may provide a clearer picture here.
Singapore close to finalising fighter decision
Robert Karniol JDW Asia-Pacific Editor
Bangkok
Additional reporting J A C Lewis JDW Correspondent
Paris
and Michael Sirak JDW Staff Reporter
Washington, DC
Singapore is set "within the next few months" to finalise its
decision on
the Next Fighter Replacement Programme (NFRP) to replace the A-4SU
Skyhawk
attack aircraft, according to sources familiar with the selection
process.
The contract is expected to involve 20 platforms valued at about $1
billion.
There has been no delay, but, as is usual with the Singaporeans,
they will
not be rushed, the sources told JDW. They are being very thorough
in their
technical evaluations, the sources added.
The Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) has shortlisted three
aircraft:
the US Boeing F-15T; the French Dassault Rafale; and the
four-nation
Eurofighter Typhoon (manufactured by a consortium comprising EADS,
BAE
Systems and Alenia). Boeing's F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Lockheed
Martin's F-16
Block 60 and Sukhoi's Su-30MK were eliminated from the running on
10 October
2003.
"The minimum number we'd like to have is eight, but we're looking
for 20
aircraft. We've asked the suppliers to provide several options,"
RSAF chief
Major General Lim Kim Choon told JDW in2004. However, he
acknowledged that
second-phase procurement could eventually follow.
"We're replacing the Skyhawks but the [Northrop] F-5s are coming
online for
replacement in terms of available airframe hours by about 2015.
Together,
we're looking at a [combined] upper-limit requirement of 60-80
aircraft,"
Maj Gen Lim explained, adding that around 2008 the RSAF would need
to
consider additional NFRP aircraft or the US-made Joint Strike
Fighter now in
development.
Singaporean Ministry of Defence sources previously said the final
platform
selection would probably be made in late 2004 or early 2005, but
"the exact
timing will depend on the evaluation process". This schedule showed
a marked
slow-down from initial proposals, which sought a contract
announcement in
late 2003 and first aircraft deliveries during 2006-07.
Under the current process, initial deliveries are expected in
2008-09.
A Dassault Aviation aide said: "For some time now we've been
working on the
principle that the decision will be announced this summer."
The official also conceded that Rafale now found itself at a
disadvantage in
the competition relative to the F-15 because of a factor beyond its
control:
the rise of the Euro against the US dollar.
"Evidently we feel handicapped because the F-15 has a 30 per
cent
competitive edge due to a currency swing," said the aide. "Our
costs and
sales price are calculated in Euros."
Another industry figure, who asked not to be named, felt both
European
contestants in the competition - Rafale and Typhoon - were likely
to be
knocked out of the competition by dollar weakness regardless of
their
merits.
"If the Euro were still worth $0.85, as it was in 2002, Rafale
would be a
shoo-in for the contract," he said. "With the European currency now
at
$1.32, the prospects are an awful lot slimmer."
Defeat because of currency considerations would be particularly
galling to
Dassault because it believes the Singapore Air Force favours it for
the
deal. It would also mean a further setback for Rafale, which has
yet to find
a foreign buyer.
Eurofighter officials declined to comment further on Typhoon's
prospects or
the extent of the currency exchange handicap.
Skip Bennett, head of F-15 business development at Boeing, told JDW
on 17
February: "We still expect some kind of decision or announcement
[on the
Singaporean contest] later this spring [or in] early summer ...
Right now we
are still working to finalise configurations. There are a lot of
options."
Although Boeing is not currently producing any F-15s for the US Air
Force
(USAF) (the last two USAF F-15Es were delivered in December 2004,
and
although Congress did provide long-lead-time funding in FY05 for
two
additional F-15Es, work on them has not started), 40 F-15Ks for
South Korea
will be delivered and produced between now and 2008. This, at
least, gives a
window of opportunity for a smooth continuation of the F-15 line
should
Boeing win the Singaporean contest or the South Koreans decide to
make a
follow-on F-15 order.
