can help me?

kY|e-_-o SG

hi guys.. sorry to ask for ur help... its not very related to military stuff.. but den.. i juz hope i can get some ideas from u guys.. hee Cool

its for my sch assign...
what are the factors that is causing singaporeans to emigrate?
is the government doin enough to keep singaporeans here?
is it the problem of foreign talent?
is it our younger generation who do not have a sense of belonging to singapore and does not sees NS as a duty to the nation?

thanks for the help guys !! Very Happy

tripwire SG

the ageing population...and the problems that comes with an ageing population couple with the serious economic, military and social effects of a depopulation due to low birth rate.

some of the problems include the following..

1.. slower economic growth.
2.. higher percentage of foreigners. (plus all the problems they bring)
3.. higher taxation rate (mostly by raising GST)
4.. lack of security.

few youngsters would want to be living in an island of old folks home.

maybe next time they no more young men... even 60year old ah peks also must continue ICT to beef up the numbers. Mr. Green

paulho SG

many ppl view that this government is too pro foreigner by dishing out so much benefit to them, giving citizenship without any need for national service, allowing to buy hdb housing etc ...

What I found most insulting was recently survey published in straits times few days ago says that "singaporeans not trained to do high level jobs"

Means what?
Does this survey give you the justification that what you doing is right to continue your policy to recruit foreigners for jobs rightfully belonging to singaporeans?

Or what was your aim? Was it to broadcast to all employers with hidden message that "better not hire singaporeans"?

So many ppl out of job now how can you publish such an insensitive thing?

No wonder ppl are leaving to become foreign Talent in other countries.

Viper52 SG

Well, there are push factors in Singapore and pull factors in other countries

Push factors
- Attitudes in Singapore. For example how everything is so elitist in Singapore from the school system to determining who can enter a casino.
- Lifestyle. You can only stand the rat race for so long.
- Politics. To put is simply, its claustrophobic
- Cost of Living. This is totally different from standard of living.

Pull factors overseas
- Climate. You can only stand Singapores tropical weather that long
- Simpler, cheaper lifestyle. A middle class family needs not scrimp and save to pay off a 30-year home loan for a pigeon hole and a set of wheels
- Old age: In addition to what you have, the system looks after its citizens in recognition for their contributions to the country no matter how small.

These reasons just scratch the surface, and might not apply to everyone. The issues are a lot more complex

is the government doin enough to keep singaporeans here?

NO!!

is it the problem of foreign talent?

Yes. But the issue is mainly to do with the government's definition of "foreign talent". Theres no issue with real "talent" who are brought in to make up for a shortfall in skills and knowledge in the locals. The problem is that the government is bringing in large numbers of foriegners to bring down costs of doing business here (which is high not due to labour but in a large part due to land, utilities and other costs) as they demand less (easy when cost of living in your home country is low and you don't have a 30-year HDB loan to pay off)

In short, this is an area where the interests of Singapore and the interests of Singaporeans diverge. And instead of finding a middle ground like it should, the government is shafting Singaporeans big time. Small wonder Singaporeans are disenchanted. And because they are unable to make themselves heard, those who can, vote with their feet.

is it our younger generation who do not have a sense of belonging to singapore and does not sees NS as a duty to the nation?

In a way, yes. But NS is small beans compared to other reasons. Anyway, the young who have not served NS have no say in their family's decision to migrate.

kY|e-_-o SG

thanks for the interesting feedback guys! been a great help~! Very Happy

paulho SG

I agree with you I never thought of it at that angle that foreigners were brought in to lower labour costs, I always knew that singaporean wages are higher because we have endless financial commitments to meet like housing, car loans and insurances to pay that's why we needed higher wages.

But tell me whats the point to retrain and get high tertiary education or skillset if not for the purpose of getting a better paid job which leads to better & higher lifestyle? Wasn't that what our prime minister when he came to office wanted in the first place? "More good years" remember?

I feel the government should have a scheme to do a writeoff of maybe 10% of all outstanding housing loans amounts to HDB every 4-8years. Those HDB units which already fully paid would get a equivalent percentage cash back of the value of their homes.

