October NODX numbers were – to put it mildly – crap. But going
by the bubbly sound bites from economist calls, it seems that
Singapore – which incidentally has the world’s highest
trade-to-GDP ratio of 370% - is “recovering” purely
because we will soon see STI at 2800 and Ang Mo Kio condos at
$1,500 psf, never mind the fact that we’re in our 18th
consecutive month of trade decline.
The key electronics pillar is crumbling like a scene
from “2012″, but with less star power.
Even John Cusack can’t save this one: On a YoY basis, electronic
NODX contracted by 14%, same as the decline in the previous month.
According to IE: “The decrease in electronic domestic exports was
largely due to lower domestic exports of parts of ICs, disk drives
and ICs.”
Here’s a detailed account of how the biggest economies of the
world are doing, and why they are getting so darn tightfisted with
their money.
The
Europeans are in the midst of a depression, but really, no one
cares, unless you were a Singaporean exporter to that part of
the world. According to the IE, “NODX to the EU 27
contracted by 22 per cent in October 2009, after
the 15 per cent contraction in the previous month, because of
decreases in both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic
NODX to the EU 27 contracted by 36 per cent in
October 2009, after the 37 per cent decline in the
preceding month.” Staggering.
More than 17% of the workforce in the US is either unemployed or
underemployed, so it’s not surprising that
they don’t feel the need to load up on the next iteration of the
iPod. From IE, “NODX to the US decreased by 11 per
cent in October 2009, after the 4.7 per cent decline in
the previous month, due to lower electronic NODX. Electronic NODX
to the US declined by 30 per cent in October 2009,
after the 6.2 per cent decrease in the previous month”
China, supposedly the bright spot in the world economy, turns
out to be interested only in buying SPC and Noble Group from
Singapore, instead of big screen plasma TVs. “NODX to China
decreased by 6.5 per cent in October 2009, after
the 15 per cent decline in the previous month, due to lower
electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports to
China decreased by 12 per cent in October 2009,
after the 42 per cent decline in the previous month.”
As we’ve pointed out before, the decline is structural,
not cyclical – The electronics industry in
Singapore is in terminal condition. Expect more large-scale
retrenchments by elec manufacturers as they move out in the next
budgeting cycle.
More at
http://singaporeuncletrader.wordpress.com/2009/11/19/october-nodx-plunged-yoy-taken-by-stock-punters-and-condo-flippers-as-great-news/