Singapore plans multiple rocket launcher, IFV acquisitions

last SG · 2007-08-10T09:20:51+00:00

I think they’ll be going for a wheeled one…

gary1910 SG

All these silly Malaysian theories in how to counter the mighty SAF!!!! Laughing

One such theory was that Astros II as some kind of WMD that could practically plummet SG into submission by a few salvo with that LR but inaccurate, with their widely spread small bomblets!!!

Secondly was the infamous sampan theory, thousands of sampan with infantry trying to sneak into SG as a form of surprise amphibious attack!!! Laughing

And the last I heard was naval blockade against SG so that we will run out of supplies thus capitulate!!!

Do they realise that a naval blockade against SG is effectively blockading the Straits of Malacca, an impt lifeline for the nations of East Asia, within weeks , the navies of PRC, Japan S Korea etc will sink all RMN ships in that blockade , without us lifting a finger!!!! Laughing

Anyway, those fool's theories have been entertaining!!!

ProudlySingaporean SG

but we cannot discount the possibility that they may be able to tweak the Astro rockets so that it can carry biological or chemical agents which will be disastrous if landed in our small but populated country even though they may be inaccurate…moreover they have some sort of a nuclear research facility right?

fvwerra SG

Heh... if the MAF are in the tweaking business, they should have tweak their
Migs to have low MTBF first! MAF culture is to buy and let some dubious company to maintain thus negating the systems effectiveness.

Arthas79 SG

but we cannot discount the possibility that they may be able to tweak the Astro rockets so that it can carry biological or chemical agents which will be disastrous if landed in our small but populated country even though they may be inaccurate...moreover they have some sort of a nuclear research facility right?

And risk the rockets falling on Malaysia as well? Very doubtful. Furthermore, the contagion would spread into Malaysia from Singapore; like a nuclear attack. We are too close. Vice versa.

Also, how are they going to account for dead foriegn nationals and soldiers on Singapore soil and thier own as well?

The nuclear research facility is a small one. Not exactly a nuclear plant or weapons making plant. I would not be surprised if we have one managed by DSTA and DSTO too; since we are ahead in research in many areas.

Anyway, such weapons are categorized as weapons of mass destruction. Research and development take a long time and are extremely hard to hide. And not unless you are a gobal power which can act with impunity, the world community would bear down on you with crippling sanctions for being a rogue state. So, decades of growth go down the drain and you would become impoverised and isolated.

ProudlySingaporean SG

well...are the astros that inaccurate?singapore may be small but she's still 690+ km2 big leh...who knows...they may have prepared adequate doses of the vaccine or antidote for whatever agents they may be prepared to use...i mean if u were to do something like that u will of course have a backup plan to prevent yourself from possibly shooting yourself in the foot right? maybe stockpiles of such vaccines or antidote just enough for her armed forces and key personnel and leaders are already kept somewhere and ready to be distributed?

hmmm regarding foreign nationals...that's a good deterrent but then again... we shouldn't be too reliant on that partly cos when shit hits the fan and they have nothing more to lose.....then this may not be of much consequence too i think

hopefully our guys are monitoring activities inside their nuclear research facilities to see if there's anything up their sleeves when they toy with nuclear energy....however i seriously doubt there's a similar one locally...how to contain any meltdown in singapore sia....most prob there's a dsta lab overseas or dsta personnels trained in such research in overseas lab...maybe at mexico! Razz

anyway all these are just my wild concerns cos even though the chances of them materialising are low but look at countries around us..all looking towards nuclear energy liao and somemore the emphasis on CBRE not too long ago may not be just simply to serve as deterrent to terrorists only IMHO.

Arthas79 SG

They are unguided so they are not accurate. And they get more inaccurate the further they are from thier target. Look for Gary`s post. He has done quite a bit of reading about it.

You are right.lol. Your scenarios are rather far-fetched. More like a doomsday one for both sides. Lol. But seriously, I do not think there is a risk of a meltdown ala a nuclear plant melt-down in the laboratory they have up north because the tests are simply not of that nature. Think of a school lab where they make rudimentary research to know more about nuclear science. There was a post about it recently by Lion-noisy. Hence, it is likely that Singapore would have it as well. Or collaborate with the Mexicans as you say.

I agree that training Singaporeans to protect ourselves against such attacks would be useful. But the government has not done so in a large scale and that is probably due to the absence of such threats in the context you have described. I agree that they are more for terrorism currently.

ASEAN is a nuclear weapon free zone as all participating nations have agreed to implement Zopfan(Zone of Peace, Freedom, and Neutrality) and SEANWFZ(Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone ); in principle or otherwise. But of course, it does not mean that fickle governments might not change thier minds to thier own disrepute and well-being. Just goes to show how ineffective ASEAN is. lol. Just look at who are the ones making noises now and see if they are the same proponents of the latter two agreements not too long ago. We should never trust thier word.

