Viper52 is right on most points,
with the exception of " US domestic territories " that will force
the USA to war.
In a 2001 US archive news report, the following was
reported:
http://www.dawn.com/2001/08/30/top17.htm
China will emerge as a superpower in
the next half-century, perhaps even within the next
quarter-century.
This is the assessment of United States Deputy Defence Secretary
Paul Wolfowitz, who says [color=red]Taiwan is at the core
of the US-Sino relationship, and America is firmly committed to
seeing the issue resolved without the use of
force.
The question was whether the emerging China would live at peace
with its neighbours, Mr Wolfowitz added, "or will it go the way of
traditional power diplomacy, which I think in this era with these
weapons would be a tragic mistake...I don't think China has to be a
threat, but I think if we're complacent, then we could actually
contribute to the opposite effect."
Mr Wolfowitz, in his interview, said the build-up of short-range
missiles opposite Taiwan violated Beijing's pledge to resolve the
standoff with the island peacefully, but he thought it was
"terribly important that everybody behave sensibly and maturely and
keep that situation a peaceful one, which it has been for quite a
long time now."[/color]
In a 2002 US analysis of China in the
next 25 years, the following was reported:
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200210/06/eng20021006_104528.shtml
China's Economic Growth Aids Global
Development
6 October 2002
Experts predict if China can keep its economic growth rate at
around 7 percent over the next twenty years, it will rank third in
the world economic aggregate table behind the United States and
Japan.
Unfortunately, both China and USA see
each other as political adversaries that will block each other's
path to being a super-power:
http://www.fas.org/news/china/1997/bmd970411h.htm
CHINA:
U.S. OBSTACLE TO SUPERPOWER STATUS
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
April 8, 1997
http://www.atimes.com/editor/CB17Ba01.html
Editorials: ANALYSIS
Bush's lone military superpower
vision
Part 2: The enemy is China
By Uwe Parpart
Editor, Asia Times Online
Part 1: Bush's lone military superpower vision
Part 3: The nature of future wars and US strategy
Today, China has about 1.2 billion people and a GDP of US$1
trillion growing at an annual rate of 7-8 percent. By 2025, its
population will be 1.5 billion, its GDP in the $6 trillion-$7
trillion range (comparable to that of the US or the EU in the
mid-1990s), and it will be able to avail itself of the most
advanced technologies.
And the following scenario for future Taiwan crises is seen as
possible, even likely: China decides to try to force Taiwan to
accept reunification on Beijing's terms. Its first military step is
a naval blockade of Taiwan. The United States sends ships to
challenge the blockade. In response, the Chinese threaten missile
attacks or hit American vessels, persuading Washington that it has
to choose between going to war and pulling back. Hesitation in
Washington or a decision to retreat prompts the collapse of the
Taiwanese stock market, currency and economy. The Taiwanese
establishment quickly accepts whatever deal Beijing is offering -
and that isn't all. US failure to support its ally persuades other
Asian powers that they, too, must accommodate the rising China.
Japan makes a deal with Beijing for security and autonomy, in
return agreeing to close all US bases. A reunified Korea, swept up
by nationalist sentiment, also expels the Americans. China
effectively dominates the entire region. "An Asia it dominates but
does not conquer or occupy is China's goal," the study
says.
However, although China has a growing
economy that will help its advancement to be an economic
powerhouse, it may not reach super-power status on the same terms
as USA.
This is largely due to its population size that will tax the budget
to ensure continued development that will benefit the lives of
China's population.
Its corrupt government system at the lower levels will prevent
economic wealth from reaching every corner of China, and it will
need deeper reforms to its legal and financial system to take
advantage of its entry into the World Trade Organisation, and bring
its economy on par, so as to compete with the rest of the
World.
China will need to relook at its Political System that embraces
Communism, even as it moderate the Communist System of Central
Planning with Capitalistic Methods in capitalising on Market
Forces.
By revamping its political system to allow for broader changes to
liberal creativity, enterprise and transparency in all aspects of
economic and political activities, China's growth will be
significantly deeper and broader.
This will allow for a bigger and more meaningful military budget
that will capitalize on the technological growth and development in
commerce and industries, which is largely brought into China by
Foreign Investments.
China may yet be a super power that can match the USA, but it will
depend on the will of its system to accept change.
Since the opening of its doors to the world in 1978, China has
accumulated a National Reserve of over US$200 Billion, which makes
it third in size after Japan.
Recommended interesting sites for general
reading:
China: the Emerging Superpower
by Major H.A. Hynes
http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/china/doctrine/0046.htm
Conference of Defence Associations Institute
Second Annual Graduate Student Symposium
12-13 November 1999
CHINA'S SUPERPOWER CHALLENGE
JOE VARNER
Changes in China's Use of
Force
http://www.cda-cdai.ca/symposia/1999/varner99.htm
China as the Next
Superpower
Summary of Remarks by
Dr. Harry Harding
Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington
University
September 16, 1997
http://www.national-economists.org/summary2.htm
Asian Super Power
Circa 1999
http://edition.cnn.com/SPECIALS/1999/china.50/
