I believe this philosophy is known as the
gambler's fallacy. Just because u throw a coin and it lands on
heads 9 times in row, it doesnt mean that the 10th time has a
higher chance of getting tails.
Similarly in soccer, the chances of getting a draw in the
last match (out of 10 matches) is NOT higher just because the
previous 9 matches were no-draws, even though normal statistics
do show that 25% of matches end in draw. this is
because all 10 matches are Independent events. The
outcome of one match is totally not related to the
others.
I'll use the heads tails one to demonstrate. 0.5chance heads,
0.5chance tails
Chances of getting 9heads and finally 1 tail = (0.5^ 9) X
0.5
Chances of getting 9 heads and finally 1 head = (0.5^9) X
0.5
They are equal!
Based on your stats, I Agree that there's a 95% chance that
there will be at least ONE draw out of 10 games. If you bet $5 each
at one shot on 10 games, there's a 95% chance that you will earn
from at least one game
BUT the flaw with your system arises when you increase the
bet amount every time there is a no-draw. It just doesnt work that
way. The probability for EACH INDIVIDUAL match resulting in a draw
is Simply Simply 25%.