This scheme should only be for Singaporeans, not for foreigners or PR's who bought HDB houses. If foreigners want to be part of this scheme then they should do some form of meaningful volunteer national service for a certain period and become singaporeans before the cutoff date.

With this writeoff it will take a huge financial burden off people's shoulders, put real money back into their pockets, boosts savings and spending which in turn will stimulate the economy over time.

This scheme will occasionally also put money back into the pockets of those getting on in their later years, it will help them continue to meet costs of living and medical expenses.

With the people's "unit costs" gone down it is then more justifiable for companies to lower wages of singaporeans across the board and this will present a more level playing field against the so called foreign talent.

what do you guys think of this idea?

Allendro SG

That requires money man, tons of it. That ultimately comes from taxpayers.

With the prices of homes today, I think by the time I decide to settle down, I might not be able to afford a door! But I guess it's the same in other countries - only that they can afford homes, but pay higher taxes. We always want to think that the grass is greener on the other side, but that only applies if you're the right kind of cow.

paulho SG

tell me why HDB cannot afford to write off part of the loans? Don't they have tons of money?

Any economist in the forum can tell us what's the effect if HDB writing off loans?

Allendro SG

Yes they do - but you're not supposed to know that.

Also, the S'pore govt will never change this whole policy on handouts, cos they're too afraid of Singapore becoming a welfare state. Social welfare bleeds the state, but when you don't help enough, that's deplorable too. And there are more poor people in Singapore than most of us realise.

The govt never does anything out of altruism, it can't - it is a corporation. So you can be sure that if they were to ever give money back to the people, they'd make up for it in some other way.

Viper52 SG

Actually paul, if you were to do a survey of the average take-home pay of a Singaporean, its not overly high compared to other countries on a roughly similar level of development. As for the more developed countries, theres no comparison. The talk of overpaid Singaporean workers is absolute rubbish. The problem is when you have sky-high cost of living here, coupled with not sky-high wages and thats where the problems begin.

You're absolutely right about the education and training part. For a lot of fresh job seekers, believing the mantra of getting a degree = getting a good job and a good life has got them into serious trouble.

I feel the government should have a scheme to do a writeoff of maybe 10% of all outstanding housing loans amounts to HDB every 4-8years. Those HDB units which already fully paid would get a equivalent percentage cash back of the value of their homes.

This scheme should only be for Singaporeans, not for foreigners or PR's who bought HDB houses. If foreigners want to be part of this scheme then they should do some form of meaningful volunteer national service for a certain period and become singaporeans before the cutoff date.

With this writeoff it will take a huge financial burden off people's shoulders, put real money back into their pockets, boosts savings and spending which in turn will stimulate the economy over time.

This scheme will occasionally also put money back into the pockets of those getting on in their later years, it will help them continue to meet costs of living and medical expenses.

With the people's "unit costs" gone down it is then more justifiable for companies to lower wages of singaporeans across the board and this will present a more level playing field against the so called foreign talent.

what do you guys think of this idea?

I'm not a trained economist, nor do I (or anyone outside of the Ruling Elite) have the data on hand to comment on whether the plan is good. However, all I can say is to remember that we have a government who, when the choice is between hurting it's own bottomline to help Singaporeans, or to maintain its bottomline and screw Singaporeans over, it will choose the latter option. Almost every time.

Unless, an election is round the corner and/or it doesn't hurt the bottomline too much

<sk> SG

If you really want to get an A for your school assignment, you should email the ministry of home affairs and ask for an interview with their head of public communications head.

Then, again I do not know what type of school assignment is this? A paper? a project? for what class? Poly or Uni? What is the thesis topic?

paulho SG

but in this case I'm not talking welfare, the welfare bit is just a byproduct of the whole scheme. the main purpose is to find a way to lower "cost of singaporean" other than government shying away from the real truth and always giving excuses to bite this or that bullet, ask them to bite this bullet lah.

I also know there's a lot of poor people around, just a few weeks ago an old neighbour near my block took his own life by going thru his window - health + financial problems.

