60 yrs ago, with the French and the brits engaged in Europe, the
japs believed they could just walk down and take over the resources
in S E Asia if they could destroy the Americans in the pacific, and
they did just that after pearl harbor. Today, I believe China is
fully aware that military takeover of any of the countries in S E
Asia will not be a walkover. Their war with Vietnam, the present
standoff with Taiwan and the American current experience in Iraqi
should continue to be good lessons.
Chinese communist party is different from the north Korean
communist party and the previous communist party of the soviet
union which had extra legal authorities in the state enabling a
single person to control the state. Ccp derives its power from its
position in the state. The central military committee and the
politburo standing committee are The power of ccp and it is not
held by one person. Neither Mao nor Deng had The power, they could
only exercise great influence but could not be a dictator, even
when they held the positions of party chairman and chairman of the
central military committee which essentially control the armed
forces.
Of course a coup can change everything, but believe me a coup
within a communist party is more difficult than in a democratic
county. That is why communists are so frightening.
But the changes of leaderships within ccp over the last 25 yrs, fr
Zhou, to Jiang to Hu, fr Ju Rongji to Wen Jia Bao showed the
passing or sharing of power within the party. I am not worried
about any Chinese dictator, I am more worried about the communist
party taking a hardline.
Militarily it will be years before china can project its forces
across the region, even if EU ends its weapon embargo, any military
build up responding to china would only benefit the US weapon
suppliers.
The real threat from China comes from Chinese nationalism. The rise
of China certainly appeals to the millions of overseas chinese
living in south east asian countries, who share the same history,
culture and language, treated as second class citizens at home. How
can we continue to maintain our way of life, currently flooded with
everything cheap from china and bombarded with values from
hollywood. What values do we hold as Singaporean, against foreign
influence? How can we continue to be proud being a citizen of
singapore, which many ppl think equals PAP? I am a firm believer
that migrating does not solve the problem.