New 094 SSBN photos as well as Google Earth images are
confirming at least two 094 SSBN entering service.
From FAS.org update again:
Two More Chinese SSBNs Spotted
By Hans M. Kristensen (BLOG UPDATED OCTOBER 10, 2007)
http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/10/two_more_chinese_ssbns_spotted.php
China appears to have launched two more ballistic missiles
submarines from the Bohai shipyard at Huludao approximately 400 km
east of Beijing. This could bring to three the number of Jin-class
(Type 094) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs)
launched by China in the past three to four years.
The two submarines were discovered during analysis of newly
published commercial satellite images on Google Earth. This is the
second time in three months that FAS has discovered new Chinese
ballistic missile submarines on commercial satellite images. The
first time was in July 2007, when the first Jin-class was disclosed
on the FAS Strategic Security Blog.
The submarines on the new image have the same dimensions as the
previous submarine.
So How Many Do They Have?
Whether China has now launched two or three Jin-class SSBNs is
still unclear. The image of the first SSBN discovered at
Xiaopingdao in July 2007 was taken on October 17, 2006. The new
image of the two SSBNs at Huludao was taken six and a half months
later on May 3, 2007. One possibility is that the Xiaopingdao SSBN
returned to Huludao for repair or further adjustment and was
captured on the 2007 photo together with the second SSBN. Another
possibility is that the two Huludao SSBNs are indeed the second and
third boats of the new Jin-class SSBN.
The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimated in December 2006
that "a fleet of probably five TYPE 094 SSBNs will be built in
order to provide more redundancy and capacity for a near-continuous
at-sea SSBN presence." China has not stated how many SSBNs it plans
to build and there is no authoritative information available in the
public that confirms that China plans to build five SSBNs. It
might, but it might also build less if it decides that three or
four are sufficient.
Some Implications
The new Jin-class SSBNs add to the single and unsuccessful
Xia-class (Type 092) that China launched in 1982. The Xia has never
conducted a deterrent patrol and its operational status is in
doubt. The rapid launch of two or three Jin-class SSBNs indicate
that the Chinese navy feels confident it has overcome at least some
of the technical problems that curtailed the Xia.
Each Jin-class appears to have 12 launch tubes for the new Julang-2
sea-launched ballistic missiles that are currently under
development. If Julang-2 and three Jin-class SSBNs become fully
operational, it would enable China to deploy up to 24 ballistic
missiles at sea, assuming one boat would be in overhaul at any
given time (and the Xia is still not operational). The range of the
Julang-2 is estimated by the US intelligence community at more than
8,000 km (4,970+ miles), which brings Hawaii and Alaska (but not
the continental United States) within reach from Chinese
territorial waters.
Despite many rumors on the Internet about multiple warheads on
Julang-2, the long-held assessment by the US intelligence community
is that the Julang-2 will be a single-warhead missile.
Whether China plans to deploy a continuous sea-based deterrent is
unknown. It appears doubtful because it would break with the
Chinese practice of not deploying fully operational nuclear
missiles. Nuclear warheads for China's land-based missiles are
believed to be stored separate from the missiles, although this has
never actually been verified for the entire force. If the
submarines deployed into the Pacific (like U.S. and to a smaller
extent Russian SSBNs) it would also break with Chinese policy of
not deploying nuclear weapons outside Chinese territory. An
alternative would be to operate the SSBNs as a surge capability,
intended to deploy in a crisis.
