WASHINGTON — The United States has discovered nearly $1
trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, far beyond
any previously known reserves and enough to fundamentally alter the
Afghan economy and perhaps the Afghan war itself, according to
senior American government officials.
The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron,
copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium —
are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to
modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed
into one of the most important mining centers in the world, the
United States officials believe.
An internal Pentagon memo, for example, states that Afghanistan
could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium," a key raw material in
the manufacture of batteries for laptops and BlackBerrys.
The vast scale of Afghanistan’s mineral wealth was discovered by a
small team of Pentagon officials and American geologists. The
Afghan government and President Hamid Karzai were recently briefed,
American officials said.
While it could take many years to develop a mining industry, the
potential is so great that officials and executives in the industry
believe it could attract heavy investment even before mines are
profitable, providing the possibility of jobs that could distract
from generations of war.
"There is stunning potential here," Gen. David H. Petraeus,
commander of the United States Central Command, said in an
interview on Saturday. "There are a lot of ifs, of course, but I
think potentially it is hugely significant."
The value of the newly discovered mineral deposits dwarfs the size
of Afghanistan’s existing war-bedraggled economy, which is based
largely on opium production and narcotics trafficking as well as
aid from the United States and other industrialized countries.
Afghanistan’s gross domestic product is only about $12
billion.
"This will become the backbone of the Afghan economy," said Jalil
Jumriany, an adviser to the Afghan minister of mines.
American and Afghan officials agreed to discuss the mineral
discoveries at a difficult moment in the war in Afghanistan. The
American-led offensive in Marja in southern Afghanistan has
achieved only limited gains. Meanwhile, charges of corruption and
favoritism continue to plague the Karzai government, and Mr. Karzai
seems increasingly embittered toward the White House.
So the Obama administration is hungry for some positive news to
come out of Afghanistan. Yet the American officials also recognize
that the mineral discoveries will almost certainly have a
double-edged impact.
Instead of bringing peace, the newfound mineral wealth could lead
the Taliban to battle even more fiercely to regain control of the
country.
The corruption that is already rampant in the Karzai government
could also be amplified by the new wealth, particularly if a
handful of well-connected oligarchs, some with personal ties to the
president, gain control of the resources. Just last year,
Afghanistan’s minister of mines was accused by American officials
of accepting a $30 million bribe to award China the rights to
develop its copper mine. The minister has since been
replaced.
Endless fights could erupt between the central government in Kabul
and provincial and tribal leaders in mineral-rich districts.
Afghanistan has a national mining law, written with the help of
advisers from the World Bank, but it has never faced a serious
challenge.
"No one has tested that law; no one knows how it will stand up in a
fight between the central government and the provinces," observed
Paul A. Brinkley, deputy undersecretary of defense for business and
leader of the Pentagon team that discovered the deposits.
At the same time, American officials fear resource-hungry China
will try to dominate the development of Afghanistan’s mineral
wealth, which could upset the United States, given its heavy
investment in the region. After winning the bid for its Aynak
copper mine in Logar Province, China clearly wants more, American
officials said.
Another complication is that because Afghanistan has never had much
heavy industry before, it has little or no history of environmental
protection either. "The big question is, can this be developed in a
responsible way, in a way that is environmentally and socially
responsible?" Mr. Brinkley said. "No one knows how this will
work."
With virtually no mining industry or infrastructure in place today,
it will take decades for Afghanistan to exploit its mineral wealth
fully. "This is a country that has no mining culture," said Jack
Medlin, a geologist in the United States Geological Survey’s
international affairs program. "They’ve had some small artisanal
mines, but now there could be some very, very large mines that will
require more than just a gold pan."
The mineral deposits are scattered throughout the country,
including in the southern and eastern regions along the border with
Pakistan that have had some of the most intense combat in the
American-led war against the Taliban insurgency.
The Pentagon task force has already started trying to help the
Afghans set up a system to deal with mineral development.
International accounting firms that have expertise in mining
contracts have been hired to consult with the Afghan Ministry of
Mines, and technical data is being prepared to turn over to
multinational mining companies and other potential foreign
investors. The Pentagon is helping Afghan officials arrange to
start seeking bids on mineral rights by next fall, officials
said.
"The Ministry of Mines is not ready to handle this," Mr. Brinkley
said. "We are trying to help them get ready."
Like much of the recent history of the country, the story of the
discovery of Afghanistan's mineral wealth is one of missed
opportunities and the distractions of war.
In 2004, American geologists, sent to Afghanistan as part of a
broader reconstruction effort, stumbled across an intriguing series
of old charts and data at the library of the Afghan Geological
Survey in Kabul that hinted at major mineral deposits in the
country. They soon learned that the data had been collected by
Soviet mining experts during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan
in the 1980s, but cast aside when the Soviets withdrew in
1989.