Taiwan might be China's nearest problem but it is not its only
problem, the other issue that spring to mind are the Spratly
Islands. Though China has in the past been involved in other
territorial altercations with neighbours, Taiwan and the Spratlys
are the more notable ones, and both involve the Navy.
Taiwan is still within easy land-based aircraft range, the Straits
of Taiwan isn't very wide. And there are military bases aplenty
dotting the coastlines.
Taiwan aside, the Spratly Islands are supposed to contain big
reserves of crude oil and that would be attractive and justifiable
for any sizable country in the region to claim. Seems like every
country roughly near the Spratlys, bar Singapore, is posting some
kind of claim to it.
China is pretty far compared to everyone else, I think its closest
point would be the Hainan Island, and while it is powerful within a
given radius from its land bases, Spratlys is just a little far off
for easy access. A naval battle group centred on an aircraft
carrier would enable a Chinese force projection into the region,
though it is smaller than a US naval battle group, is bigger than
anything else the ASEAN countries can offer up. In terms of
military posturing without going to war, that'd be menacing enough
already. Sabre rattling, if you may. China's sabre will rattle the
loudest.
Sure, when the missiles and bombs start to fly, the US would play
its "peacekeeping" role and swing either of its carriers in the
Indian Ocean or from the Pacific Ocean into the region, but if they
come in just to hammer the PLAN, fine and good. What happens after
that? Whose side does the US take? They've just leveled the playing
field, they have not solved the problem.
Someone mentioned that to be effective, three CVBGs are needed, one
operational, one working up, and one in refitting, well that can
arguably be for a global navy like the US is; for China, the time
between the cycles can be shorter, plus its proximity to the area
of concern is such that working up isn't going to be that complex a
matter given that Chinese ports are close enough.
I guess, since the Spratlys are too small to contain any runway of
a meaningful size, China may view an aircraft carrier as a mobile
airbase for this region.
It would however be ironic, if, at the end of the day, Singapore is
appointed to arbitrate the proceedings of pumping the Spratly
oilfields, given it is the most neutral party in this region on the
matter!
