We've come closer to midnight before, and while the possibility
of a new world war is never far away, this isn't one of those times
when you would start imagining of a situation. I believe the
appropriate term for it is 'damn random'.
True enough, Russia does have a greviance with its de
facto predecessor's territories having been chopped up and
thrown free, while it had to sit and watch them leave. They also
had to endure several secessionist attempts - in their opinion, at
least - successfully put them to shame, with the western bloc
expressing support for all these breakaways. So far Russia has been
testing the limits of the threats from the western world, who so
far come nowhere close to resorting to military action. However, it
seems that Russia's only interest for the near future is to simply
keep its borders where the Federation believes it should belong.
There is no thirst for great conquest, and Russia shows itself to
be more of a 'fixing' mood. Its economy may be growing, but it's
far from being robust enough to survive anything more than minor
theatres of war without falling apart. In a time of rising energy
prices, it is more than obvious that it has more to gain from
sitting put and maximising its profits from exploiting this turn of
fortunes and newfound market power. Its future military power will
stand to benefit from extra spending on research and upgrades while
America's slows down from having to deal with the Middle East and
their economic crisis.
America is no state to get involved into any more military
activities. It currently has its hands full with Afghanistan and
Iraq, and the political sentiment at home is overwhelming against
any future military action. Furthermore, with the two presidential
candidates focusing on a progressive foreign policy, it is unlikely
to take that step in the future. Its economy is furthermore in
shambles and in no state to endure another major conflict. With
rising prices, rising unemployment, massive slowdowns, and a series
of stock market crashes thus far, the government is currently too
busy trying to stabilise the economy and restore it to a steady,
healthy state. If anything, I believe the defense budget is likely
to be cut in favour of spending elsewhere. The current suffrages
demand it, and in the case of a demoncracy, it is only a matter of
time before the government gives in to their interests of dealing
with the situation at home before going abroad.
Europe is far too divided to act decisively as a single bloc, so
we should not expect unified action. However, EU, or even NATO for
that matter, do seem to agree on not intervening on the situation
thus far, and have been actively looking for diplomatic solutions
without any sabre-rattling. It has been clear so far that while
Europe does heavily worry about Russia's rise to power, they know
their sovereignty is not what is at stake as yet. What they do
fear, however, is the amount of influence Russia will be able to
wield as it gains in stature and presence. It may be able to
greatly hinder their own political and economic strength, but not
so to the point of destruction.
China? Even more unlikely. It has come out from the 2008
Olympics with a new, clean image that it has no interest in
tarnishing. It furthermore has stable political relations all
round, even with both Koreas and Japan, and it is poised to further
its economic reach rather than engage in any military conflict.
Granted, of course, it is perfectly capable of doing so, but why
choose expand, when there is so much of your own resources you have
yet to exploit?
Indeed my sentiments exactly, Ariedartin.
Nonetheless however, the West ought to be wary for not forcing
Russia's hand too much in this issue. Diplomacy would always be the
better part of valor in this growing tension and hopefully the
spark can be defused without it setting off a domino chain of
unstoppable events.
