Malaysia: Indian Unrest and Early Elections
November 27, 2007 23 59 GMT
Summary
About 10,000 ethnic Indians took to the streets of Kuala Lumpur on
Nov. 25 in the second demonstration allowed inside the Malaysian
capital in a month. These demonstrations signal more chaos and
unpredictability to come before elections are announced. While
businesses may experience temporary impacts, the government is not
about to lose its grip on security in the city any time soon.
Analysis
In Kuala Lumpur's second demonstration in a month, about 10,000
ethnic Indians marched in the Malaysian capital's streets Nov.
25.
While instability can be expected in Kuala Lumpur in the run-up to
national elections, and business may experience short-term negative
effects, the Malaysian government is not likely to lose control of
the situation.
The Nov. 25 protest initially was organized to draw attention to a
$4 trillion lawsuit being launched in London by a Malaysian rights
group known as the Hindu Rights Action Force. The lawsuit demands
compensation from the United Kingdom for transporting Indians to
Malaysia to exploit the labor during the colonial era.
The protests did not take the Malaysian government by surprise --
it arrested three ethnic Indian leaders before the marches and
released them afterward. Notably, ethnic Indian protesters have
organized along racial lines as opposed to uniting behind a
nonrace-based issue (such as electoral fraud). Even more
significantly, opposition groups in Malaysia are portraying these
race-based riots as a milestone in the country's political
evolution, a sign of the looming ethnic crisis facing the coalition
government of Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
Unpredictability has grown in Malaysian politics ever since former
Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad stepped down in 2003. For more than
a decade, Chinese and other minorities have bristled at the
official government discrimination known as the Bumiputra policy,
which favors ethnic Malays at the expense of non-Malays. Ethnic
Malays make up more than 65 percent of the population, followed by
ethnic Chinese, who make up 26 percent and ethnic Indians, who make
up approximately 8 percent.
The Malay government established the flagship of pro-Bumiputra
policies -- the New Economic Policy -- in 1970, in the aftermath of
bloody riots between the majority Malays and the economically
better-off minority Chinese. Mahathir needed to get a grip on
rising social unrest, so he made the transfer of assets to ethnic
Malays the centerpiece of his domestic policies as well.
Establishing new business without some ethnic Malay ownership
became illegal. Inefficiency resulted.
The policy has since become deadweight around Malaysia's neck in
its bid to become more regionally competitive as a foreign
investment destination. The government recognizes this, but its
hands remain tied, since the bulk of the population would rise up
if its subsidies were cut. Much talk about rejuvenating the
Malaysian economy by freeing it of the restraints imposed by the
pro-Bumiputra policies -- such as the Multimedia Super Corridor
Plan -- has occurred, but little real action over the scrapping of
these rules has ensued. Upcoming elections are reinforcing the
cycle of talk without action.
Badawi is not bound by law to announce new elections until 2009,
but he has kept alive the possibility that early elections will be
called. Speculation that he could call snap elections has gone on
for most of 2007, but little has come of it. If something
eventually does, Badawi will time the election for when public
support for the opposition is at its weakest and internal cohesion
in his government at its strongest.
Recent scandals have demonstrated his ability to ride out episodes
that threaten to undermine the legitimacy of the ruling National
Front government. All that opposition groups can do for now is
grasp at any event or issue that can be used to highlight
weaknesses inside the government. Indian riots are one such issue.
Opposition factions -- such as Malaysian Deputy Prime Minister
Anwar Ibrahim's Keadilan party -- are using these riots to bolster
their case against other government policies, such as the internal
security act.
The recent demonstrations signal chaos and unpredictability to come
before elections are announced, but Badawi's grip on internal
security is not going to loosen any time soon. Badawi will continue
to talk about phasing out pro-Bumiputra policies, but nothing
significant is achievable before elections happen -- be they in
2009 or before.
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