You've to factor in the fact we still need to play
Chelsea.
Should we lose to Chelsea, we need 4 points from the other 2 games
(and that's only working on the likely scenario we'd win on goal
difference)...
Should we draw with Chelsea, we need just 1 point from the other 2
games (once again, assume we'd win on goal difference if Chelsea
win their other 2 games)...
If we beat Chelsea, it's all over there and then...