Originally posted by damienthedevil:
[b]Hi all, I'm curious as to what the typical Singaporean
thinks of an Indonesia that is "managed" by Wiranto.
My curioisity stems from the fact that some of the wargamed
scenarios I've dealt with here include a scenario where a martial
law managed Indonesia revives Konfrontassi.
Do Singaporeans factor in a rogue Indonesia?
We always had a good relationship with the Indonesian Armed Forces
since Suharto time, especially with Wiranto ( We can't say the same
with their politicians ). We have cultivated good relationship with
Indonesian Generals ( Wine, dine and god knows what else ) all this
years. If the Golkar party helm by Wiranto wins, at least he will
bring some stability to Indonesia ( Martial Law maybe) and SG will
have a fren running Indonesia who we can utilise and get favors in
return. Its better to have an ally down south ( dont wanna meet any
kompassus ) when things hots up in north.
Indonesia with its multitude of problems would not be able to
conduct a exercise similar to Konfrontassi which anyway was not a
successful operation in the 60's. And if it's revived again, it
will definitely be a different story coz of all the new weapons and
technology available today.
In a wargame scenario, we have factored-in fighting a war with a
Indonesia. And In all the simulated exercises guess who wins all
the time.
[/b]
Military-wise, Indonesia does not have sufficient amphibious
capability to mount a Normandy on Singapore. Our Navy and Air Force
will sink those few ships that can make their way to Singapore and
those who manage to embark will be picked off by the Army. Of
course, Indonesia knows this as well and wouldn't try this. Guess
what S'pore military planners are really scared of are the airborne
units of both Indonesia and Malaysia. Remember Malindo Darsasa in
1991? Guess that's our nightmare scenairo: A scene right out of
WWII with paratroopers dotting the skies over Singapore. Indeed,
the strength of our neigbours is in special forces, with
Indonesia's Kompassus, and Wiranto's ex unit I think, regarded as
the best in SEA. And our neighbours have divisions of them.
Scary...
Political-wise, do not ever underestimate Indonesia. A strong
Indonesia may seek regional hegemony e.g. Confrontation but a weak
Indonesia is equally scary. Just look at the JI problem.
Political-wise, our planners fear that in a weak Indonesia, a
radical Islamist regime might take power and massive communal riots
like those of 1965 following the failed PKI coup might erupt,
spilling over into S'pore and M'sia and destabilising the region
(See Huxley) However, the TNI has traditionally regarded itself as
a guardian of the state and would not allow this to happen. Hence,
while we may fear the Indonesian military, it also plays a very
vital role in maintaing SEA security.