With the recent upgrades in its Air Force and up coming Navy.
China will be more powerful than US.
They will be building their own aircraft carrier soon. So Dun play
play...
From global security:
At present China has very little in the way of credible
power-projection capabilities, though China can already project
military forces superior to those that South-east Asian countries
could deploy to the South China Sea. The PLA Navy has studied the
acquisition of an aircraft carrier since the mid-1980s, and there
are persistant reports that China has plans to launch a 40,000 ton
class aircraft carrier by 2010, though these reports remain
unsubstantiated and appear to based on woefully inadequate analysis
and information.
While the navy has lobbied for a carrier for many years, their
proposals have been overruled by the Central Military Commission.
This decision may have been motivated by a desire not to be seen to
be adding a major new capability to China's maritime forces, with
consequent adverse regional reaction. From a purely military
perspective, a Chinese aircraft carrier would be expensive to
operate, and carrier would be vulnerable to attack by aircraft,
fast surface vessels and submarines. An aircraft carrier could
enhance China's ability to lay claim to the islands and coral
atolls of the South China Sea, an area potentially rich in oil and
other resources. And an aircraft carrier would make a potent
political and diplomatic statement, potentially creating a major
change in the strategic balance in East Asia. In 1992, the Chinese
authorities reportedly authorized a program for studying the
development of an aircraft carrier. Chinese leaders at various
levels have done extensive feasibility studies on this project
since then. In 1993, senior leaders of the Chinese Navy announced
that China would start developing an aircraft carrier. In January
1993, Chinese political leaders decided to step up their carrier
program and allocated several billion dollars for the project. At
that time, China had planned to finish the first aircraft carrier
by 2000, but the plan was delayed repeatedly due to lack of carrier
technology. Eventually it was decided to advance the carrier
program in two stages.
Phase 1 - Study Foreign Technology
During the first stage, China has bought several scrapped carriers
from overseas in order to study the parts.
In 1985 China purchased the 17,000-ton former Royal Australian Navy
aircraft carrier, HMAS Melbourne as scrap, and she was finally
broken up in Dalian, China. According to some reports stated that
as late as 1994 the ship was still in existence at Guangzhou,
China, being studied by Chinese naval architects. The hulk had been
stripped of all useful equipment prior to sale, but Australian Navy
sources reportedly said that the Chinese were particularly
interested in the ship's steam catapult - even requesting the
operating manuals. It is said that a navy unit has built a
simulated flying deck at its airport in northern China. The design
of the Melbourne was taken for reference. Reportedly, the airborne
troops of the navy have used the deck to carry out numerous flying
tests. The improved deck adopted the optical landing system
designed and developed by China.
In 1992 China was reported to have opened discussions with Ukraine
to purchase of the Varyag, a 67,500-ton Kiev-class attack aircraft
carrier about two-thirds complete and docked at the Black Sea
shipyard of Nikolayev. In mid-1992 China's Science Academy sent 15
naval specialists to Ukraine for two months to conduct a
feasibility study on the matter. After hearing their report, the
Central Military Commission decided to go ahead with the plan and
buy a carrier, aircraft and electronic equipment by 1994. These
negotiations were ultimately fruitless, after Japan and the United
States put pressure on Ukraine to pull out of the deal. In 1993
China began negotiations with Russia for the purchase of two
40,000-ton carriers, though again with no results.
In 1995 a Spanish firm, Empresa Nacional Bazan, is reported to have
offered to build China two conventional takeoff-and-landing (CTOL)
vessel, with the first to be delivered within five years and the
second roughly three years later. While China is reported to have
expressed an interest, a deal was not reached.
In late 1995, France is reported to have offerred the Clemenceau
for free, provided that China bought radar and communications
systems from French companies. Nothing came of the offer.
In 1998 the Minsk was purchased from a South Korean shipbreaking
company by the Minsk Aircraft Carrier Industry Company, a Chinese
firm. The South Korean firm stripped the vessel of its armaments,
engines, and communications suite and required that the vessel
would not be used for military purposes. The Chinese company had
the ship towed to Guangdong Province, where it planned to convert
the ship into a floating museum. In September 2000 the ship was
moved to Shenzhen to become part of a theme park called Minsk
World.
