Can We Depend on U.S.A To Defend Singapore for the Next 50yr

last SG · 2004-08-21T15:52:21+00:00

50 years later singapore armed forces also damn high tech already?

storywolf SG

Originally posted by sgdiehard:
[b]

If singapore refineries are down, there will only be a disruption of efficient supplies of finished refined products, for a while only. If our enemy confines the war to land battles and allow free passages through the malaycca straits, then all the refineries in the middle east can continue to supply refined cargo to japan....supplementing refineries in china, japan, korea, bypassing singapore. Besides there is also supplies coming from the US west coast. Singapore refineries are not supplying the world, so it is not likely that the "world will have very serious oil shortage."

b]

Maybe you don't know it, but Singapore is the worlds third largest oil refining centre. You cannot simply think that other oil refineries have much spare capacity. To get extra capacity, you may need to build new refineries which take months.

baer SG

It will take more than a couple of months to build a crude refinery which costs at least USD1 billion (1,000 million) it takes a fair bit of economic justification to build such a massive facility, to secure the supply of crude (there is a finate supply) as well as markets to buy the products. Excess capacity is no use if your markets are on the wrong side of the Pacific (Japan for example).

Moxie SG

Frankly, it's dubious to think that the USA will come to our rescue to protect our financial- or oil-market niches. Just cuz Singapore is run like a Inc., it doesn't mean America is also of the same mind. Imagine the grassroots & media fallout over there if their troops are mobilized just to protect their big businesses (see Iraq).

Yes, the devastation of Singapore would be a major economic setback for them, but it's not like they can't switch to contingency plans, eg. partner ambitious Thailand in oil refinery or bankroll Hong Kong further as a financial center. Or, for that matter, finance the building of the Kra Canal & bypass the Straits of Malacca altogether.

If anything, I'll say we (& only we) have consistently attempted to keep the US military actively interested in this region. Malaysia & Indonesia are non-aligned; the latter becoming democractic as well. Thailand is historically neutral. The Phillippines remained corrupted to the core. Indo-China are still recovering from colonialist & war remnants for this generation. America's main interest in the Asia-Pacific is in the north-east, & have accordingly based their troops there (South Korea, Okinawa, Taiwan if need be). Post-Clark Air Base, Singapore have provided them an alternative refueling stop in SE Asia, but it's likely they'll find Australia, their main ally in this part of the world, as an adequate staging area to react to any regional crisis.

Putting my wargaming cap on: No, we'll ultimately control our own military destiny but, for argument's sake, IMO the countries that will plausibly come to our aid shall be, in this order:

(a) Malaysia, but only to combine vs. hostile Indonesia,

(b) ANZAC-Britain, mainly due to Commonweath & historical ties, but also the FPDA agreement which was conceived on the premise that Singapore-Malaysia are indivisable in defence, never mind sovereignty;

(c) China, assuming they ultimately have superpower designs & wants SE Asian stability most of all, even if it takes a Sino-sphere of influence to replace the disintegrating ASEAN;

(d) the USA, but unlikely if it's anyone other than the Chinese who was invading, & only then likely to strike the mainland for geopolitical control (instead of liberating us).

Thailand could slot between (b) & (c), but I dunno if they'll take the initiative if we were warring with a fellow SE Asian country. My speculation is they'll ally more with America economically &, as stated earlier, activate the Kra Canal project. Taiwan could also slot in between (b) & (c), but they lack international legitimacy. India's revived relations with this region is still at the infant stage. Indonesia remains largely an unknown; we'll have to see how the new progressive political system translates into foreign policy.

sgdiehard SG

Singapore is world's third largest oil refining center due to its output. Singapore's refined products output is high because of its efficiency. Turnaround is faster because the refineries are on islands. Singapore refineries are constantly upgrading to get higher yield per barrel. But, over the years, the oil producing countries built refineries to add values to its crude, e.g. indonesia, UAE, China..... High energy consumption countries such as japan, korea, thailand, taiwan and china built refineries in order not to be too dependent on imports. Countries like korea built refineries to secure supplies of naptha for their ethylene plants. I am only talking about the refineries in Asia, not even those in the middle east or australia, yet. In short, there are many capacities outside of singapore.

Singapore is the main refining center catering for asia, rottadam for europe and houston for usa. so if singapore capacities were down, it will stretch the supplies world wide but unlikely resulting in a very serious world shortage.

