http://www.temasekreview.com/2010/11/16/three-new-political-dynamics-that-may-influence-the-outcome-of-the-next-general-election/
I am glad to read from many
socio-political blogs that the forthcoming election will be
fiercely contested by opposition political parties.
One sure certainty is that there
will be lesser walk-overs as compared to previous elections whereby
the ruling party is handed over power almost on a platter
when opposition parties could not find enough candidates to field
for election.
I have also read that Kenneth
Jeyeretnam of Reform Party is fielding candidates to contest
in at least three GRCs, This can only be good news for
Singaporean voters – many of whom never have the chance to vote at
all.
More importantly, Kenneth has
being a breath of fresh air for the opposition politics, which
unfortunately is known more for its ineptitude and
inefficiency. He has single-handedly brought hope and
optimism to opposition politics in Singapore. Only time will tell
if he can be mentioned in the same calibre as his father
- the late J B Jeyeretnam.
One gets the feeling that this
election will be a watershed one – both for the ruling party and
Singapore as a whole. Some have even boldly predicted that
our country will never be the same again after this election. Even
though the opposition may not be able to topple the ruling party
from power, it will definitely make much headway in our local
politics and act as a strong alternative.
I have voted in three other
elections consecutively but have never felt the ground
shifted so much.
The mixed emotions felt by the NTU
student during the recent SM Goh Chok Tong’s public
forum must have jolted the ruling party out of its’ senses as
the population struggled to come to terms with a heavy foreign
presence unseen before since independence in 1965.
More significantly, many citizens
questioned the need to defend a country that is populated by
temporary foreign residents who come in and make their quick
exit after accumulating sufficient benefits
during their short stay here.
Foreigners the main push
factor for alternative votes
Very clearly,
the main push factor for majority of citizens to vote
otherwise is the extreme discomfort
associated with the huge influx of foreigners allowed
into our country.
Our Prime Minister’s regular
rhetoria that ushering in foreigners with open
arms will help bring jobs to our country remains largely
unprovened.
In fact, foreign professionals
have competed fiercely for jobs with our local
citizens in all sectors and they have consequently
helped pushed up housing prices. Our locals face
re-employment pressure in all possible hiring positions –
senior management, middle management, lower middle management,
junior executive among others.
Many displaced executives –
retrenched two years ago during the financial crisis – are
now more ready to cast their votes against the
ruling party as they have seen how their
livelihood has been severely threatened by the
government’s open-door globalisation policy.
There are not enough solid evidences to prove
that by welcoming in more foreigners, the local population will
ultimately benefit.
On the contrary, we see how many
highly educated experienced PMETs struggle to find jobs and often
if they found one, its a junior position that carried lesser
pay compared to their previous jobs.
Such swing votes coming from a
displaced population could help the opposition candidates
capture at least one GRC as the best opposition performance in
Aljunied GRC during the previous election, showed a loss of
only 6%.
Workers’ Party’s Chairman Ms
Sylvia Lim has also excelled in her non-constituency Member of
Parliament (NCMP) role and many voters may decide to give her a
chance to be legitimately elected as their Member of
Parliament (MP).
Many of these swing voters may
also be loyal PAP supporters as their basic needs were
met all along and the future seems bright. It will be silly
to vote against the ruling party who has helped them achieve so
much in life even though they have weak human rights record and
freedom of speech is mostly curtailed..
Now, they felt betrayed by a
government who has brought in so many foreigners and denying
them the basic right to make a living for their
families.
Some also suffered from the
ill-effects of prolonged unemployment resulting in bankruptcy,
forced home re-possession by banks and family’s
breakup.
In fact, many Singaporeans see no
real future for themselves especially if they have reach the
crucial middle-aged segment of their life whereby jobs are
scant once they are being retrenched.
Contractual work arrangements have
also rendered long-term work stability a foregone conclusion among
our ageing executives. High business cost and a lack of
entrepreneurial aptitude have prevented many jobless
executives from venturing out of their working-life comfort
zone.
Voters are smart people and they
will want take a chance on an alternative if given the
choice. Singaporeans are are considered very pragmatic voters and
their loyalty will shift if their standard of living and
livelihood have being compromised.
I have listed three new
political dynamics in play and they may significantly
influence the outcome of this coming general
election:-
1. Popularity of
socio-political websites
We have seen the recent
phenomenal rise in popularity of socio-political
websites and this has mainly benefited the opposition parties.
Many netizens have switched to viewing articles posted on
such sites as they refuse to believe anymore on the reportings
of our state-controlled newspapers.
For example, Mr Gerald Giam, a
candidate for Workers’ Party, has used his blog -geraldgiam.sg to
showcase his political views to his supporters on a regular basis.
He enjoys a total readership of a few thousand readers
daily.
