coe prices in future

incredibleduck SG

lets try to gather some views on coming coe prices, mite be benificial to ppl who are considering if they shld buy a car now, or hold back (like me...!)

most ppl seem to tink that come april, coe quota will go down, and hence coe will prices will go back up.

others think that with the govt's ultimate aim being to make costs of ownership lower, coe will go down.

so what are your vieW? Wink

tick SG

The only way is up....till $15k Shocked

benhur80 SG

most probably will go up....i feel...

come april,the quota of coe released by lta will decrease thus coe will go up...maybe only...depends on the govt.

any comments?

why does singapore gov release so many coe?the reason being to rescue singapore from asian crisis...and of course,there are many ways to do that,like govt relax on the downpayment of flats to 5%...relaxing coe also plays a part....

actually,govt have to relax the coe pricing.....lan lan...why?if they die die hold on to 30K for a piece of paper......singaporean die die wont buy,coz economics unstable,then...everyone die....so,govt give in one step,to allow singaporean to be able to own a car,then singaporean also steady steady give in another step to help govt by loaning more $$ from the bank...if bank earns $$,naturally govt earns...thats explain why the 5% downpayment of the flat,and the cheap COE.....

so,depending on whether u want to grab this chance to be able to own a car of your own,or wait and see...(govt may decide,economic over,then jack up the coe....or may lower even further after the coming elections...all depends)

conclusion....up to you!!haha

cornyfish2000 SG

It will definitely go up.

Yes, because of the quota. The lowest point is over.. in fact i think the next 2 March biddings will shoot up by quite abit from the current 10k, cos many people who have been holding back for the past few biddings hoping for prices to drop will jump in this time, before April.

Praetorian111 SG

It will generally be held at a consistence level. Remember election is coming.
Laughing

cornyfish2000 SG

Hmmm well, the COE prices is not controlled by the govt but rather, by the number of people who jump in at each bidding... The only thing that the govt can do to lower the COE prices is to increase the number of COEs released during the bidding, but so far it has not announced any intention to do so (any more)..

wbucket SG

Actually now the COE is controlled by the few Major car dealers.

charlize SG

Whether it goes up or down, only the government makes money from it.

Not you.

Not me. Laughing

incredibleduck SG

hmm, but strange why issit that ppl seem to noe the coe quota will be reduced come april? got some spies from LTA meh?

because i thought i read somewhere before that the quota will remain more or less the same in 2006, as compared to 2005? but i dunno, mebbe i was mistaken....

impt thing is, how do ppl noe it will go up?

benhur80 SG

politics….haha

kmkm SG

People are so price sensitive and conditioned to 8-10k COE now, so COE very unlikely to go up to 15k. Rather than down, new COE quota may go up since its based on no. of vehicles deregistered and guided by a 3% increase of cars on the road. No. of vehicles deregistered in 2005 is still higher than 2004. In fact, even if the new quota remains the same, COE will most likely even go down.

Observe that COE continues to trend lower at similar bids to quota ratio from these 2 events which happened at similar COE quota of ~2800 but evoked the same knee jerk reactions (Cat A COE):

When COE fell SUDDENLY from 15.3k to 12k in Oct05, 5927 bids followed in the next tender. Result was COE went up +2.5k to 14.5k. COE then went down -4.5k to 10k level GRADUALLY.

When COE fell SUDDENLY from 10.6k to 8k in Jan06, 5517 bids followed in the next tender. Result was COE went up +2.3k to 10.3k. Hence, if COE quota remains similar, its very likely to see COE going down GRADUALLY again. This means COE may even reach 5-6k subsequently.

Other reasons which dampen COE increase are:

1) Govt policy is to shift cost of car from ownership to usage.

2) Oil price, parking, ERP will increase vehicle usage costs and people will be discouraged to pay more for vehicle ownership.

3) Those who want to change new cars will have to fork out more cash since paper value of car nowadays have dropped so much, which will compensate with COE downwards.

4) Interest rates going up will make it more expensive to own car effectively, putting downward pressure on COE.

Rolling Eyes

toyota-corolla SG

my mum said that if coe is so cheap!! in the future there might not even have coe. just like malaysia
Laughing

Praetorian111 SG

Unless they found a better way of controlling the number of cars being registered, I believe the system of COE is to stay.
Alot of car buyers generally do not take into account of the misc. cost that involve in owning a car. For eg, petrol cost, carpark cost etc. Even if these cost remain high potential car buyers will still own a car being the prestige and convience that tags along with owning a car.
Malaysia is difference, their land area is thousands times bigger than singapore. However, ownership of cars remain high for many. If you match their salary to the cost of ownership of a car.

toyota-corolla SG

yea i get what you mean

incredibleduck SG

dang! hope it dun go down too much though, coz i already booked my car at 10k coe... Laughing

anyways, no choice though, if it falls, good for everyone who will benefit later... i m fine becoz 10k for me is low enuff....

though i heard something abt them changing the computation formula for coe come apr, thats why coe quota will go down, but hey, it mite well be all hearsay!

Surprised

pqr SG

what was the cause for the $50 COE that time?

rumour was that the fleet of taxi changing ...dun know true or not

BufPuf SG

is it true that next yr no COe liao?

pqr SG

i dun think any1 can 100% confirn that...unless they r from LTA...

is has been a rumour that no COE for quite some time and gov will get the $ lost from COE from ERP instead

cornyfish2000 SG

Not possible. There is no way the government can recover the lost income via ERP charges if the COE system is scrapped. As it is now, the COE remains a major source of revenue for the government.

Another reason is that the COE system allows the govt to control exactly the number of cars on the road (via the number of COEs released). This is to prevent traffic congestion on our small island. If COE is scrapped, there would be no control over the number of cars on our roads, and that's a situation that nobody wishes to have.

That the COE system will be scrapped is mere wishful thinking. Laughing

pqr SG

i know it does not sound logical to scrapped COE...but u never know...what if the ERP charges goes to like $5 or more etc...

Singaporean will only complain but accept later...what to do