Conceivably, the world would not tolerate another nuclear power(nuclear weapons) or simply one which possesses weapons of mass destruction. And none of these countries possess the capability to develop nuclear plants currently or in the future in spite of suggestions by politicians who know next to nothing about this technology. It takes a lot of time.

tankfanatic SG

hi all probably the last post for this month because im cranking my jeep xj and going offroad and fishing in the serene jungle of pahang......

anyway gary i will read the link you give ...it is cool. So gary when you calculate the CEP did you take the mass and weight of the rocket too? You see a 127mm rocket and 300mm rocket act differently....

a small rocket like the ss30 (if the calculation are right) would limit its effective range to 30-40 km max. But a 300mm rocket the ss80 which have bigger mass nad weight will have a farther effective range..in this case its max efective range is 90 km (max).

so the argument on the accuracy of the unguided rocket have been solved by the designer ..otherwise astros 2 is a useless weapon.

any way see ya...

gary1910 SG

I did not calculate the CEP of the Astros II, but it is well known fact that unguided rocket technology is at best 1% of range, for example the best unguided rocket system of the Russian origin was the Uragan of the 70s has a CEP of 1%.

So it does not matter whether it is 127mm rocket or 300mm rocket , the technology remain the same!!!

Let me quote what I have posted elsewhere:

Tube gun like 155mm howitzer has a CEP abt 0.2~0.3% of range.

Older technology unguided rocket like the Uragan,Astro etc have a CEP of at least 1% of range.

The newer technoloy using what they called controlled or trajectory correction rocket able improve the CEP to abt 0.4~0.5%, eg. the Smerch, LAR-160.

Therefore, you see unguided rocket produced by US and Russia in the 60~70s are of range below 40km becos any higher range is tactically useless becos of inaccuracy of an unguided rocket.

With introduction of trajectory correction technology in the ealiar 80s by the Russian where you see rocket range go up 80~90km.

And US introduced the GPS guided ATACMs has range go beyond that becos of CEP are within metres.

The world first trajectory correction rocket system was the Smerch which was developed after Astros II's SS-30 to SS-60, so they all unguided rockets, SS-80 were developed later by using a new improved rocket motor to extend the range of SS-60, which is the SS-80.

So SS-80 is also unguided rocket, which means from SS-30 to SS-80 are all unguided rocket, which also means all have poor CEP of at least 1% of range!!!

Proofs for all the above could be found in the link I have provided.

So do you understand all the above?

Shotgun SG

So u're saying 1% of range, at 80km, the CEP would be 800meters!

But whats the munitions saturation like? How effective will the munitions saturation be even if the rocket CEP are at 800meters?

If Changi Airport was targeted, using the AstrosII's airfield denial configuration, how much of Changi's 4km runway would be affected by the 800 meter CEP, taking account into runway denial submunition dispersal patterns?

Consider an attack based on more than 1 battery of Astros II aligned to have its rockets projected impact points cut diagonally unto the runway?

SAF's fighting edge has much to do with its air superiority. In terms of asymmetric warfare, their Astros II, if employed effectively, can disrupt our air operations significantly.

LazerLordz SG

Which lends greater credence to rumours that we may be the ones funding the reactivation of Israel's Skyguard Mobile THEL(High Energy Laser) system....

gary1910 SG

1) If it is based on CEP of 1% of range and at range of 80km.
50% of the rds will be within an area of = pie x sq of 800m, the another 50% of the rds will be outside of that area.

2) Secondly, we really do not know what is the actual CEP of Astros, it may even be 2~3%, perhaps even more.( Iranian rocket I heard was abt 5%!!!!)

Let's me explain, Russian Uragan sysyem proudly announced their CEP is 1%, Likewise China WS-1B also proudly announced their CEP is 1~1.5%.

Why?
Becos at 1%, it is the best for unguided rocket technology, so there is no shame in reveal it, in fact it is a selling point for unguided rocket system.

Whereas Avibras, the manufacturer of Astros II has kept the CEP secret, so I am not surprise that it is much higher, 2~3% will be my bet.

2) SS-60/80 DPICM rocket has only 65 bomblets each, the anti-runway rocket has much more TNT thus much lesser bomblets, IIRC I think abt 20 bomblets per rocket, not sure though so correct me if I am wrong, but certainly lesser than 65 bomblets .

Each anti-runway bomblet is able to penetrate abt 50cm of concrete and radius abt 55~86cm, so it is not a very large crater, so I believe it could be quickly repaired.

No detail abt the spread of the bomblets though.

4) I dun think that all the runways in the CIA are facing north-south direction, therefore it might not even the hit 4km runway.

I have no idea how many runways SG has but there are a lot them, afterall we have 4 fixed-wing airbases with unknown number of runways, 2 airports and a large number of emergency runways, all together at least 10+ perhaps even more.

