The problem is they do not seem to have quite worked out
the limits of their own predatory power. In a global
recession,
Man City
are driving the market and every club trying to salve their
debt problems and every agent keen to make a killing wants to be
part of it. That makes for a logistical nightmare for the club
itself, trying to filter out the real deals from the white noise
being generated by those simply on the make.
Outside Chelsea's pursuit of Fernando Torres, which is growing
in intensity, there are no other English clubs who can even come
close to competing on the big deals. With the market across Europe
as desperate as it has ever been, a call from City is a
godsend.
Across Europe the transfer market is moribund – one chief
executive of a leading European club said he had never seen
anything like it. The middle ranking English clubs are cutting
their cloth and, with the weakness of the pound and the increase in
income tax, they cannot get the foreign players in as they used
to.
Spain and France have also been hit by an increase in tax rates
as the state stops indulging football clubs. French clubs have had
their budgets rejected by their financial controller for excessive
optimism in projected player sales. French football used to bring
in about €250 million in transfer fees every season. Those days are
done.
Besides Barcelona and Real Madrid, who can still pull in big
bank loans, Spanish football is also struggling. As their economy
tanks after the burst of the property bubble, so clubs are
suffering after the banks lost patience with lending them money.
The collapse of one of the television companies there will bring
serious long-term repercussions.
Italy is little better. Nobody has any money to spend, even
Juventus and Milan, while Roma are up for sale and Lazio have been
described as "a dead man walking".
The Bundesliga is the healthy man of European football. Many
agents are leaving the previously fertile Premier League to work
with German clubs. Their model of high attendances and strong
sponsorship deals is working.
With Uefa's financial rules being implemented in 2012, the
Germans are in a real position of strength.
In this context, City are the welcome freak. They are being
forced to pay a premium for the simple reason that they can. The
problem for the rest of the big fish in the pond is that City are
willing to pay that premium, which is distorting the market and
stalling moves. Edin Dzeko, of Wolfsburg, and Mario Balotelli, of
Inter, are the latest to bring a potential payday to their clubs.
Note that all their spending is bleeding out of English
football.
Yet City are still being forced to bring about change by
expensive increments. Roman Abramovich spent Chelsea into title
contention in his first two seasons, but City have found it
harder.
Thanks to the weight of the early spending and the astuteness of
the signings, Chelsea almost immediately pupated into the side that
we still recognise; City are more like a snake, having to shed
skins as they grow.
Having been burned first on Robinho – who has the talent but
lacks the fight – and then on Kaka, City's policy is one of gradual
improvement at high cost: this summer they have paid £63 million
for David Silva, Yaya Toure and Jerome Boateng. All three players
have genuine class but are they going to change City into title
contenders?
And who are these players replacing except for previous signings
of this regime? One of Gareth Barry or Nigel de Jong will have to
make way for Yaya Toure, while one of Kolo Toure or Joleon Lescott
will have to make way for Boateng. The same is true of Aleksandar
Kolarov. City have agreed to pay Lazio £17 million for the Serbia
left-back and presumably Wayne Bridge will slip back into being a
back-up.
How long will Sheikh Mansour keep agreeing to change-up like
this, making his own previous purchases redundant? How many skins
will City need to wriggle out of before they find the shape they
are comfortable with.
Beyond City there is no appetite for paying big wages. While
transfer fees still seem vulnerable to frankly arbitrary
fluctuation in valuation, wages are always a fairly steady
indicator of a player's real value. The problem is so many players
have a distorted view of what that value is, hence Chelsea letting
go of Joe Cole and City not agreeing a new deal with Shaun
Wright-Phillips.
Cole has apparently lowered his demands from £100,000 a week but
he is faced with the same problem that has dogged him in recent
seasons: finding regular football. Even if he does sign for Spurs,
does he start on the right ahead of Aaron Lennon? Or ahead of Luka
Modric on the left?
With four weeks to go, there is a general sense of stasis in the
market. Projected big moves have not happened. Cesc Fabregas looks
like having one more season with Arsenal. Barcelona, who agreed a
fee with Sevilla for left-sided wing-back Adriano on Friday, do not
have the money – or really the need – to force the issue with
Arsenal while Fabregas himself is not going to turn it public and
ugly.
It is his public standing that appears to be motivating Ashley
Cole's apparent desire to leave Chelsea – or more pertinently the
unwelcome scrutiny of the tabloid press – and with Jose Mourinho
having started work in earnest at Real Madrid, his former manager
will be keen to test the depth of his disenchantment with England.
Real, who have signed Angel di Maria and Pedro Leon, and are
pursuing Maicon, are reluctant to pay a huge sum for a 30 year-old,
however. And Chelsea, having trimmed their squad of Michael
Ballack, Joe Cole and Juliano Belletti, are under no pressure to
sell.
Manchester United and Arsenal are being circumspect – neither
manager believes there is much value in this market – while
Liverpool's concerns are about who is leaving rather than who is
arriving. They will just have to sit and watch City slowly
grow.