Without the facility of a blog, Mr
Giam is unlikely to enjoy such prominence as the state presses will
not give him much space in their columns.
The state-controlled press – long
suspected to be the propanganda mouthpiece of the ruling party,
suddenly faces strong competition from our alternative online
media – all run by volunteers without any proper
funding.
Articles posted on socio-political
websites are known to be more balanced and transparent but they are
generally critical of the government policies.
That is probably the reason why
New Temasek Review is in the news lately and they have to
change their website name from Temasek Review to New Temasek Review
as a result of a website name infringement charge laid
by Temasek Holdings.
The huge popularity enjoyed by
social-political websites is unprecendented and the
government has not been
successful in tapping on this new channel of
communication.
They can control the presses but
its another matter to monitor and curtail information put up
by bloggers using overseas IPs and web hosts. The
government can threaten and even haul them to the police stations
for interrogation but they can’t control all of them without
suffering a backlash on our already-rotten freedom of speech
record.
In fact, the government has
to close down their own PAP Youth website as it is populated by
anti- government comments – definitely a big slap to their
face.
The two most popular
socio-political websites: The Online Citizen and New Temasek Review
have enjoyed daily readership figures in the tens of
thousands and they could hugely influence how people
will vote in the next election as most of their articles are
pro-alternative.
Though the state has always
believed to have control the press, not many can deny that
socio-political blogs belong to the voice of the common
people.
More importantly, they have become
a focal point for voices of dissent to gather together and in unity
people find strength and courage to speak out even though its all
hidden behind a moniker.
Most socio political blogs also
provide sufficient air time for opposition figures to showcase
their views and abilities – a luxury which has all
along been denied by our state-controlled presses.
A lack of open channel to
voice out their frustration has invariably helped political blogs
to flourish as netizens gather online as a show of strength, Many
also use this communication channel to vent out their frustrations
by posting anti-government comments.
The fact that our socio-political
blogs have enjoy such immense popularity shows that there is
a large group of people out there who is feeling displaced and
frustrated and have nowhere or no one to turn to for
redress.
2. Resurgence of
opposition politics
There is also a huge
unprecedented interest in opposition politics. Young people
have joined opposition parties in droves and many are ready to
even stand for election.
Many are capable well-educated
citizens who want to do more than just cast a vote.
They are probably in their early
20s to late 30s , university-educated and more significantly have
not seen the intimidation tactics of the current regime –
used by the ruling party to deter people from joining opposition
politics with good effect.
People in their early 40s to late
50s have seen how the ruling party chastised voices of
dissent so much so that they are very cautious to have any
association with any opposition voices.
Those who dare and want to join a
opposition party in the past has to back away as their family
members pleaded with them, some on bended knees, not to do so
for the sake of their family members and careers.
Their fear is understandable
as opposition candidates hardly win in an election and they have to
face the adverse consequences of their decision which may
affect their livelihood. For the sake of the family, many
potential candidates have turn away to be opposition
candidates.
However, many young people
have seen the pathetic state of our
opposition politics and wanted to do something active on
their own to spark a political reformation.
Many young people have
thrown caution to the wind as they could not take
the stifling political environment anymore.
Some of these candidates
have just returned from abroad and after been
influenced by democracy-driven values overseas are more ready
to push for political changes in our country.
In the past, opposition party
candidates were known to have been sued after election and
some have fled abroad to escape lawsuits filed against them
by the ruling party.
It is however heartening to know
that lawsuits were not filed against anyone standing as a candidate
against the ruling party during the last election and it is hope
that this will be the norm in the future.
The resurgence of opposition
politics can only spell hope for those who yearn for
political reform in our country – thanks mainly to our young
citizens who have walk the talk and want to do something to
spark changes for our country.
3. Bad
News All The Way
Since the last election in 2006,
bad news have followed the city state like a plague. From regular
floods hitting the island state to the infamous terrorist
escape of Mas Selmat, Singaporeans have never seen so many
unnatural events happened within a short period in their life
time.
It is as if such calamities
were waiting to be unfolded and they have been hiding
all along somewhere waiting for the right time to
explode.
We were given an early
warning of things to come when the financial crisis hit us
badly in 2007/8 - jn fact we have yet to fully
recover from the downturn even though our GDP has reached
skyrocketing proportions.
Many of the retrenched were
high-level executives unlike the previous recession in 2000/1
period when many rank-and-file workers were laid off.
The same maligned
manufacturing sector continued to revamp and to reduce
cost, many manufacturers have moved to cheaper
locations in China, Vietnam, Indonesia and Philippines.
Many retrenched executives still
remained jobless till today as the whole industry has
completely transformed and many found difficulty
transitioning to a new career despite all kinds of upgrading
programmes in place.
