As a general rule, I prefer to make my predictions after the
event - I find it does wonders for their accuracy. But if you're
going to put yourself on the line and make a forecast, there's one
situation where getting it wrong is a pleasure - when someone turns
out to be better than you expected.
For me, Leonardo's performance
as Milan coach is in that category. He might be under
pressure and it could be that losing to Manchester United in the
Champions League might cost him his job. But the Brazilian has made
a better, and certainly a bolder, fist of it than I imagined.
Leonardo was never a great player. He was a good one, but was
probably more impressive as a man than as a footballer. In the
dressing room, he was seen as the wise head who could find the
right thing to say.
He came from a relatively wealthy background, but whereas some
in Brazil use privilege as a safety net, for him it served as a
springboard to self-improvement. Always concerned with those less
fortunate then himself, he set up the Gol de Letra
institution to aid the educational formation of poor kids in Rio
and Sao Paulo, in collaboration with former team-mate Rai.
But could he call the shots at a big club like Milan? I had my
doubts.
I recall an upmarket radio show in Brazil a few years ago with
Leonardo as the guest, talking for an hour about the challenges
facing Brazilian football. I was sure this would be fascinating as,
with all his European experience, Leonardo would have plenty of
pertinent things to say.
I sat by the radio with pen and paper, but by the end of the
hour I hadn't written anything. He'd talked without content - "we
need new paradigms" was the phrase of the night, repeated several
times with no concrete elaboration of what had to change.
The problem, I felt, was that although he had proposals to make,
but that he seemed afraid to do so, perhaps scared of upsetting the
power structure. So when nice, well-brought-up
Leonardo took over at Milan, I didn't think he would be
tough enough to take the hard decisions.
He did have one thing going for him. After Luiz Felipe Scolari was
sacked by Chelsea, I commented that the breakthrough by
Brazilian coaches in Europe would probably be made by those with
some history of playing in the continent .
They would have benefited from time away from the paternalistic
relationship between coach and players in their native land, and
the cosmopolitan dressing room of a European squad would not come
as a shock. They would be cured of the unfortunate habit of
dividing the world into Brazilians and 'gringos.'
Leonardo certainly fits into this category. He is a thoroughly
international figure. One of his players, Alexandre Pato, recently praised the
ability of his coach to communicate with his squad in so many
different languages.
But communication is only ever as good as its content and the
pleasant surprise was that Leonardo did not intend to play safe -
as perhaps might have been understandable with a squad that had just lost
its star player, Kaka, whisked away to Real Madrid.
Instead he bravely opted for a 4-3-3 formation, clearly
influenced by Barcelona and
obviously intended to get as much as possible out of Ronaldinho,
who was so effective in the wide left role in his mid-decade heyday
with the Catalan club.
This was a daring step in Italian football, especially early
season, when Ronaldinho was still waddling around like a former
player who has turned up for a charity match. But after a dodgy
start the team started to put some wins together.
It is perhaps no surprise that a recent indifferent spell has
coincided with the absence through injury of Alexandro Pato, whose
pace from the right flank makes him such a good target for
Ronaldinho's diagonal passes.
Leonardo will be relieved that Pato is available once more. And if
the stakes are high for the coach against Manchester United, they are probably
higher still for Ronaldinho, who was left out of
Brazil's squad for the forthcoming friendly against the Republic of
Ireland.
It does not necessarily mean that Ronaldinho will not be going
to the World Cup - it is undeniable that he has responded better to
the stick than the carrot.
Being carried in the national squad for almost three years did
not seem to do him much good, but since he was left out his form
and fitness have improved. Maybe coach Dunga has come to the
conclusion that keeping him out of the squad is the best way to
maintain his motivation.
A recall would create problems as Brazil have played better, and
found their identity, in Ronaldinho's absence - they don't use the
4-3-3 system which seems to suit him so well -and bringing him back
would mean no place for one of Dunga's trusty foot soldiers.
Ronaldinho has never really clicked alongside Kaka, the
undisputed king of the Brazilian attack but even so, most World Cup
coaches would be drooling at the prospect of taking him to the
World Cup in South Africa - even as a one-man Plan B, to be
unleashed from the bench in times of trouble.
Making making a decisive contribution in the big games, such as
the two legs against United, would make calls for his return
impossible to ignore.
If Ronaldinho can repay the faith Leonardo has shown in him, he
can take a giant step towards regaining the faith of Dunga.