In early 1998 a Macau-based company, Chin Lot Tourist and Amusement
Agency bought the Varyag for $20 million dollars, with the
announced intent of turning it into a floating amusement park and
gambling casino in Macau. The contract with Ukraine stipulated that
the buyer can't use the carrier for military purposes, and that any
equipment that could be used to build other warships were removed
from the craft. In 1999 a respected Hong Kong periodical reported
that British and French companies had made Beijing an offer to
equip the Varyag with many of the systems needed to make it
operational.
In March 2002, following a significant delay by Turkish authorities
who denied the carrier passage through the Bosporus Strait, the
Varyag arrived in Dalian.
Chong Lot is a subsidary a Hong Kong firm called Chinluck
(Holding). Chong Lot was also connected to another Hong Kong
company, Goldspot Investments Ltd. All three firms had connections
with former People's Liberation Army officials. Directors of
Chinluck were reported to have ties to the Chinese Navy, though
Chinluck denied any People's Liberation Army involvement in the
sale of the Varyag. Three of the five directors of Chinluck
Holding, the parent company of Chong Lot, are Chinese nationals
from Shandong, which happens to be the home of the Chinese navy's
North sea fleet. Chinluck (Holding) Co. Ltd. does not have any
public presence, and Chong Lot carried a non-existent address in
Macau.
In 2003 Sky Cruise International Company Limited sought the winding
up of Chinluck (Holdings) Company Limited. The petition was filed
on August 16, 2003, and was heard before the High Court of Hong
Kong on November 12, 2003 at 9:30 in the morning. Sky Cruise holds
its registered office at 13th Floor, Bel Trade Commercial Building,
1-3 Burrows Street, Wanchai, Hong Kong.
On 04 April 2003 Zhong Nan Group (Hong Kong) Investments Ltd filed
suit against Chinluck (Holdings) Co Ltd to recover
USD1,928,200.
But the the Chinluck Group remained active. On 10 March 2005
Xinhuanet quoted Cheng Zhen Shu, who is chairman of the Chinluck
Group Limited in Hong Kong, as saying "The adoption of the
anti-secession law and mighty military strengthen will deter
'Taiwan independence' elements from pursuingillegal
activities."
The carrier is surrounded with heavy security in Dalian, which bars
civilian access; police flank the shipyard entrance. This fueled
speculation that the Varyag is being used by the Chinese military.
It is not evident that China could actually turn Varyag into an
active military warship, since he is badly deteriorated. Presently
70 percent complete, Varyag displaces about 33,600 tons [versus the
67,000-ton design displacement]. Varyag no longer has the nuclear
reactors that were installed by the Ukrainian state-run Generating
Systems of Crimea. Electronics were either never fitted or removed
before he was sold.
In May 2000 the Tianma Shipbreaking Company in Tianjin purchased
the Kiev from Russia. While the initial contract required that the
ship be scrapped, the contract was renogatiated so that the Kiev
would become a tourist attraction at the Beiyang Recreation
Harbor.
Phase 2 - New Construction
China appears to have chosen to build a Chinese aircraft carrier,
rather than purchasing one off-the-shelf. Although Chinas
long-term goal is to acquire one or more aircraft carriers and it
has an active program to develop a design, it remains unclear
whether Beijing has reached a firm decision on the kind of carrier
it will have, given budget constraints and naval funding
priorities.
The PLA Navy will need to overcome several large obstacles before
it can field an operational aircraft carrier and associated
supporting ships. First, the PLA Navy does not have any
carrier-capable aircraft. Second, although substantially improved
in these areas, it still needs more and better antisubmarine and
antiaircraft capabilities to protect a carrier and its supporting
vessels. Finally, to have adequate power projection capabilities
from the use of a carrier, it is preferable to have more than one
carrier so that a carrier is assuming the mission at sea at all
times. Thus, many experts have concluded that an operational
aircraft carrier does not appear to be in China's near future, even
though China is funding research and development and training
officers in aircraft carrier operations.
According to one Russian report, China plans to build an aircraft
carrier with a displacement of between 40,000 to 60,000 tons. The
feasibility study and draft design of China's aircraft carrier
started in 1992. According to Russian sources, China began work on
its own carrier in 1999 at Shanghai Shipyard. This carrier, code
named "9985 plan" or "Project 9935," would have a 48,000 ton
displacement, capable of carrying 30-40 fighter jets, most of which
would be multi-functional SU-30MKK jets bought from Russia. The
first carrier of purely Chinese design, the ship could have a
built-in vertical anti-air and anti-ship missile launching system.
