Surprisingly, US Department of Defense ( DoD) has made its
assessment of Chinese built J10 ( Nato code: F10) by declaring its
more comparable to European built Rafale and EF2000 fighter rather
than earlier estimated F16 BLK20/30. See the Air-force Magazine
online report:
http://www.afa.org/magazine/July2006/0706watch.asp
While China Ramps Up
China is accelerating the development of its military power on
almost every front, particularly in intercontinental ballistic
missiles, the Pentagon said in May.
In its annual assessment of Chinas military power, required by
Congress, the Defense Department confessed to being surprised at
the pace and scope of [Chinas] strategic forces modernization,
which features several new classes of missiles with ranges that can
reach the United States.
Overall, Chinas military expansion is already such as to alter
regional military balances. Long-term trends in Chinas strategic
nuclear forces modernization, land- and sea-based access denial
capabilities, and emerging precision-strike weapons have the
potential to pose credible threats to modern militaries operating
in the region, according to the report, prepared by the Office of
the Secretary of Defense.
The Pentagon said China is the one country that could reasonably
compete militarily with the United States.
As the Pentagon has noted before, China continues to be secretive
about its plans and ambitions and has yet to adequately explain
the purposes or desired end-states of [its] military expansion.
The Pentagon pegs Chinas defense spending at between $70 billion
and $105 billion in 2006, or up to three times Chinas own stated
figures. (See Aerospace World: China Boosts Arms Budget, May, p.
25.) Chinas defense budget has continued to increase by
double-digit percentage points annually since the early 1990s, and
the Defense Intelligence Agency estimates Chinas military budget
will triple by 2025.
While its annual defense budget is substantially less than that
spent by the US, Chinas personnel pay and support costs are
sharply lower than those of the US or other Western militaries,
allowing most of the expenditure to go toward procurement of
hardware.
In the document, DOD noted that China continues to pile up combat
aircraft and tactical missiles directly across the Taiwan Strait
from Taiwan, which it continues to claim as part of its territory.
China frequently practices a wide range of amphibious attack
techniques in large-scale exercises, the Pentagon said.
Chinas military buildup appears focused on preparing for Taiwan
Strait contingencies, including the possibility of US
intervention, according to the white paper. DOD noted that many of
Chinas military advances are aimed at being able to interdict, at
long ranges, aircraft carrier and expeditionary strike groups that
might deploy to the western Pacific.
However, the buildup also will give China wider options in
conflicts over resources or territory. The Pentagon noted that
Chinas appetite for energy resourcesoil and coalis already
voracious, and the military buildup may be aimed in part at
securing either vital sea-lanes of supply or communication, or
key geostrategic terrain.
In the Cold War-style showdown with Taiwan, the balance of forces
is shifting in the mainlands favor, the Pentagon said. China has
deployed nearly 800 short-range tactical ballistic missiles
opposite Taiwan and adds about another 100 every year. China has
deployed about 400,000 troops opposite Taiwan, or about 25,000 more
than last year.
Its new strategic missiles, the DF-31 and DF-31A, are solid-fueled
and road-mobile, making them more survivable against a first
strike, and the latter missile can cover most of the US. A similar
new submarine-based missile, called the JL-2, is in advanced
development.
China has deployed more than 700 advanced combat aircraft in the
region of Taiwan and is continuing to acquire advanced Su-27
Flanker derivative types from Russia, build its own versions under
license, and develop its own indigenous combat aircraft.
DOD seemed to offer a re-assessment of the capabilities of
Chinas F-10 fighter, which it previously had compared to the F-16
Block 30. (See Washington Watch: Chinese Military Is Catching
UpFast, September 2005, p. 12.) In this latest version of the
annual China report, the Pentagon said the F-10 is probably more
comparable to the Eurofighter Typhoon and French Rafale, considered
among the top three fighters in the world today, after the US
F-22A. The Pentagon expects more than 1,200 F-10s will be built,
and improved versionsthe F-10A and Super-10are in advanced
development.
China also is improving its night and all-weather maritime strike
capability, although the Defense Department still is not sure if a
Kuznetsov-class aircraft carrier purchased from Russia in the 1990s
will be fitted for naval use, used as a floating museum, or, as the
Chinese claim, turned into a floating casino.
Besides the combat aircraft, China is proceeding with reconfiguring
Russian airlifters into airborne warning and control platforms and
intelligence collection sensor aircraft. Some 40 Il-76 transports
are being bought from Russia, along with eight Il-78 Midas air
refueling aircraft.
The first battalion of Russian-made S-300PMU-2 air defense systems,
considered the most formidable in the world, will be operational in
China this year, with an advertised intercept range of 200 km.
Besides offering improved capability against tactical ballistic
missiles, the S-300 has more effective electronic countermeasures
than any previous types.
The Peoples Liberation Army is downsizing, having cut 200,000 from
its ranks in recent years. The PLA goal is to have a smaller but
better-qualified military, the Pentagon said. The PLA will number
about 2.3 million active forces when the downsizing is done, by
Chinas own accounting, but could expand to 4.6 million with
active, reserve, and paramilitary units called up. Chinas 2004
defense white paper boasted an ability to call up more than 10
million organized militia members.
A key issue coming to a head is whether the European Union will
lift its embargo on selling military technology to China, the
Pentagon said. If it does, DOD thinks China will move to establish
joint ventures with military counterparts in Europe, toward
acquiring advanced space technology, radar systems, early warning
aircraft, submarine technology, and advanced electronic components
for precision guided weapons systems.
DOD thinks the EU will lift the embargo, imposed after the 1989
Tiananmen Square incident, because China offers a potentially
lucrative military market, and the EU has stated that lifting the
ban wouldnt radically alter Beijings military capabilities. The
Pentagon warned, however, that the EU might be defeating its own
policies, because Chinas history of third-party arms transfers
could mean European weapons technology could go to Iran, Myanmar,
Sudan, and Zimbabweall countries that China sells weapons to and
that are themselves the subject of EU arms embargoes.