WHO predicts 'explosion' of swine flu cases
BEIJING - The global spread of swine flu will endanger
more lives as it speeds up in the coming months and governments
must boost preparations for a swift response to a coming
"explosion" of cases, the World Health Organization said
Friday.
Many countries could see swine flu cases double every three to
four days for several months until peak transmission is reached,
once cold weather returns to the northern hemisphere, said WHO's
Western Pacific director, Shin Young-soo.
"At a certain point, there will seem to be an explosion in case
numbers," Shin told a symposium of health officials and experts in
Beijing. "It is certain there will be more cases and more
deaths."
The WHO says the swine flu virus _ also known as H1N1 _ has
killed almost 1,800 people worldwide, and has declared a
pandemic.
International attention has focused on how the pandemic is
progressing in southern hemisphere countries such as Australia
where winter _ and the flu season _ has started.
But it is in developing countries that the accelerated spread of
swine flu poses the greatest threat as it places underequipped and
underfunded health systems under severe strain, Shin said.
WHO earlier estimated that as many as 2 billion people could
become infected over the next two years _ nearly one-third of the
world's population.
Others said Shin's cautionary comments were needed but that they
were optimistic the spread would not be that serious.
Ann Moen, an influenza expert with the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention, said that if current trends continue it is
possible that the swine flu pandemic will not be worse than a
severe flu season.
"I think the world was preparing for an H5N1 (bird flu) pandemic
and we didn't get that. So maybe this is our supreme tabletop
exercise, a global sort of practice for something bigger," Moen
told The Associated Press.
Health officials and drug makers are considering how to speed up
production of a vaccine before the northern hemisphere enters its
flu season in coming months. Estimates for when a vaccine will be
available range from September to December.
Delegates from Bangladesh and Myanmar appealed for help in
procuring vaccines or making them more affordable for poorer
countries, saying they were left vulnerable while rich nations
pre-ordered most of the available stock.
"Developing countries like us, we have to fight this war without
vaccines," said Mya Oo, deputy health minister of Myanmar. He urged
pharmaceutical companies to consider selling the vaccines to
developing countries at just above cost.
WHO's flu chief, Keiji Fukuda, said the agency was working hard
on the issue, and noted that two drugmakers had pledged to donate
150 million doses of vaccine to poorer countries by the end of
October. He said more research was needed to determine how vaccines
will be priced.
"Among the many pandemic response issues, this is probably the
most critical issue: how we mobilize the vaccines, how we get them
to developing countries," Fukuda said.
WHO has stressed that most cases of swine flu are mild and
require no treatment, but the fear is that a rash of new infections
could overwhelm hospitals and health authorities, especially in
poorer countries.
Shin said governments must quickly educate the public, prepare
their health systems to care for severe cases and protect those
deemed more vulnerable to prevent unnecessary deaths.
"We only have a short time period to reach the state of
preparedness deemed necessary," Shin said. "Communities must be
aware before a pandemic strikes as to what they can do to reduce
the spread of the virus, and how to obtain early treatment of
severe cases."
Pregnant women face a higher risk of complications, and the
virus also has more severe effects on people with underlying
medical conditions such as asthma, cardiovascular disease,
diabetes, autoimmune disorders and diabetes, WHO chief Margaret
Chan said in a video address.
The last pandemic _ the Hong Kong flu of 1968 _ killed about 1
million people. Ordinary flu kills about 250,000 to 500,000 people
each year.
Swine flu is also continuing to spread during summer in the
northern hemisphere. Normally, flu viruses disappear with warm
weather, but swine flu is proving to be resilient.
--AP