The opposition needs at least a one-third representation in
parliament in order to block PAP resolutions. Some of the
resolutions that could have been blocked by oppositions in the past
5 years were:
1) GST increase
2) approval to build Casinos
3) compulsory CPF Life scheme
It is not credible for a particular minister to promise no GST
increase in the next 5 years. Give opposition the one-third
representation, then we can be sure. It is not credible for a
particular minister to promise affordable housing, lower living
cost, or higher salary increase. We must give opposition
one-third representation to ensure that for good.
Since there are 87 seats altogether, for a one-third
representation, the opposition need to win at least 29 seats.
This means the opposition need to win 6 GRCs, for
example:
1) Aljunied = 5
2) Bishan-Toa Payoh = 5
3) East Coast = 5
4) Holland-Bukit Timah = 4
5) Marine Parade = 5
6) Tampines = 5
This will give exactly 29. Opposition shall need to win
Hougang and Potong Pasir as well to be above 29. The winning
of these 2 SMCs together with the 6 RCs will be key and the only
guarantee that there is enough check and balances on PAP.
Notice that PAP has a very good "track record" of breaking
promises.
Here are the pros and cons of winning the 6 GRCs:
1) Aljunied: Low Thia Khiang team wins, George Yeo team
loses.
If Low wins, we shall have a very good voice in parliament.
If George Yeo loses, MM Lee said life will go on. Here
let me share a story. When Alan Greenspan, the Federal
Reserve Chairman of US, was to retire most people in the US
financial industry thought no one was good enough to replace Alan
Greenspan. They thought this would be a great loss to the
finance industry. After Alan Greenspan was replaced, then
they realized that Alan was wrong throughout his whole tenure.
His action has built up the conditions for the subprime
crisis. His low interest rate regime has caused US economy to face
a deflation danger now. This shows that whether a minister is
good or bad, we cannot tell while he is in the position. Only
history can tell.
2) Bishan-Toa Payoh: Chiam See Tong team wins, Wong Kan Seng
team loses.
If Chiam wins, we shall have the other very good voice in
parliament. If Wong loses, we shall have one DPM less.
How many DPMs do we need? Why do we need two DPMs? I am not
going to mention about the escaped prisoner case. I'll just say we
can most likely do without Wong as a minister.
3) Holland-Bukit Timah: Tan Jee Say team wins, Vivian
Balahrishnan team loses.
Tan Jee Say and Vincent Wijeysingha are very good candidates.
Just as PAP says they would like to renew themselves, Tan and
Vincent represents the renewal of the opposition. As for
Vivian, he does not seem to have a good national level track
record. I shall not mention the two glaring bad ones.
4) Marine Parade: Cheo Chai Chen and Nicole Seah team wins, Goh
Chok Tong team loses.
Goh Chok Tong need not be in the parliament or be a minister in
order to be a mentor within PAP. He can mentor all he like
within PAP. He was not holding a working portfolio anyway in
the last 5 years. Even if he is not elected, he shall
continue to be the chairman of MAS. This post does not require him
to be a minister. In order words, Goh Chok Tong was
essentially doing non-ministerial work in the past 5 years.
Therefore he can continue to perform his non-ministerial work
if not elected for the next 5 years. Meanwhile it is good to
have a NSP team in the parliament. This NSP team has good and
trustworthy candidates.
5) Tampines: Goh Meng Seng team wins, Mah Bow Tan team
loses.
Who wants Mah Bow Tan to continue to be minister of National
Development please raise your hand? Who wants Mah Bow Tan to
go back to manning the COE prices please raise your hands? Mah has
a track record of unpopular policies wherever he goes. Perhaps it
is time to end his political career. Goh Meng Seng on the other
hand has a good team.
6) East Coast: Eric Tan and Gerald Giam team wins, Lim Swee Say
team loses.
Lim Swee Say is the secretary general of the NTUC, else he is a
minister with no portfolio. Do we need so many ministers with no
portfolio? He can continue to be the secretary general of
NTUC even if not elected. Most recently, he was famous in the
youtube for saying, "When I look at my CPF account, I feel so
happy." For most people when they look at their CPF account,
they say zero because all the ordinary account savings are used to
pay housing loan. Raymond Lim is the transport minister. The
transportation situation now is plagued with jams (in MRT and
buses) and high prices. Meanwhile Gerald Giam who appeared in
the TV debate seemed promising. Eric Tan has a good team.
As for the rest of the GRCs, it would be good to give the
opposition maximum possible support. If anymore wins, then it
makes it easier to have one-third opposition representation.
Even if no more wins, it will give PAP a strong signal that
PAP need to listen to the people more. Most PAP candidates
will continue to exist and contribute to Singapore in public
service even if they lose the election. Therefore we would
not lose their services. Meanwhile a high percentage vote
gives the opposition valuable experience so that they can be better
in the next election, and be more credible to form an alternative
government.
I hope I'll see the day when there is one-third opposition
representation. This is the long term parliament structure we
want for our children. We do not know how election policies
will change after this election. Hence now is the best time
and maybe the only possible time. Some sacrifices have to be made
to start this off.
