"There are some subtle changes in the genetic makeup of H5N1
which suggest that it is making some of the mutations that would
enable it to have a higher likelihood of being able to become a
human-to-human transmitted virus," said David Nabarro.
Bird flu
mutating
16/12/2005 09:23 - (SA)
Phnom Penh - Bird flu has yet to achieve human-to-human
transmission, but subtle mutations in the virus are bringing the
world closer to a pandemic, the UN's coordinator on avian influenza
said on Friday.
"There are some subtle changes in the genetic makeup of H5N1 which
suggest that it is making some of the mutations that would enable
it to have a higher likelihood of being able to become a
human-to-human transmitted virus," said David Nabarro.
"Virologists who study these things say do not get complacent. It
is quite feasible that H5N1 could mutate. The fact that it has
taken some years should not lead you to believe that we are through
the worst."
Nabarro was speaking in Phnom Penh during a one-day visit to
Cambodia, which has seen at least four human bird flu deaths.
Difficulties stockpiling anti-virals
He warned that there are difficulties stockpiling enough anti-viral
medicines to combat the illness.
"We all would like there to be much more stock of anti-viral
medicines. We are in a bit of difficulty because the production
capacity, particularly of (Tamiflu), is quite restricted," he said,
adding that the UN was in regular talks with drug manufacturers to
build up stocks.
The bird flu virus has killed more than 70 people through Asia
since 2003 and resulted in the culling of millions of birds,
dealing a huge blow to regional poultry industries.
World health bodies have warned that once the virus achieves the
ability to transmit from human to human, millions of people could
die.
Nabarro, who will also visit Vietnam and Indonesia, commended
Cambodia for its effort to combat the virus.
"Cambodia has to be prepared for a possible pandemic and my
understanding is that is happening," he said.
"I don't say everything is fine because there is still much more to
be done. One of the reasons I came to this country was because I
believe there are lessons from Cambodia ... that need to be shared
elsewhere."
*******
An epidemic of super flu is
inevitable! 
