Looks like The Middle East "Peace" is running out of
options.
One Corner we have Israel vs Hezbollah
"There is a possibility, albeit small, that Israel may be preparing
to launch a new surprise war and is readying its people for such an
eventuality," Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised
address.
"If Israel plans on pulling anything during the manoeuvres (May 31
to June 4), we're sending it a message that we stand ready and they
will fail," he added. "We will not bury our heads in the
sand.
"We must take preventive measures for the duration of the
manoeuvres."
Another Corner we have Israel may pre-empt Iran's latest
missiles.
Reuters - Iran test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile
yesterday which Western analysts believe is capable of hitting
targets in Israel, as well as southern Europe and U.S. bases in the
Middle East.
The test, announced yesterday by Iran's media, was confirmed by the
U.S. and other Western countries.
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, in the midst of an election
campaign, commented on the test-firing of the missile during a
speech in the northern town of Semnan.
The launch led to the cancelation of a two-day visit to Iran by
Italy's foreign minister, Franco Frattini, who was close to
boarding a plane to Tehran when he heard that Ahmadinejad insisted
on meeting him in Semnan, the site of the launch. The minister
called off the whole trip, fearing Ahmadinejad would use it as a
propaganda tool ahead of presidential elections next month.
Ahmadinejad told the cheering crowd that he had been informed by
the country's Defense Minister of the launch. He described the test
as successful, and said the new missile, Sejil 2, contains
"advanced technology," "precision guidance," and that it is able to
exit the atmosphere before reentering to strike "precisely on
target."
Iranian media described the two-stage, solid-fuel missile as having
a 2,000 kilometer range.
The solid-fuel surface-to-surface missile is a new version of the
Sejil that Iran said it had successfully tested in November.
Iranian Defense Minister Mostafa Mohammed Najjar indicated to
Iranian television in November that the Sejil 2 missile had a range
of around 2,000 kilometers.
Yesterday, Najjar said that the missile was "equipped with a new
navigation system as well as precise and sophisticated
sensors".
Israeli security experts say that the test of a missile with a
2,000 kilometer range is indicative of impressive technological
advances on the part of Iran. They note that the missile improves
Iran's strategic capabilities and will shorten the response time
for Israel's defenses.
According to Yiftah Shapir of the Institute for National Security
Studies at Tel Aviv University, the Sejil 2 is unlike the Shehab 3,
whose known range is 1,300 kilometers and is based on Soviet and
North Korean Scud technology. Rather it is closer to a Pakistani
missile, the Shaheen II, which is based on Chinese
technology.
This suggests that it might be the Pakistanis who transferred
technology to Iran for the development of the Sejil ballistic
missile.
The advantage of the missile is not only its size, but its
two-stage, solid-fuel propulsion system. The Shehab missiles
operate on liquid fuel, requiring longer preparation time for
launch, and are therefore more vulnerable to attack, but
solid-state rockets are quicker to launch, and cut down on the
warning time for the defenders.
However, experts say that the warhead capacity of the new missile
is similar to that of the Shehab, which is estimated to weight up
to 700 kilograms.
Deputy Israeli Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon downplayed the
importance of the new missile, but suggested that its range "should
worry the Europeans."
Ayalon also underlined that Iran is trying to develop a ballistic
missile with a range of 10,000 kilometers that could reach the
coast of the United States.
Paul Ingram, executive director of the British American Security
Information Council (BASIC), stressed that it's difficult to
determine if the Sejil 2 test launch is a worrisome development,
but that it sounded a lot like campaign posturing by
Ahmadinejad.
"It does sound like campaign rhetoric," Ingram said. "It is no
coincidence that we are in the middle of an election campaign.
Ahmadinejad has staked his domestic reputation on a position that
has been to heighten tensions between Iran and the West. This
current phase is very difficult to have any sort of cold analysis
of the facts, because that is exactly what Ahmadinejad doesn't
want. As with so many of these launches, the reality on the ground
is so much less sensational than Ahmadinejad likes to whip up in
these cases."
U.S. government officials are confirming that Iran launched a
missile yesterday. One official said it appeared the test was a
success - that is, that Tehran succeeded in launching a
medium-range missile.
The announcement comes less than a month before Iran's presidential
election and just two days after President Barack Obama declared a
readiness to seek deeper international sanctions against Tehran if
it did not respond positively to U.S. attempts to open negotiations
on its nuclear program.
Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman would not confirm the launch but
said the U.S. is aware of Iran's pursuit of ballistic
missiles.
"Our concerns are obviously based on nuclear ambitions and the
implications that long- and medium-range missiles have with respect
to that," Whitman told reporters at the Pentagon yesterday. "Iran
is at a bit of a crossroads. They have a choice to make. They can
either continue on this path of continued destabilization in the
region or they can decide that they want to pursue relationships
with the countries in the region and the United States that are
more normalized."
U.S. officials say they are still trying to determine the missile's
range, trajectory and other details.
Secretary of Defense Robert Gates confirmed that Iran conducted a
successful ballistic missile test.
He said that the successful test involved a missile with a range of
approximately 2,000 to 2,500 kilometers. He said that because of
chronic engine problems, the range is probably on the lower end of
that scale.
Gates said he could not say whether the test missile hit its
intended target.
Hours after the test, numerous U.S. defense and intelligence
officials declined to even acknowledge the Iranian launch had
occurred. Some referred calls to the White House and State
Department, a sign of how politically sensitive the development is
to the Obama administration and its continuing efforts to deal with
Iran's reported efforts to build nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, a joint U.S.-Russian report by the EastWest Institute
said yesterday that Iran may be one to three years away from
developing a nuclear weapon, and commented on Tehran's significant
advance in ballistic missile technology. The report said Iran is
six to eight years away from developing a ballistic missile capable
of carrying a 900 kilogram nuclear warhead.