Quite right. And you know, the Japanese aren't dumb and it would
have dawned upon their IJN planners long before the campaign that
they luck the necessary naval force to defend their conquests from
an allied counter-offensive.
The Japanese preferrence for a decisive battle doesn't stem from
blind and inflexible belief in the Mahan doctrine but rather
recognization of their own weakness. They could in the early stages
of the war stand a chance of knocking out the allied forces at sea
that fight a protracted war of attrition whereby her paltry
merchant shipping would be dwarfed by the US' resources.
So it was either at best a 50-50 chance of winning or a 100%
guarantee of lost. Either way prospects didn't look so good.
