They are so crowded now. They should have implemented a policy
of "No Child" for new couples.
Around three million extra babies will be born each year after
Beijing abolished its hugely controversial "one-child" policy to
allow all couples to have two offspring, officials said on Tuesday
(Nov 10).
Decades of strict, sometimes brutal enforcement left the world's
largest population - 1.37 billion people - ageing rapidly and with
a shrinking workforce that has heightened the challenges of slowing
economic growth.
The rule change, announced after a key Communist Party meeting last
month, will allow 90 million more Chinese women a second child,
said Mr Wang Pei'an, a vice-minister of the National Health and
Family Planning Commission.
But half of them are aged between 40 and 49, he added, limiting
their desire or ability to bear children.
Some might be "reluctant" to have more children, he said, while
some might be "unable to give birth" even if they wanted to.
Before the change, he added, 50 million women were already entitled
to have a second baby under various exemptions - rural families
whose first child is a girl, couples where one is an only child and
ethnic minorities.
The announcement of the change prompted speculation of a baby boom
giving the economy a boost, but analysts warn that many Chinese
couples do not want more children, particularly given the expense,
and the effects of the change remain unclear.
Relatively few have taken up the opportunities presented by reforms
allowing some people more children in recent years.
There were nearly 17 million births in China in 2014, and Mr Wang
said the policy liberalisation will see around three million extra
babies born each year over the next five years.
It would add a total of about 30 million people to the labour force
by 2050, he told a briefing.
"The across-the-board two-child policy in the short term will drive
consumption for housing, education, healthcare, housekeeping and
daily necessities, stimulate investment in relevant sectors and
increase job offerings," he said.
"It will have even stronger positive impact on economic expansion
in the long run," he said, adding China's "potential growth rate"
was expected to rise by 0.5 percentage points.
But after the change was announced, Mr Edward Hugh, an independent
economist based in Spain, warned: "There is a huge time lag, 15
years plus, before this has any impact."
China's family planning policy was instituted in the late 1970s,
restricted most couples to only a single offspring and for years
authorities argued that it was a key contributor to China's
economic boom and had prevented 400 million births.
It was enforced under a system of fines for violators and often
forced abortions, leading to heartrending tales of loss for
would-be parents.
Mr Wang said the two-child policy will be implemented after the law
is revised by the National People's Congress, China's rubber-stamp
Parliament that meets in March annually.
ST