca than what happened last year.
"If the epicentre continues to move north and a tsunami occurs, the
wave will move towards the Straits of Malacca, which is narrow and
shallow.
"This can cause great damage if early preparations are not
taken."
He added that he recently concluded studies on such a possibility
with other scientists.
"We have made the simulation tests, and now we need to look at the
data to see the impact of a tsunami if an earthquake happens in the
north, and, using this data, set up early warning systems."
Though he refuses to be drawn into predicting when such a tsunami
will strike, Dr Dharmasaroja said that his studies are based on
tsunami record data that stretches back for 200 years, which he has
been analysing over the last 30 years.
"There have been 12 tsunamis in the last two centuries and the last
big one before Dec 26 last year occurred in the Indian Ocean,
created by the explosion of the Krakatoa volcano 122 years ago," he
said.
"Sometimes the really big ones occur in 80 to 100-year cycles. In
1941, there was an earthquake near the Nicobar Islands which
measured 8.7 on the Richter scale and in 1914 there was one that
was 7.2.
"Both of these had their epicentres north of the Dec 26 earthquake,
east of Sumatra. Based on these records, we are due for another big
earthquake in roughly the same area - and it could send waves
surging through the Straits of Malacca which could smash into
Malaysia and Singapore."
Associate Professor Dr David Higgitt of the National University of
Singapore's geography department said that while there was no
evidence to suggest that Singapore could be hit by a tsunami, he
did agree that recent studies and data have shown that there was
stress building up in the Nicobar Islands area.
He added that geophysicists in the United States are also studying
the reasons behind the substantial move northwards. He also noted
that there had been an earthquake at the Nicobar Islands in March,
which triggered a minor tsunami.
"But for the Straits of Malacca to be hit by primary waves, it
would have to be a huge earthquake," said Dr Higgitt.
He added that Dr Dharmasaroja's studies are based primarily on
historical data and the huge assumption that a major earthquake
would strike the Nicobar Islands.
Added Dr Higgitt: "I have not seen the data of the simulation tests
and it would not be fair for me to comment until I do."
But until then, Dr Dharmasaroja is urging the governments of
Malaysia and Singapore to take proper precautions, including
setting up early warning systems.
Said the scientist, who was featured on the front page of The New
Straits Times of Malaysia yesterday: "I don't want the Singaporean
and Malaysian governments to make the mistakes which the Thai
government made. The early warning system is something which they
should seriously invest in because it will save a lot of
lives.
"In fact, I've suggested to the Indonesian government that it
should not allow any human habitation on the northern coast of
Sumatra as these areas are prone to be hit."
But what can these countries do if something as big as the Dec 26
tsunami does strike?
"A good warning system can help. A system that warns people at
least one hour in advance is good, because it gives them time to
head for higher ground. You should build structures that are strong
enough to withstand the waves," he said.
"You also need to educate people on what to do. For instance, for
fishermen and ship-owners, when there is a tsunami warning, they
need to know to move their ships out to sea, not dock them.
"This is because a tsunami gets bigger the closer it moves inland.
You do not feel the tsunami when you are in deep water. Governments
should consider putting up buffer zones along the coastline,
perhaps by planting strong coconut trees, bamboo shoots, or
mangrove plants."
Dr Dharmasaroja says that he is more than willing to help in
convincing the sceptics.
"They should just take the time to set up a committee to study this
phenomenon and, if they are willing, I will produce my research to
show why I believe that an earthquake will take place in the
Nicobar Islands area," he said. - TODAY