Obersturmfuhrer SG

Right now, our best form of defence is still diplomacy. Treaties often end up as scrapped pieces of paper, bearing in mind Neville Chamberlain's "Peace in our time" and Hitler's non-aggression pact with Stalin, which is why operational readiness must be maintained.

While majority of us have a hint of belief that the US will help us in times of hostilities, I find the most realistic allies being the Aussies. At the moment they seem to be trying to emulate the US and become a "superpower" of the East Pacific region. They had went into the East Timor (Timor-Leste) before the UN even stepped in and passed resolution 1236, authorising the formation of the UNTAET mission.

Note that I'm NOT advocating a reliance on any foreign aid in our defence.

Unsung_Hero SG

I believe in 20 years China will be Singapore's protector, not the U.S.

China will have more to lose from Singapore shutting down than any one else. It's likely China will make significant investments in Singapore to keep the port and straits open to its shipping and to its access to raw materials.

That is a whole lot cheaper and more rational than trying to build a canal across the Isthmus of Kra in a country that may not be friendly to them.

Aside from Taiwan no other country in Asia speaks the same language, has the strategic value that Singapore would have to China, and has the ability to interface with other countries on China's behalf.

baer SG

Reminds me of the role of Venice in the early renaissance when it was the center of trade between Europe and the middle east, until the portugese found the back door around the middlemen.

China needs links to the outside world. so much so that it built a radio interception station (with Burmese permission) in the Bay of Bengal to monitor traffic coming out of the Malacca Straits. see their options http://chinastudygroup.org/index.php?type=news&id=6485

The Kra canal has been mooted for years and thankfully the problems are still insumountable (unlike the Suez canal, the Kra climbs across the pennisula to several hundred feet, and unlike the Panama, there isn't enuff water to operate the locks to climb the divide see http://www.geocities.com/econ_10330/Kra_canal.html and http://www.thaipro.com/thailand_00/109_kra_canal.htm).

Even with China as protector, Singapore is still not out of the woods. All that needs to happen, is that Aceh (N Sumatra) declares indepedence and blockade the Straits' northern end. Will the US who love indepedence choose between Acehnese independence and Indonesian dictatorship OR US/Singapore interests (go figure that out).

Moxie SG

Good call with the last 2 posts.

I'm inclined to think that Singapore oil-refinery niche may attract more Chinese engagement with this region for the future. Currently we've pretty much cornered that market in this part of the world, & logically a growing China will desire staking a stable foreign partnership in this industry (esp. with experts saying India's gonna our oil exports by next year). If the non-OPEC countries maneuver to form geographical quasi-alliances, I expect the USA to exercise its influence in the Americas (particulary the Gulf of Mexico & Venezuela) instead.

Unsung_Hero, I get your drift but I think you understated the SE Asian political dynamics if the region ends up in-fighting. Natural "buffers" Thailand & Malaysia are logical obstacles to a Chinese southern sweep aiming to "aid" us, so I won't put it past the Thais, with their successful neutrality negotiations throughout history, to establish mutual-benefiting ties with China (&/or America) to gain from the new reality.

Whether we win or lose in a war, our island will be physically devastated to a significant degree. Thereafter, the USA or China may not see it as pragmatic to liberate us, try to mend ties with hostile neighbors, & then try to reconstruct the economy from scratch.

I can visualize a lot of countries saber-rattling on our behalf as a preclude to actual battle, maybe even involving the UN. But when the 1st bullet is fired, they'll almost certainly respond with a bigger degree of self-interest.

LazerLordz SG

In the end, we can only rely on ourselves for defence.Whatever the shortcomings we have in NS currently, they must be sorted out fast and quick.We need a larger regular force and less conscripts, because a vice-versa will drain our economy to a certain degree.

LazerLordz SG

Obersturmfuhrer SG

But dun we have to fork out more for a larger regular force? That is the main reason why we have a conscript army in the first place. And you can't deny that NS is a good transitional stage for most of the boys. Wink

Unsung_Hero SG

Moxie, appreciate your comment.

Singapore is in the unique position of being a potentially friendly floating Carrier in a very strategic location to a major power...China will try to control that carrier rather than allow the US to continue to do so -- and that is worth a tremendous value. In 20 years China probably won't need a Thai/Malaysia land bridge to project her military prowess. With Burma under Chinese influence, Thailand and to some extent Malaysia are in constant check.

