Some Chinese scholars worry that the new US defense strategy
could promote strategic competition in the long term. The most
likely theater for crisis? The South China Sea.
By Peter
Ford, Staff
writer / January 6, 2012
As the
Pentagon puts China firmly
in its sights with a new US defense
strategy that makes Asia its
top priority, Chinese analysts are keeping their cool. Though
targeting Beijing will
complicate US-China relations, they say there is no reason to
panic.
“Military guys always seek the best but prepare for the worst,”
says Jin Canrong, deputy head of the School of International
Studies at Renmin
University in Beijing, commenting on the strategy document
unveiled Thursday by US Defense
Secretary Leon Panetta. That document calls for an increase in
the number of US troops in Asia both in the face of uncertainty
over China’s strategic goals, and North Korea's
future.
Officially, Beijing was mute Friday about the US strategic shift to
its doorstep. Neither the Foreign Ministry nor the Defense Ministry
answered requests for comment. But several scholars closely linked
to foreign policy-making circles say they do not see the move as a
fundamental shift in US attitudes to China.
“It
does not mean that the US is trying to contain China” as it once
sought to contain the former Soviet Union,
says Yuan Peng, head of the US department at the China
Institute of Contemporary International Relations, a
government-linked think tank. “They are hedging, but they still
hope to have positive relations.”
American analysts agreed.
“This document emphasizes the pessimistic scenario. It is
necessarily an insurance policy,” says Denny Roy, a security expert
at the East-West Center in Hawaii. “You don’t
see the full breadth of US policy toward China here.”
That
does not mean, however, that Washington is
not worried by China’s intentions as it modernizes its military,
building advanced stealth jet fighters, developing an anti-ship
missile that could keep US vessels 1,500 km (about 932 miles) away
from the Chinese coastline, and refurbishing an old Soviet aircraft
carrier with which to run sea trials.
“China would not be wrong to conclude that the US is concerned by
its military modernization and its intentions,” says Bonnie Glaser,
an analyst with the Center
for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“But it would be wrong to say China is now a US adversary.
“There are areas where we compete and areas where we cooperate,”
she adds. “The key is to stop the competition from slipping into
strategic rivalry that would overwhelm the cooperation.
Some scholars here worry that the US shift, while posing no
immediate threat to China, might promote such strategic competition
in the longer term.
“It will damage mutual trust, and if it poses a potential threat
it could lead to a vicious circle and deepen misperceptions,”
argues Professor Yuan. “It is very natural for the Chinese to think
that they are a very important target, so it is not
constructive.”
Sun Zhe, a security expert at Tsinghua
University’s department of International Relations, shares that
fear. In the face of Washington’s new posture, he says, “China
probably has no choice but to adopt hedging itself. “We won’t give
up talking to the US but we will continue to strengthen our
military power,” he predicts. “I am afraid of an escalation of
military competition and a potential crisis.”
The most likely theater for such a crisis would be
the South China
Sea, believed to be rich not only in fisheries but in oil and
other minerals. China has laid sovereignty claims to almost the
whole sea, bringing it into conflict with Vietnam, the
Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia,
and Brunei, which all
maintain claims to specific islands and atolls.
Washington has officially declared itself neutral in these
disputes, but US officials have recently done little to hide their
support for China’s neighbors.
Washington’s new “tilt” toward the Asia Pacific region “implies
that if China does something to prevent US power projection, the US
will fight back,” suggests Professor Sun. “That hurts our bilateral
relations.”
The new US defense strategy, however, “is only a new step in the
same direction” that Washington has been taking for two years
toward greater involvement in Asia, points out Professor Jin.
“China’s leaders have had some psychological preparation for this,”
he says. “It won’t shock them … and they won’t be very
nervous.”
One thing it will do however, he adds, referring to the Chinese
military, the People’s Liberation Army, “is give the PLA an excuse
to ask for more money. I think they’ll get a bigger budget
now.”
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2012/0106/China-stays-cool-as-new-US-defense-strategy-targets-Asia