In the past I'm sure people had such problems but they endured it, until somebody becomes the catalyst and starts to jump. Seems like recently there's been a lot of these copycat suicides going around, like suddenly people cannot endure anymore, especially the old with health problems who dun want to be a financial burden to their families decide on this path as their solution.

I was surprise that straits times didn't feature the suicide incident I wonder how many such cases like that never make it to the news everyday?

tripwire SG

write off part of the loan but still maintain the value of the HDB unit or simply devalue the HDB unit and readjust the loan payment?

if you are asking for the former... its gonna mean high taxation and high inflation in the short term.

in the long term, you might face higher unemployment, devaluation of sing dollar and falling wages.

if it is the later.... (i am very tired... gotta sleep... but its effect would be similar)

golani_bde SG

what are the factors that is causing singaporeans to emigrate?
Other than for a better quality of life, sometimes you just have to uproot and go where the job takes you to or where the jobs are. This is all part of globalisation. Can't afford to sit around and wait

is the government doin enough to keep singaporeans here?
Definitely not. They keep you on a treadmill and tell you that you are never running fast enough. If the economy goes up, it is because they are doing a good job. So big pay packages for the guys at the top. If the economy goes down, because US and Europe are not doing well and Singapore is depedent on external demand. So man in the street takes pay cut. What kind of crap is this?????

is it the problem of foreign talent?
It is always good to have global talent. Ldn, NYC and Tokyo and Shanghai will not be what they are today if they shut out the foreigners. Interaction brings out new ideas. But let us not get carried away and treat them like god-sent. They way Singaporean press has potrayed "foreign talent" is definitely down right ugly.

is it our younger generation who do not have a sense of belonging to singapore and does not sees NS as a duty to the nation?
Not true! The love for a country should not translate into blind faith. Nationalism encourages that each citizen contributes to society and make it a better place. That is why debate on different ideas and policies is important and should be encouraged. NS is of course the duty of every able man to protect his home

HDB loan write down?
Guys I think this will be difficult. Take a look at the 1997/8 IMF report on the Singapore economy. It is obvious that the CPF system is underfunded and whatever GIC or Temasek has in assets need not be easily liquidated to be used for this refund.

Lower value of housing. That is again a tough call. With so many Singaporeans already having a mortgage, doing so risk putting many households in the category of negative equity which will be bad for the economy.

In the same vein, it is also true, why the call for pay cuts in Singapore is a bad idea. Yes it saves job in the short term. But until now no one has stepped forward to propose how Singapore should deal with this wage deflation spiral. Lower wages - less consumption, biz goes broke and more pay cuts....lower asset wealth and more cut back in consumption???? Singaporeans will be getting poorer by the day. Look at today's news pte home prices going lower.....

Other than wages, we can lower the cost of transport, land cost for office and industrial. Not every government agency needs to make a tidy profit so that its Chairman gets a handsome bonus.

Becareful when the press tells you that Singapore still has the cheapest mass rail system compared to major cities in Asia. Have you wondered abt the freq of the trains.

SMRT peak 1 train per 5min and off-peak 1 per 8/10min
MTR (in HK) peak 1 train per min and off-peak 1 per 3min

dkhoo SG

I can tell there are very few economists on this forum. A lot of the ideas on this thread are, well, just plain wrong.

About the HDB writing off loans: The net effect would be inflation, which would reduce everyone's real wealth. If the HDB wrote off loans, it would be the same as taxing everyone. That is also why the government cannot simply create more money to pay for everything (which writing off loans is a form of).

Increasing the supply of labor will bring down the price of labor (wages) only if the demand for labor remains static. However, the point of bringing in foreign labor is to encourage the creation of new industries and promote the growth of companies, increasing the demand for labor. If the rate of increase in the demand of labor due to the entry of foreign labor is greater than the rate of increase in the supply of labor, then real wages should increase. Econometric data indicates that this is so. The foreigners eat some of the pie, but they also make the pie bigger than the amount they ate. This is a matter of fact, not conjecture.

