We recently came across an article on CNBC discussing ex-HDB
chief Liu Thai Ker’s belief that Singapore needs to plan for a
population of 10 million. It is easy to dismiss his comments as the
usual propaganda, where the government tries to start prepping its
citizens for an inevitable expansion of the population.
We think it is worth looking at the merits and weaknesses in this
argument for the planning of a population of 10 million.
Singapore currently accommodates more than 5.3 million people as of
2013. In 2000, this number was at 4 million. That means an
increased of about 1.3 million people over a span of 13 years, or
100,000 per annum.
The current government’s white paper describes its vision for a
population of 6.9 million people. Hence, there is a significant way
to go before we hit 10 million, assuming we do reach there. In
addition, the government has restricted immigration over the past
few years and appears committed to this restriction, as least for
the time being.
With time in our favour, a plan should be drawn up to realistically
and sustainably build our infrastructure to support the lofty
population target. We should learn from past policy mistakes in
allowing an inflow of population that has wrecked havoc on the
nation’s housing system, transport system and even created a
division on how citizens view their foreign counterparts.
If our population does indeed expand, we should be in favour of
proper forward planning this time around, lest these disasters
repeat themselves.
The previous inflow of immigrants allowed local and international
companies based in Singapore to undermine the career prospects of
the Singaporean worker by neglecting productivity, training and
innovation in favour of cheap labour to boost output.
Don’t get us wrong, increasing output is important, but it would be
a whole lot better had the increased in output been as a result of
productivity and innovation gains, rather than due to an increased
in population.
In sectors such as banking and finance, we took shortcuts and left
it to international companies to hire whoever they like so that we
could gain ground internationally. The government is slowly
ratifying this through new initiatives and policies. And it should
continue aiding and attracting our MNCs by building a high quality
workforce, not just a high quantity one.
Strictly speaking, from an economic point of view, GDP can only
rise when either the population increases or technology improves
(for simplicity sake we will assume this to be productivity).
Usually, the solution is a combination of both.
A slow rise in population to 10 million will give Singaporeans more
time to adapt, and more importantly for our government, more time
to plan and accommodate this number. It will also allow them more
freedom in adjusting its policies. Let’s not forget, the future
government, PAP or otherwise, may have vastly differing views from
the current one today.
Unlike how Mr Liu thinks that policy should be planned on a macro
level, we feel our leaders need to understand the sentiments on the
ground. It is easy for someone to sit on a pedestal and claim that
they are doing everything on behalf of the common man’s interest.
But it is another thing to understand whether the common man’s life
is actually getting better with each passing policy.
We are not sure whether our progress internationally in the last 20
years has aided the bottom 20% of wage earners. Perhaps, it is
worth asking if Singapore is really progressing so well, why are
her people constantly complaining? Are we simply an ungrateful
bunch, or could the underlying reason be something far deeper.
These are the questions that our leaders, both current and future,
should ask themselves. The country’s progress has to trickle down
to everyone, and not just the high wage earners who continue to
earn high wages and give Singapore the unflattering honour of being
a developed country with one of the widest income inequality in the
world.
In summary, we think there must be a sustainable plan for a larger
population, whether it is the 6.9 million as described in the PAP’s
white paper, or 10 million.
yahoo
