THE HAGUE, The Netherlands, Feb. 28, 2013
/PRNewswire/—
Shell today released new scenarios that explore two possible
ways the 21st century could unfold, with dramatically different
implications for society and the world’s energy system. One
scenario sees cleaner-burning natural gas becoming the most
important energy source globally by the 2030s and early action to
limit carbon dioxide emissions. The other sees solar becoming the
top source by about 2070, but with slower action to address the
threat of climate change.
The New Lens Scenarios, which look at trends in the economy,
politics and energy as far ahead as 2100, underscore the critical
role that government policies could play in shaping the future.
“These scenarios show how the choices made by governments,
businesses and individuals in the next few years will have a major
impact on the way the future unfolds,” said Chief Executive Officer
Peter Voser.
“They highlight the need for business and government to find new
ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the
development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy
efficiency.”
With the world’s population headed toward 9.5 billion by 2060
and the rapid growth of emerging economies lifting millions of
people out of poverty for the first time, the scenarios project
that world energy demand could double over the next 50 years.
Called Mountains and Oceans, Shell’s scenarios explore two
plausible future pathways for society. Each scenario dives into the
implications for the pace of global economic development, the types
of energy we use to power our lives and the growth in greenhouse
gas emissions. The scenarios look further into the future than many
other outlooks and highlight some surprising possible developments.
Both see global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) dropping to near
zero by 2100. One factor is increasing use of technology that takes
CO2 out of the atmosphere, for instance by
burning biomass to produce electricity, and then storing emissions
underground. Although the Oceans scenario sees a dramatic increase
in solar power, it also envisions greater fossil fuel use and
higher total CO2 emissions over the century
than the Mountains scenario, which will likely have more impact on
the world’s climate.
The scenarios highlight areas of public policy likely to have
the greatest influence on the development of cleaner fuels and
renewables, improvements in energy efficiency and on moderating
greenhouse gas emissions. They include:
Measures to promote the development of compact, energy-efficient
cities, particularly in Asia and other rapidly urbanising parts of
the world.
Mandates for greater efficiency in areas such as transportation
and buildings.
Policies to encourage the safe development of the world’s
abundant supply of cleaner-burning natural gas—and to promote its
wider use in power generation, transport and other areas.
A price on CO2 emissions and other
incentives to speed the adoption of technologies to manage
emissions, particularly carbon capture and storage (CCS).
Mountains
The Mountains scenario imagines a world of more moderate
economic development in which policy plays an important role in
shaping the world’s energy system and environmental pathway.
Cleaner-burning natural gas becomes the backbone of the world’s
energy system, in many places replacing coal as a fuel for power
generation and seeing wider use in transport.
A profound shift in the transportation sector sees global demand
for oil peaking in about 2035. By the end of the century, cars and
trucks powered by electricity and hydrogen could dominate the road.
Technology to capture carbon dioxide emissions from power stations,
refineries and other industrial installations becomes widely used,
helping to reduce CO2 emissions from the
power sector to zero by 2060. Another factor is the growth of
nuclear power in global electricity generation. Its market share
increases by around 25% in the period to 2060.
With these changes to the energy system, greenhouse gas
emissions begin to fall after 2030. Nevertheless, emissions remain
on a trajectory to overshoot the target of limiting global
temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius.
Oceans
The Oceans scenario envisions a more prosperous, volatile world
with an energy landscape shaped mostly by market forces and civil
society, with government policy playing a less prominent role.
Public resistance and the slow adoption of both policies and
technology limit the development of nuclear power and restrict the
growth of natural gas outside North America. Coal remains widely
used in power generation until at least the middle of the
century.
Without strong support from policymakers, carbon capture and
storage catches on slowly. By mid-century CCS
captures only about 10% of emissions, growing to about 25% in 2075.
This slow uptake is the main reason electricity generation becomes
carbon-neutral some 30 years later in the Oceans scenario than in
the Mountains scenario.
Higher energy prices encourage the development of hard-to-reach
oil resources, as well as the expansion of biofuel production. Oil
demand continues to grow through the 20s and 30s, reaching a
plateau after 2040. Liquid fuels still account for about 70% of
road passenger travel by mid-century.
High prices also spur strong efficiency gains and the
development of solar power. By 2070, solar photovoltaic panels
become the world’s largest primary source of energy. Wind energy
expands at a slower pace, due to public opposition to large
installations of wind turbines. Elevated demand for coal and oil, a
lack of support for CCS and less natural gas
development outside of North America contributes to about 25%
higher total greenhouse gas emissions than in the Mountains
scenario.
To explore Mountains and Oceans in more detail, download Shell’s
New Lens Scenarios at http://www.shell.com/scenarios.
Shell has a 40-year history of using scenario planning to
explore possible future landscapes and aid strategic
decision-making. The latest publication continues a tradition of
sharing summaries of the scenarios to contribute to the public
debate about possible ways to tackle some of society’s long-term
challenges.
Notes to Editors
Royal Dutch Shell plc
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Amsterdam, and New York stock exchanges. Shell companies have
operations in more than 100 countries and territories with
businesses including oil and gas exploration and production;
production and marketing of liquefied natural gas and gas to
liquids; manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products and
chemicals and renewable energy projects. For further information,
visit http://www.shell.com
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