The Monty Hall Goat Riddle

UltimaOnline SG

A thoroughly honest game-show host has placed a car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors. You have no prior knowledge that allows you to distinguish among the doors. "First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I've shown you the goat, you make your final choice whether to stick with your initial choice of door, or to switch to the remaining door. You win whatever is behind the door."

Should you switch doors? Explain.

mhcampboy SG

Switch. His probability of winning will be higher. Its a math thing.

^tamago^ SG

posted last year in chit chat. can't find that thread though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

u came back from hwz ah.... Laughing

UltimaOnline SG

u came back from hwz ah.... Laughing

No lah, I always open HWZ, SgForum and several other internet forum simultaneously on different windows when I surf. Multi-tasking mah. So this riddle is posted simultaneously on many forums by me.

Anyway, for the solution, can look at my simpler phrased solution (my own phrasing) on my webpage *here*. The wikipedia version talk a lot of other extra stuff like the riddle's history, etc.

^tamago^ SG

orh. i post cos i lazy to quote... Embarassed

the 100-door analogy works wonders for me though... Smile

UltimaOnline SG

Any riddles of your own, Tamago? Razz

Btw, for the more mathematically inclined, here's a more rigorous solution :
http://www.remote.org/frederik/projects/ziege/loesung.html

^tamago^ SG

no. i'm very simple de. Embarassed

UltimaOnline SG

Both your HWZ and ChitChat avatar the same photo - is that you in RL, or if its some artiste, who is it ah?

(A lot of avatars and sigs use artistes, but sometime even sigs using photos of famous pple like Jolin, can look so different its hard to recognize)

^tamago^ SG

kaira kwong shi jia... Embarassed

UltimaOnline SG

Ahhhh, ok got it Wink

(url edited away)

^tamago^ SG

thanks but i got le.

i got subscribe to another invisionfree de...

heard she's singing at this yr's ndp wor~

UltimaOnline SG

Ar? I meant "I got it" as in "so that's the artiste in your avatar". I just googled the name and came up with that webpage, which has a larger photo, so I included the link.

If that's a link to some illegal file sharing site (I'm not into that stuff so I dunno if that website I googled to, is about such), I'll edit it away now.

^tamago^ SG

orh. i thought u wan SIC the album... Embarassed

the photo can get from her blog. http://www.wretch.cc/blog/kaira0725 Smile

UltimaOnline SG

http://www.wretch.cc/blog/kaira0725

Wow, that's a terrific photo that Kaira took near the Kallang stadium... it makes it look like such a beautiful, romantic, magical place... right here in Singapore, at Kallang!

Would you like to share more about Kaira? Is she Sg by birth? She a full time artiste now?

^tamago^ SG

haha. me fans is buy album listen nia, listen and still listening... sg by birth, went nygh, rjc.