The problem here is psychological. When someone loses a job to a foreigner, the damage is visible and painful. But if that foreigner's presence increases the efficiency of the company enough to create two or three jobs elsewhere in the economy, it is difficult to credit the foreigner with it. The benefits are hence invisible and insensible. Therefore the anger against foreign labor.

As for the cost of living -- the relevant statistic is purchasing power parity-adjusted per capita GNP. That is roughly the average wage in the country compared to the level of prices in the country. Adjusted for purchasing power parity, Singapore is one of the richest countries in the world -- approximately equal to the UK. Prices here are high, but people earn a lot too. You can criticize the way they calculate the "price level" here, but if you compare the lifestyle of Singaporeans to those in the West, we do not lose out. Life is not a bed of roses in other countries just because their houses are cheaper.

Again, the problem here is psychological. It is easy to get angry about the fact your car and house cost 5x as much as in the West, but hard to be happy about the fact that everything else costs 20% less, even if the overall effect is that you pay less, since you spend only a little bit of your money on cars and houses over your lifetime. The price of credit is also very low here, so homes and cars are actually affordable -- invest the money you save from food, clothes, etc into the interest payments and you come out ahead. But again, it's easy to be angry about being in debt, even if the debt is cheap.

As for the government hoarding wealth -- I thought they have been running a deficit for 4 years straight? Where does this idea come from? In fact, I do not approve of the budget deficit, since it draws down our reserves. What are foreign reserves for? They help to stabilize our currency, which ensures that prices remain stable, creating wealth for everyone. The government doesn't hold on to the money for fun -- it has an important economic purpose. The government is not like a private person or even a company -- the money it holds on to has a totally different function in the economy. Remember -- the government has the special power to create money at any time.

Maybe they should teach basic economics in school. It would help a lot of people to understand what is going on. A real pity.

golani_bde SG

Dear Dkhoo,

It is essential that the government incurs a budget deficit during a business downcycle so as to take out some of the volatility. Volatitlity causes economic dislocation and unnecessarily increases business cost. Such is economics, I do wonder where you received your training? PAP school of economics? And their deficit is not real deficit as their calculation does not include funds earned from land sales like other countries do. So they have in fact been running a budget surplus during this time.

If a government keeps running a budget surplus, it is providing a net withdrawal of resources from the economy at each stage of the business cycle. Is that desirable? Only if they are the best investors in town and the dividends reaped are distributed back to the economy. So far there is little to prove either way.

golani_bde SG

If HDB writes off part of the housing loan, it need not be inflationary.
In fact there is nothing wrong with inflation. The problem is always and only with excessive inflation. An inflation rate of 1-2% is actually good for the economy. It gives corporates pricing power and also benefits net debtors. On the contrary, SIngapore had seen two years of very low or negative inflation. It reflects how weak domestic demand was and if HDB were to allow debt forgiveness, I wonder if it will be negative for us. US fed Chairman has tried very hard not to have to US economy slip into negative inflation for fear of compounding the economic weakness!

The PPP adjusted per capita GDP although a widely used measure is not a good gauge of quality of life. Are you sure our quality of life is comparable to the West? This is not to belittle what Singapore has achieved. PPP numbers only shows roughly how much money each of us have after adjusting for the cost of living. But it does not account for what we are able to buy with that money and the social freedom one gets to enjoy. For example, if you are into classical music, does your high PPP dollars allow you to watch live performances of the Wierner Philharmoniker every week? No, because they are based in Berlin!!!! Are you able to move Disneyland into Singapore for our children to enjoy? No! you have to pay for an extra return airticket!!!! Using numbers like PPP is how the Singapore government likes to argue its case... but how untrue it is of the realities of life!

On the last point, government reserves is not equivalent to foreign reserves. Governemnt reserves is fiscal resrves plus foreign reserves. Fiscal reserves is simply the accumulation of all previous budget surpluses. So asking them to dip into the reserves need not mean running down foreign reserves!

tripwire SG

we already have a mild inflation…

golani_bde SG

Yes, and in my view all due to high global commodity prices, cost push but not demand pull. Will soon retreat as Chinese economy is set to cool by 2H 2004.