WITH election buzz rising, Singapore’s talking point these days
centres around two questions: What will the future be like without
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew?
Will the young generation, whose voting strength is increasing,
continue to support the People’s Action Party (PAP) under its
present strategies without the founding leader?
An indication may come in the next few months from a benchmark
general election possibly without the participation of the
87-year-old Lee for the first time in 51 years.
Still in grief over the recent passing of his wife, Lee is also
weakened by a chest infection after a fall in Moscow. He is likely
to recover but will be, in his own words, “a different man” without
her.
Under the circumstances, Lee may decide to call it quits when
the PAP announces its candidates.
“No one can tell for sure,” said a party insider.
“But he has already done so much for the country. He has often
said he’ll step down if health forbids him from contributing.
Regretfully, I think the time has come.”
If it happens, history will start a new chapter after 51 years
of Lee’s powerful presence that helped to shape today’s
Singapore.
It will also, for better or worse, lead to major changes after a
period of continuity.
The result of the coming polls – as is Singapore’s future – will
largely be decided by the younger generation of both leaders and
the electorate.
Sensing a turning point, but not sure exactly how the longer
term future will turn out, Singaporeans are awaiting the polls with
some anxiety.
No date has been announced, but it is widely expected to take
place within the next six months. Foreign Minister George Yeo has
already told party activists to prepare for one at the year-end or
early 2011.
In 2006, the PAP won 82 seats on 66.6% popular votes while the
opposition got only two seats, but won one-third of the votes.
Some 47% of the seats were uncontested because there were no
opposition candidates, resulting in many PAP MPs winning seats by
walkovers.
Critics attribute it to a fear of Lee and his history of
detaining or suing his political foes. The Government, however,
attributes it to the poor performance of a fractious
opposition.
Things will dramatically change in a post-Lee Singapore.
He himself had years ago predicted that after he quits, more and
better quality Singaporeans would join the opposition to take on
the PAP.
He also said that his successors would have no problem winning
the next two elections (until 2016-17), but hinted that they could
be voted out if they failed to measure up to rising
expectations.
At the moment, the focus is on the ruling party’s self renewal,
like whether Lee and who among the older staunch Cabinet supporters
will leave to make way for new blood.
If it follows tradition, a quarter of its current 82 MPs will be
replaced by younger men and women.
Even without Lee or the fear factor, the ruling party as the
incumbent will still enjoy overwhelming odds over its fledgling
rivals, including the power to change rules and the support of a
compliant press.
Above all, the party is believed to retain broad support from
older, conservative Singaporeans (especially housewives), the
wealthy, the vast bureaucracy and upper middle class, who feel
“safe” under PAP rule.
Few in this group appear keen to opt for the unknown.
But the same cannot be said of the lower income group,
struggling wage earners and young professionals who have suffered
from the foreign influx.
“There are many jobless or underemployed people out there who
have become despondent and bitter,” one writer opined.
“And young professionals are worried at all times that ‘cheaper’
foreigners will replace them or retard their pay rise.”
Summing up this feeling was a recent letter “Linda” posted on
the Internet, which said: “My family members were staunch
supporters of PAP and Lee Kuan Yew who had improved most
Singaporeans’ standard of living through hard work and
education.
“But during these past 10 years, I have seen one by one, my
siblings, relatives and friends, become jobless. A qualified
accountant was told to apply for a job as chambermaid when she
approached (an official job help body).”
Linda said she had not believed this could happen, until the
past few years, “when I realised that so many foreigners were
taking up most of the office jobs, and true-blue Singaporeans were
being displaced”.
“Sorry Mr Lee and PAP, I have now second thoughts about you. But
thanks for the good years some of my generation had gone through –
but not now for my children,” she concluded.
Rising discontent will make the approaching election one of the
hardest to confidently predict by using past yardsticks.
In the wake of large-scale immigration, which was recently cut
down, Singapore is now bigger, and divided so much that it is
difficult to stereotype its people.
Lee’s old consensus society has disappeared long before him.
Despite this, Lee will leave behind a country that largely works
– an efficient, purposeful civil service and a strong
infrastructure. These will probably allow the PAP to retain a
mandate for a while with or without Lee.
But with the ground souring, his party will likely lose
popularity to a rising, more credible opposition both in votes and
the number of seats.
The coming polls will be crucial because it will show how the
young will vote and how political upstarts, both in the PAP and in
the opposition, will fare when things get hot.
They could throw up a future prime minister.
