SINGAPORE: Another study has been released in
support of Singapore's need to attract new migrants to slow down
the impact of an ageing and dwindling population.
Released by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS),
the report is the first to take into account the country's
non-resident population.
This includes those on work permits, long-term
social visit passes and foreign students.
In its report, the institute sets out three scenarios.
One, where the proportion of foreigners remains at 25 per cent (or
one in four) of the total population.
Two, where this proportion drops to 20 per cent (or one in
five).
And three, where the proportion is raised to 33 per cent (or one in
three).
For all scenarios, it is assumed that Singapore will take in 30,000
new citizens or Permanent Residents every year, and the country's
Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24
The report states that a higher non-resident population will mean a
larger total population, from the current 5 million now to 6.8
million in 2030, if the proportion of foreigners in the population
is raised to 33 per cent.
And while the average population will still get older, a higher
proportion of non-residents will slow this process down.
The same is said for the support ratio between a working adult and
an elderly.
While the ratio will still decline, with more foreigners in the
midst, the impact will be somewhat mitigated.
Assuming the country's Total Fertility Rate remains at 1.24 and it
brings in 30,000 new citizens or PRs yearly with non-residents, the
support ratio now for every one elderly aged 65 and above to a
working adult is 1:10.3.
In about 20 years, this will be halved at 1:5.1, if foreigners make
up 33 per cent of the population.
If Singapore takes in no immigrants, there will be only about two
working adults supporting each elderly person, by then.
So, even with more foreigners in the mix, there will be fewer
Singaporeans supporting the elderly.
But the paper shows that the problem is exacerbated without taking
in migrants.
With or without foreigners, the labour force will be hit.
Even with the bumped-up crop of foreigners, the report shows the
growth in total labour force will dip from the average 3.6 per cent
annual growth which Singapore has been enjoying since the
70s.
With the current proportion of one in four foreigners in the midst,
the labour force will grow by 1.04 per cent over the next 10
years.
Raising the proportion to one in three will see the labour force
grow to 2.47 per cent annually, over the same period.
The IPS report comes just a week after a similar paper was issued
by the National Population and Talent Division.
Both papers present population projections based on certain
assumption and are not meant to be forecasts or predictions.
Together, the reports will form the basis of a national discussion
on populations issues that will culminate in a White Paper to be
released by the end of the year.
The White Paper on Population will set out issues important to
Singaporeans and map out strategies for a sustainable
population.
This will cover areas such as housing, transport and land
use.
- CNA/wk