In terms of historical examples think Gibraltar with the economic influence of Venice -- Spain and England fought for centuries for control over Gibraltar, and it still maintains strategic value as the gateway to the Mediterrean. No one cares that Portugal, Morrocco, etc are close by. Don't think the Chinese will be too concerned with our neighbouring states -- look at how the US treats other states in the Western hemisphere -- Granada and Panama invsions in the last 20 years, supports Contras in Nicaragua, has large numbers of paramilitary in Ecudor, Venezula, Columbia, occupies part of Cuba and economically blockades it -- basically does whatever it wants and treats these states as raw material providers, China will likely handle Asean states in a similar fashion -- i.e. they are pretty irrelevant when you focus on the core strategic objectives -- safety of shipping lines, control of choke points.

Moxie SG

China is stirring. I recall this breathtaking engineering project they announced some time back, about building a network of pipelines from Xinjiang across 7-8 provinces to Shanghai. Not sure if it's completed yet (didn't share the limelight with the 3 Gorges Gam).

Recently they made another, & I found an archival report on it: They wanna "reduce its vulnerability over imported oil shipped via the Malacca Strait by building a pipeline to a port in Myanmar ... [to] ensure that supplies will continue even when passage through the narrow & already very congested waterway is disrupted for whatever reasons."

... Given that four-fifths of its oil imports now pass through the Malacca Strait and the fact that China does not have a blue-water navy to protect the route, Beijing is distinctly uneasy about the risk of blockage should fighting with the United States break out over Taiwan.

This issue was first raised by Chinese President Hu Jintao at a Central Economic Meeting on Nov 29 last year. He asked officials to come up with possible solutions.

According to a source, the officials proposed four, with the first three centred on building a pipeline from the south-western province of Yunnan to Myanmar, from north-western Xinjiang province to Pakistan, or from Tibet to Bangladesh. The fourth solution entailed helping Thailand to build its Kra Canal.

The source said the Bangladesh option was ruled out almost immediately because it meant passing through Indian territory.

The Pakistani option is being considered in tandem with a railway line that China intends to build, linking up Kashi (Kashgar) in southern Xinjiang with the Pakistani port of Karachi in the Indian Ocean.

But this route has to pass through rugged terrain with harsh climatic conditions, thus posing formidable technical difficulties.

By comparison, the Myanmar option is more appealing, both politically and technically.

They're said to be already negotiating with Myanmar officials. It's an audacious vision - many hundred times longer our own pipeline to Indonesia - & it looks like they're prepared to economically bypass Singapore-Straits of Malacca if need be.

http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/eyeoneastasia/story/0,4395,264296,00.html

Unsung_Hero SG

Interesting, logical but unnecessary if they secure Singapore as the Chinese Navy and Airforce's regional base -- don't think Malaysia or Indonesia would attempt to engage China in 20 years. Problem with Myanmar is that ultimately the regime there will collapse and they may lose their friendly proxy state -- other than annexing Myanmar altogether. No one would have buillt the Panama or Suez canals if a major alternate route were merely 500 miles away.

Basically if I were China I would be sucking up huge to BG Lee and Singapore and pouring counter investment into SG to firm up and bind economic ties. The more relevant China is to Sg the less relevant the US becomes. They seem to fail to understand this now, but will eventually.

Of course the other solution for them is to cozy up to Malaysia or Indonesia, counter the US regional presence, and control the straits that way, which might fit in well with our neighbours if they can get their heads around the historical and racial issues.

LazerLordz SG

I wouldn’t place too much faith in Myanmar.Its regime disgusts me, another authoritarian regime that is hollow on the inside and places the self-interest of the elite before the entire nation.We are rumored to have helped them in one way or another in their SIGINT and ELINT infrastructure set-up.Frankly, I’m not surprised that we would be helping them, as birds of a feather tend to flock together.I sincerely hope that the above is just a much-repeated rumour as it definitely casts aspersions on our image.

Obersturmfuhrer SG

Does anyone have any idea how pathetic the Myanmar Armed Forces are? Their weaponry lags behind majority of the SEA nations in terms of both quantity and quality, hampered by their poor economy (if it ever existed) and political sanctions.

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