F-35 production schedule thus far

slim10 SG

Tot I do a review of the F-35 current schedule for production JSF variants. LLF = Long lead funding, delivery (del) expected 3 years after LLF.

Lot 1 (2): 2 -A (USAF) (LLF: FY06/07, del ~FY 09/10).
Lot 2 (12): 6 -A (USAF), 6 -B (USMC) (LLF: FY07/08, del ~FY 10/11).
Lot 3 (23): 12 -A (10 USAF, 2 Dutch), 11 -B (8 USMC, 3 UK) (LLF: FY08/09, del ~FY 11/12).

Lot 4 (28): 13 -A (12 USAF, 1 Dutch), 14 -B (USMC), 1 -C (USN) (LLF: FY09/10, del ~FY 12/13).

Lot 1/2 likely used for operational testing.

Numbers: UK (138), Italy (74 -A, 57 -B), USAF (1763), USMC/USN (680). <- US to acquire 513 F-35s over next 5 years (2007 schedule showed 461 so 52 accelerated buys expected.)

Australian (75-100) participation expected lot 5.
Italian (74 -A, 57 -B), Turkish (100-116) and likely Israel (25 -A + 50 A/B?) participation expected lot 6.
Canada (65) Danish (48) and Norway (48) participation exp lot 8.
Singapore participation expected lot 8. Delivery ~2016 @ 8-12 a year.

Production peak expected 2016 (2X per month, 2XX per year). In comparison F-16 peak was 1987 (299 yr and 30 max month).

Other interested countries:

Greece, Korea, Finland, Belgium, Spain.
Other potentials: Japan, India, Taiwan.

2004 flight int'l article:
"JSF team members pointed out...the F-35B especially well-suited to the RSAF requirements."
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2004/02/25/179859/usaf-embraces-stovls-capabilities.html

Atobe SG

It will be unlikely for Singaporeans to see the F35 in our home skies by 2016, as these planes maybe left behind in the USA for the use of pilots and ground crew to be trained with the USAF.

From past practices, the earliest that these planes will return to Singapore will be at least two to three years after the delivery.

These F35s will provide the RSAF with a huge technological leap over the air forces within the ASEAN region.

Despite the superficial country-to-country goodwill in the ASEAN spirit, it may well create insecurity, envy and competitive rivalry to be Number ONE - if not to be left too far behind.

slim10 SG

Unlike F-15s, training can be closer to home if Australia goes ahead with the creation of a JSF pilot school.

http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2005/03/22/195561/australia-sets-sights-on-creating-jsf-pilot-school.html

http://www.tsjonline.com/story.php?F=2725832

Ferry range (-A) is ~1900km without ext tanks. Redeployment will probably need just 1-2 refuel stop (Broome, Australia to SG ~ 3000 km). With 4x 600 gal tanks, might not need aerial refuel.

Training will take ~2-3 years in Eglin, FL first but commence 12 months before delivery so may not need 2-3 years before seeing them in SG.

Sepecat SG

By 2016 most of RSAF's F5s will probably have already been retired. We probably need more F16s to replace at least part of the F5 fleet.

slim10 SG

Considering how long ST managed to keep A-4s in service, won't be surprising if the F-5s could soldier on pass 2016. No major airframe life extension seems to be required and ST has capability in structural repairs and modifications.

F-5s were acquired between 1979 to 1989 (manufactured between 77-86) so 30 year lifespan will be reached 2009 to 2019. As the primary interceptor duties are probably assumed by F-16s and soon F-15s, the F-5s tempo of use can be reduced to relieve airframe stress.

The avionics upgrade were meant to extend the useful life for 10-15 years (IOC was 1999) so its timed relatively well with the F-35 introduction.

If there is a capability gap, more F-15s rather than F-16s will be acquired. The 24xF-15SGs has capabilities several times of A-4s and F-5s (1xF-15 sqn has the capability of 3xF-5 sqn). 3x more bomb loads/hardpoints + BVR/AESA & more missiles carried means that the RSAF already has much more capability than before.

Alternatively, RSAF could pay more to get early production (LRIP) F-35s if they really needed it.

Sepecat SG

If no airframe life extension for F5s is carried out till 2016 time frame , you will definitely need one for F5 to soldier on for another say 10 years beyond 2016. A4s are carrier based aircraft & their structures are all beefed up compared to land based aircraft - so its not surprising for them to soldier on for so long without airframe extensions in a land based environment.

F15SGs are upgraded multirole aircraft derived originally from F15Es. Clearly they are extremely capable aircraft. But, for the main role of an air defence fighter like what RSAFs F5s are tasked for , F16s will be more appropriate as replacements. The US Air National Guard uses mainly F16s for which they are ideally suited. Then there is the issue of cost. F16s are cheaper to procure & operate. One does not need a two seat heavy long range F15SG optimized for strike roles to take on an air defence role even though its possible - however it makes no sense.