China had reportedly started work on naval bases and harbors in
Shanghai, Zanjiang and Dalian to improve docking facilities for
this carrier.
The plan for China's first light and conventional powered aircraft
carrier was estimated to cost around 4.8 billion yuan, with
authorities reportedly having already allocated one billion yuan
for the first phase of the project. The aircraft carrier was
expected to be launched in 2003 and to officially go into service
in around 2005. From then on, it was estimated that China will be
able to build a new aircraft carrier at an interval of every three
years. If started in 1999, this carrier was expected to be
completed by 2006. As of mid-2004 there were no credible reports of
the start of construction of such a ship.
In early September 2003 the Harbin Technical University held its
50th anniversary celebration. Founded soon after the Chinese
Communist revolution, Harbin has been deeply involved in PLA
military technical research. As part of this celebration Harbin
students produced a 1:100 scale model of a prospective aircraft
carrier. Derived from the KUZNETSOV design, novel features include
the placement of anti-ship missiles, and the use of a new
anti-aircraft missile similar to that on the new No. 170 air
defense destroyer. Such a ship could eventually carry an air wing
comprised either of navalized Shenyang J-11 or Chengdu J-10
fighters, plus Kamov helicopters for ASW or AEW missions.
In January 2004 it was reported that China would build several
helicopter carriers, having decided to delay plans to build
aircraft carriers. China was said to ask a European country to
build the helicopter carriers and a contract was said to be
expected to be signed in the near future. An un-named European
country was said to have provided China with the design and
specifications of the carrier it would build for the Chinese navy.
The helicopter carriers would act as a stopgap for aircraft
carriers that the Chinese navy wanted to build, despite lacking the
capability to do so.
In June 2005 it was reported that China had completed the final
design for an aircraft carrier, and wouldsecretly start
construction in early August 2005 at Jiang-nan Shipyard, Zhang-xing
Island near Shanghai. The 29 June 2005 issue of Hong Kong Economic
Daily (Jing-ji-ri-bao,) reported that the project would cost 3
billion yuan (390 million dollars), about 3% of China's military
budget. The ship was described as having a top speed of 30 knots,
and a maximal displacement of 78,000 ton. It was said to be
equipped with Russian engines and radars. It would carry 54 fighter
planes and 13 anti-submarine helicopters, including the latest
Russian fighters (Su-33). It was expected to enter service by the
year 2008. Zhang Guang-qin, vice minister of the Commission of
Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense, denied the
rumor that a carrier was under construction.
While these reports persist, they appear to be based on rumor and
speculation, which despite repeated efforts, have gone unverified.
For instance, the multiple aircraft carriers that China is reported
to be building, are all said to be under construction at the same
time at a shipyard in Shanghai, which is also enclosed, to prevent
observation. Though efforts to identify a building or structure of
this size have not yielded any results.
China has apparently decided to postpone commissioning of its first
aircraft carrier until no earlier than 2010.
The formation of an experimental fleet centered on such a carrier
would take another three to four years. Based on the experience of
other countries, it seems that that China would start building
10,000 ton cruisers to be convoy ships. It is also possible that
China will purchase such cruisers directly from overseas, most
likely the "Ukraine," a missile cruiser from Ukraine, which is now
93% completed, and then build China's own similar cruisers modeled
on the "Ukraine."
Helicopters from a carrier could provide support to potential
amphibious operations; fixed-wing aircraft operating from a carrier
could provide greater air defense over a potential beachhead. If
China were to build or purchase an aircraft carrier, such an asset
would enable it to provide increased air defense and support for
amphibious operations. The proposed Chinese aircraft carrier could
be a vessel of 40,000-50,000 tons of displacement, one similar to
the French "De Gaulle-Class" nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.
Given the complexities of developing a new naval reactor
considerably larger than the type used on PRC nuclear submarines
and that a very long range is not required, conventional steam
boilers would be adequate for a Chinese aircraft carrier. Russian
designed steam turbines could give the carrier a top speed of 30
knots. The vessels might carry 24 combat aircraft, such as the
Sukhoi-30MKK launched by a ski-jump. Below deck might be two
missile launchers housing 24 missiles, either the Russian SSN-22
Sunburn or the more advanced Yakhont. China is also reported to be
working on a land-attack cruise missile to be mounted on the
vessel. China would probably build a carrier at the Shanghai
Jiangnan Shipyard.
