Malaysia would never have risked war over the water dispute.
From what I understand, the Malaysian government guards the
"taps" to Singapore and ensures anyone who wants to turn off the
taps are far far away. If they didn't guard those properly,
they were gonna have trouble guarding something else...
As for Singapore bashing, its probably not the end of it though
I suspect there will be some back-channel communication with
Singapore's leaders on a personal level. That way, the SG
government won't be too stunned to reply inappropriately.
That has happened before from what I understand.
As for a Malaysian political crises, the best they've ever done
was, "Look at how our poor Singaporean Malays are suffering across
the causeway?" Then some Singaporean Malay MP will just come up and
politely ask them wtf they are talking about. To infiltrate
Singapore and stir up ethnic unrest would be a little tough... more
on the "how" rather than the why.
IMO, how Pedra Branca could have turned ugly.if not for
both country's willingness to submit their contention to ICJ.
A possible scenario: Malaysian activists heads towards the
Horsburgh Lighthouse in boats with the Malaysian Coast Guard in
trail to "maintain order." The activists in a number of boats
decide to land on Pedra Branca to plant the Malaysian flag to
assert the claims on behalf of their country. SAF troops
guarding the lighthouse turns out, some with Batons and Shields
while others loaded their rifles. Loudspeakers blare to
asking them to turn away or else... unheeded.
The activists land on the piers and some beach on the rocks.
Most rush out with video cameras while one plants the
Malaysian flag on the rocks. The soldiers respond by heading
down to the rocks to turn the activists away but are outnumbered.
A scuffle breaks out as the activists surrounds the soldiers.
The soldiers retaliate with their batons as they try to push
them back. The soldiers standing higher up are nervous, the
sharpshooter carefully scans each an everyone of the activist from
his vantage point.
More soldiers rush to the rocks and the piers with batons.
Suddenly, two of the activists pull out concealed pistols and
shoots the baton-armed soldiers and continue wildly shooting,
injuring soldiers and activists alike. The sharpshooter spots
the first shooter and shoots but hits another man instead. He
shoots again quickly and takes down one of the shooters. The
rest of the activists scatters, but with little place to run, get
caught in the crossfire. Another man was shot before the last
shooter was taken down. The nervous soldiers sees men rushing
towards them, and in fear of getting shot and despite warnings to
stop, they fire warning shots...
The Malaysian Coast Guard vessels seeing the shots fired,
quickly report the incident back to their head quarters while the
commander of the lighthouse security contingent does the same.
Soon, both RMN and RSN gunboats arrive on the scene...
At the same time, both Prime Ministers Yee and Abdul get an
urgent phone call from their defense ministers...
Both Navies stand off at Pedra Branca. The soldiers
quickly detain the rest of the activists while some of them fled
back on the boats they came on. The RSN gunboat attempts to
pursue and despite the warnings, they make it across the contested
invisible line in the water. Those who fled were detained by
the RMN and Coast Guard instead.
Meanwhile, both governments swing into action. The
Malaysian Government demand the extradition of both detained
activists and SAF soldiers involved in the shooting for trials in
Malaysia on the basis of their sovereignty claims over the Batu
Puteh. The Singaporean government refuses and will
investigate the incident as Pedra Branca is under Singapore's
sovereign territory.
Video footage that fled the lighthouse soon circulate on youtube
and the various news channels. Protests occur in Johor where
Singaporeans heading back across the causeway are harassed,
attacked or detained. Most of the Singaporeans remain boh
chup, while some are a little kiasu actually start stocking up
water, rice and canned food. Reservists are called up as
green men start flashing on the TVs and cinemas while stickers were
pasted on doors.
Back in Johor, Malaysian infantry were called in to action to
assist the police in maintaining order as more protesters are
mobilized via the internet. The SAF views the involvement of
the Malaysian Army warily..................... *you can continue
the rest*
Fortunately for us who live in reality, the ICJ saw to it that
this scenario would not happen as both countries have given their
word to abide by the rulings of the court.
As long as nobody does anything stupid, Singapore and Malaysia
should continue to enjoy warm bilateral relations. =D
hur the plot is kinda of dry......