Basically you don't start a war you CANNOT win.
Depsite all the noise and hoo ha the chinese is making now, I am
sure there are rational military and political leaders that will
ultimately make he rational decision.
Right now China CANNOT invade Taiwan militarily but military gap is
widening and there is a real threat that the point where an
invasion is possible.
But concurrently china is more and more dependent on the outside
world for capital, trade and oil (more on that later).
In the past, china is "inward looking" and "self sufficient". War
might be feasible as things like a sanctions and blockade won't
hurt them. but right now, without trade and capital the coastal
enconomy will come to a standstill.
Also china use to be self sufficient in energy due to its coal
reserve. but with widespread use of cars, it is now dependent on
oil imports... without oil imports, its economy would also be
affected.
As such, the more "developed" china becomes, the more affected
china will be by war and as such, the least likely a war will
occur.
As for US sanctions affecting China we should also look from
another perspective. China is now the factory of the world. Would
the rest of the world sit idly by when US imposed sanctions? As
their econvomy will be affected also.
US itself will also be affected as china is their major trade
partner also.
As for the might of the Chinese Navy, I don't give the PLAN much
chance against the US 7th Fleet. The will be wiped out like in the
opium war.
Yes, they are commisioning new ships, but most of their navy is old
and they are basically unproven.