So even if MAF have 36 launchers( currently only 18 and some are actually based in East Malaysia), with the fact of poor CEP and small amount of bomblets each, I highly doubt the salvo of 4 rocket each will be able to disable all our runways.

5) Firing unguided rocket into SG especially at LR, will cause a lot of collateral damage, locals and foreigners alike and will likely cause a very big int'l political backlash, plus the fact there are many foreign military a/c and naval ships around in SG. It will be stupid if they try!!!! Laughing

I think it is smart of SG that CNB plus 2 airbases were build near one the busiest airport in asia, it will make them think twice hitting them with their inaccurate rocket!!!! Twisted Evil

Anyway, I believe SG should get STOVL F-35B in the future that may migitate the problem by having the ability to takeoff from many places in SG.

And I also hope that we will be getting an anti-artillery system like Skyguard and Iron Dome in the future that will at least reduce the effect of an arty barrage against SG.

Shotgun SG

I see, thanks for the info.

So it seems that we may be looking at a 2-3% CEP rather than a 1%. No, last i checked, Changi isn't a north south. Its runway heading is 020 / 200. Because its slightly towards the diagonal, chances of all the munitions missing totally are slim. But, chances of them getting lucky and messing up the entire runway is slim as well though.

IIRC as well, each launcher can only hold up to 2 or 4 of the SS-80s due to its size as well. Which limits the saturation effect achievable per salvo.

gary1910 SG

I started looking around at what kind of rocket MY actually bought, with limited success but I did find some interesting stuff:

1) From UN transfer register which is voluntary register has :

Brazil export in 2002:
III. Large calibre artillery systems Malaysia 12 Multi Rocket Launcher Astros

Malaysia import in 2005:
VII. Missiles
and missile launchers Brazil 1,296 units Astros SS-30HE Rockets

http://disarmament2.un.org/UN_REGISTER.nsf/Overall%20participation?OpenView&Start=30&Count=30&Expand=93&BaseTarget=Frame3#93

2) From SIPRI, only got these:
Brazil
R: Malaysia (10) AV-VBL APC (2000) 2002 (10)
18 ASTROS-2 MRL 2001 2002 (18 ) Deal worth $197 m
(3) ASTROS AV-UCF Fire control radar 2001 2002 (3)

http://armstrade.sipri.org/

3) From Military Balance 2007

MRL 18 ASTROS II (equipped with 127mm SS-30)

http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content?content=10.1080/04597220601181097

Please post if anyone has more info on the above.

So we do know that when Astros II first arrived in MY, they did test fired the SS-80, cordoned off part of South China Sea for that! Laughing

So it is possible that there are small qty of various rockets were bought for evaluation but eventually after evaluation of the various rockets of the high CEP Astros II, MAF decided that the most useful rocket should be SS-30, therefore bought a large qty of it later?

Remember the quote that I have posted abt unguided system of 1% CEP will be ineffective above 40km.

That is why US MLRS only standard unguided M26 rocket at max range of 32km, Russian unguided Uragan rocket is only 35km!!!

So it is very possible that MAF's Astro II will be using mainly SS-30, which is smart as it will be more useful as a saturation arty at those range in the battlefield, rather than the SS60/80 becos of the poor CEP.

( But it will be smarter if they go for more tube 155mm arty instead perhaps with DPICM rds , becos it will be at much lower cost and much better accuracy than the Astros!!! Laughing )

Some info abt the SS-30, it is unitary HE rocket, there is no ICM version of it.

Calibre 127mm
Weight 68kg
Length 3.9m
Range 9~30km
Number of tube per launcher 32

Arthas79 SG

Realistically, I doubt we would even allow the Astross to take pot-shots at us. Even if the Malaysians suddenly become insane and decide to take on the US and other powers by destroying thier men and equipment at our bases. And incur the wrath of an entire planet by inevitably killing civilian targets as well. Our planes and missiles would be surging to get at them and other key targets first. We would not allow them to get the first shot; or do our best to prevent that from happening. I would put a `bull`s eye' on them wherever they go; satellite imagery, ground intelligence, etc.

They do understand that once they open fire on our forces, their positions would become very visible and they would expect a huge counter barrage from all manner of armed platforms within seconds.

Arthas79 SG

This is not WW2. Now, I am no expert on this mattter but I know that aircraft runaways can be repaired extremely fast in this age. We are not talking days, weeks and months. They can be repaired as fast as 30 mins or less. Obviously, we have that capability since air-craft runaways are being repaired on a daily basis at commercial air-ports all around the world using rapid repair kits; polymers, fast drying concrete, etc. Spalls on runaways can happen anytime due to a variety of factors. And you cannot obviously close runaways anytime you want.

