Frankly, this big hooha of sending troops (eg, lead by who, who
contribute how many etc) is nothing......
Personally, I don't think the Israeli Army will conduct any cross
border raids into Southern Lebanon if nothin falls on the Israeli
side of the border.....but I doubt Hezbollah will have any qualms
about conducting raids or even causing any 'misfit' activities
across the border.
The fact is that the mandate of the UN force is yet to be defined
properly!
For example,
(a) if the UN force there came across any Hezbollah militia
attempting to cross the border or even positioning some mortar
preparing to fire across, will the UN force have any mandate (to
use force) IF Hezbollah refuse to obey the UN order to leave the
area?
(b) in the event, that Hezbollah manages to fire its missiles into
Israel from positions north of the Litani river, is the UN force
have the mandate (and the authority) to hunt and force the
destruction of this launches?
Mind you, the reason why the Israelis always conduct violations of
Lebanese territory is that Beirut is either unable or even
unwilling (I suspect) to disarm Hezbollah. No doubt Hezbollah does
its homework of performing social programs to deliver services on
the ground, thus gaining support. But one must distinguish why this
is so, is because Beirut govt failed to do its role and
'sub-contract' such role to Hezbollah.
Israel actions could be reined in and condemned by the int'l
community and ostracised and its hands could be 'tied' (as seen in
the pushing down of the ceasfire call down Tel Aviv's throat), but
does this apply to Hezbollah? Talking to Iran is useless and waste
of time as it is Tehran's interest to have Hezbollah alive and
well. Therefore the avenue is...will the UN force dared to take on
Hezbollah if Hezbollah is found to be preparing some cross-border
actions at the border...or will the UN force just stand aside and
watch from the sidelines (as shown in Sabrenica in former
Yugoslavia) and other hot spots worldwide?