Their obsolete skillsets, high
expectations and matured age were challenges that could not
be resolved easily. The influx of foreigners have worsened their
plight.
More negative news followed when
Temasek Holdings, our state-controlled sovereignty investment
giant, revealed that their losses ran into the tens of
billions.
There were also critical reports
from foreign presses stating that our investment strategies were
flawed and we bought into toxic banking stocks when many fund
houses were selling.
For example, we bought a stake in
the Australian childcare’s ABC Learning Centre for close to $1
billion dollars only to find the childcare giant collapsed few
months later. Much of the investment has gone down the
drain.
Singaporeans were shell-shocked as
all along they have trusted the government to be prudent on
investing the country’s reserves. There were cries for
more transparency in Parliament but the government remained
tight-lipped on their investment portfolio and strategy further
frustrating the general population.
Things got worse for the
government when terrorist Mas Selamat managed to escape from
a light-security detention centre three years ago. The irony
of it all was the fact that Mas Selamat – a limping unfit prisoner,
has managed to remain uncaptured for many months despite an
island-wide manhunt search before the Malaysian authorities nabbed
him in nearby Johore.
The way the government explained
away its incompetence and subsequently laid the blame on
junior subordinates, resulting in their dismissal, have angered
many netizens.
Many are also dissatisfied with
how ministers could escape scoff free and refused to
take full responsibility for blunders committed in
governance.
More seriously, many now feel
that such monopolistic style of governance is the
result of a one-party dominated Parliament and this may be a
big push factor for many to vote for more opposition voices
during the next election.
Even the sky did not spare the
island state from when flash floods regularly threatened the
country’s first-world image. The floods were an embarrassment
to our country’s famed superb insfrastructure and
top-notch business efficiency image.
Many netizens took it as a sign
from the heavens to chastise our country for opening the door to
vices generated from our two integrated resorts.
News of prostitution, money
laundering, cheating, corruption, gambling addiction took centre
stage as our country comes to terms with two mega-size casinos at
its doorsteps.
The growth-at-all-cost slogan of
the government does not go down well with many people as the social
costs were just too great.
The introduction of the two mega
resorts have not really translate into direct job opportunites for
the general population – as promised by the Prime Minister. Many
citizens felt cheated by a leader who is only concerned with
growing the country’s wealth without really showing concern on how
to spread the benefits to the general population.
In fact, many of the jobs
generated are service-related and employers prefer to hire
foreigners for their low cost and service-orientaed
nature.
Many people now suspect that the
government has now lost its plot to re-chart the ship that is
sailing aimlessly in unchartered waters for the past few
years.
Having tried their hand at
pharmaucetical, bio-technology, wafer manufacturing and other
high-tech industries, the government could not really steady the
ship and provide clear direction on the right way to
sail.
Though GDP figures are on the rise
and unemployment has dipped, the journey remains turbulent
and uncertain for many.
In fact, there is already talk of
a technical recession for the latter part of this year as the US
and Europe unemployment rate remains high – around
7.5%.
The recent demise of Mrs Lee Kuan
Yew has also given rise to speculation that strongman MM Lee
Kuan Yew may not contest the next election as he is still
grieving and lost the combative willpower.
Losing MM Lee for the next
election is like not having Pele on the Brazilian football
team. His mere presence in political rallies have
won votes especially from those in the age group
of 50s – 70s. His huge influence on any election is undeniable and
his absence now will likely help swing some votes to the
opposition.
The recent high-profiled court
case against the British author Mr Alan Shadrake has also not
endeared the government to a young population who is concerned
about the poor freedom of speech and human rights record
here.
Singapore has just gone through a
turbulent five-year period and many people, who are affected
in one way or another by either the influx of foreigners or the
recent financial crisis, will have no hesitation to shift their
support to the opposition this time round.
Conclusion
The ground has certainly shifted
against the ruling party during this turbulent period and many
citizens can sense that change may soon arrive.
It is almost certain that the
ruling party will suffer a drop in majority votes even though they
have a large contingent of civil servants and newly-converted
foreign-breed citizens rooting for them.
They could account for at least
10% of the voting population – a 100,000-strong civil service
and roughly 30,000 new citizens parachuted in.
Most political analysts foresee a
very tight election this time round with some GRCs decided by
a mere single-digit votes.
One or more GRCs may fall to the
opposition as voters have more push factor to vote for an
alternative party having suffer directly from the policies of the
government.
Unless the ruling party could
implement significant changes in the near future, we may see the
emergence of a two-party governance – long hail as the hallmark of
a true-blue democratic country.
Thanks & Warmest
Regards,
.
Gilbert Goh
* The writer is the founder and president of Transitioning,
a non-profit society dedicated to cater to the emotional needs of
the unemployed in Singapore.
