December 11, 2012
Within two decades China will overtake the
US as the
world's largest economy, the report adds.
It also warns of slower growth and falling living standards in
advanced nations with ageing populations.
Global Trends 2030, issued to coincide with Obama's second term,
says it aims to promote strategic thinking.
Published every four years, the report from the National
Intelligence Council (NIC) aims to draw together a wide sweep of
"megatrends" driving transformation in the world.
'Slow
relative decline'
The NIC suggests that by 2030,
Asia will have more "overall power" than the US
and Europe combined - taking into account population size, gross
domestic product (GDP), military spending and investment in
technology.
The National Intelligence Council says it does not believe China
will become a superpower like the US
"China alone will probably have the largest economy, surpassing
that of the United States a few years before 2030," the report
says.
"Meanwhile, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia are likely
to continue their slow relative declines."
But the report says it does not anticipate that China will emerge
as a superpower in the mould of the US, forging coalitions to take
on international issues.
Speaking at a news briefing, Mathew Burrows, counsellor to the
National Intelligence Council said: "Being the largest economic
power is important... [but] it isn't necessarily the largest
economic power that always is going to be the superpower."
The "megatrends" identified by the report include individual
empowerment and transfer of power from the West to the global East
and South.
It highlights ageing societies and a growing middle class, as well
as diminishing natural resources, as key global themes.
Within the next two decades the US will achieve energy
independence, and the size of urban populations around the world
will rise sharply, the report says.
But, the report adds, questions about the global economy,
governance, evolving methods of conflict, regional spillover, new
technologies and the future role of the US could dramatically
impact the global picture over the next 20 years.
The study is the fifth in a series. The last edition was published
in 2008.
http://www.thedailystar.net/newDesign/latest_news.php?nid=43091
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/dec/10/chinese-economy-america-tectonic-shift
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2012-12-10/india/35725742_1_global-economy-largest-economy-key-global-players
Goodbye, Pax Americana
http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/12/intelligence-community-us-out-as-sole-superpower-by-151519.html
http://www.cfr.org/united-states/nic-global-trends-2030-alternative-worlds/p29631?cid=rss-fullfeed-nic__global_trends_2030__alter-121012