It would be unthinkable on the part of the RSAF to not adapt these tools for thier own needs Wink Add that to our protective sheild consisting of early warning, target acquisition and annihiliation, air-defence systems, new runaways converted from our own roads and the Astross own relative inaccuracy and you have got yourselves a strong shield.

But, honestly, the odds of them using the rockets on our bases in Singapore is slim to none. The reasons have already been elaborated up there. But that does not dispense the need for us to prepare well for such an eventuality. And we are doing just about that. Smile

Arthas79 SG

I have read some material on runaway repairs from books previously. I did a quick search on the net and found some sites which would be interesting to read;

http://www.elastomer.com/polymer/bulletins/gatewayairport/gatewayairport.html

http://www.elastomer.com/polymer/specdata/es-1945kwikseal35.html

Edit: fixed the links Very Happy

Shotgun SG

Fortunately for us, the M'sian didn't acquire the SS-80 rockets to take pot shots at us with. As for their saturation attacks with SS-30s, well at its best a strategic deterrence against us. Sort of like saying, "attack us, and we'll raze all ur ERP gantries in the CBD."

Rather than selecting military targets such as runways, or bases for saturation attacks, a strategic target like our CBD would prove to be more of a deterrence when we start counting the costs.

Of course, placing their precious Astros within 30km of Singapore is a big risk (both politically, and tactically) during peace time, and almost impossible in time war.

Most likely, they will be used to impede any mechanized push up the North South Highway.

Arthas79 SG

I think the case is clear that the the Astross`s ability to inflict serious harm on our strategic assets like aircraft runaways, key military installations, etc is more fiction than realistic.

Given the lack of good military assets(excluding the Sukhois), the Malaysians have little else to be proud about.

It would be unthinkable under the conventions of war to target a civilian area. Not only would it unwittingly enrage and boost the morale of a citizen army but attacking a vital node in a chain of global financial centres would condemn that country to instant global infamy. The country which does this would lose all the support she wants when she goes to the UN for a ceasefire. Nor any credible support during the war from any country.

We could do the same in retaliation too. Target their own cbds. Given the disparity in our ability to hit harder, they would lose more.

However, they know they that they have to go the UN to seek a compromise to force us out of the peninsula at the end of the day. It is most likely the same for us too; in order to end the conflict. Both sides would want the moral high ground of sorts.

Most likely, they will be used to impede any mechanized push up the North South Highway.

Yeah. Could not agree more with you. It brings us back to the point that the Astross would be used as a normal artillery weapon to hamper SAF`s push into Malaysia.

Shotgun SG

It would be unthinkable under the conventions of war to target a civilian area. Not only would it unwittingly enrage and boost the morale of a citizen army but attacking a vital node in a chain of global financial centres would condemn that country to instant global infamy. The country which does this would lose all the support she wants when she goes to the UN for a ceasefire. Nor any credible support during the war from any country.

That is one possible way of how a MLRS counter-strike into CBD may be looked upon.

However, the scenario I suggested was that Singapore makes the first strike, and the MAF retaliates by wrecking havoc in our CBD with their MLRS.

With much of our citizens well educated, they'd instantly recognize that it is indeed a staggering price to pay. If the MLRS strike was timed way after midnight, where civilian population would be minimal in the CBD areas, the citizens may start considering the cost to the war in the first place.

Whether, the war may have been a "Pre-emptive" strike, or an effort to secure our water supply (which we are moving away from), the people might consider the SAF efforts to have brought upon us a disaster rather than become angered at the MAF.

It is part and parcel of war to be able to threaten strategic objectives and if necessary demonstrate the intent and capability to capture or damage it. Such strategic objectives could be industrial centers, or financial centers. (Side note: I do not consider densely populated civilian housing to be strategic objectives. )

While they have too few of such MRLS to level the CBD (perhaps we'd lose a few storeys off a few buildings), it does send the message across that they are capable of threatening it, and would "encourage" to weigh our "costs" before we dare make any military ventures into M'sia.

An honest question, besides their Astross 2, are we concerned/worried about the MAF capability as a whole, or any of their other systems? I'm not even concerned about their Flanker/Adder capability. Its gonna cost them more money to maintain than to fly.

OTOH, a saturated rocket attack on the CBD does bring the "Risks" of war a lil closer to home.

Orcishwarrior SG

Just pray hard that Skyguard Laser System will be online @ the end of the decade Very Happy mount a few on the roof top and we are "impregnable" once again lol. @ the start of the war you might probably see some JDAM bombs away their harden Concrete bunk or probably JSOW flying across.

Few rocket arent gonna cripple singapore remember singapore economic is largely manage by TEMASK and who owns temask? Very Happy
The transportation arent gonna cease , the port is not gonna stop functioning, the airport will most probably be still open to commercial airliner and things will be in its "norm". Besides till then our foreign reserve could be some 10 digits lol

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