The key to countering MLRS is detecting them. There are two
scenarios. The first is where Singapore is attacking. In this case,
Singaporean intelligence agents (i.e. spies), special forces and
technical intelligence assets (i.e. satellites, spy aircraft,
ELINT, etc) would have pinpointed the positions of a majority of
the MLRS already. You can bet that Singapore is working hard to
find out exactly where they are at all times and we will only
launch an attack if we are sure we can neutralize them. So in the
opening phases of a war where Singapore is attacking preemptively,
the MLRS along with other military targets like fuel depots,
airbases, communications centres, etc will be attacked by special
forces and airstrikes. In this case, Malaysia will only be able to
fire a small number of MLRS before they are all destroyed, which is
good.
The other case has Malaysia attacking first. In this case, the MLRS
will reveal their positions when they fire. Once they are detected,
they will probably be destroyed by fixed-wing strike aircraft, due
to the urgency of the situation. In order for an airstrike to
occur, enemy air defenses must be suppressed and interceptors shot
down. In order to obtain the partial air superiority needed for
limited airstrikes, around 1-2 hours of air ops are needed, before
the strike wing can safely launch and strike the target. This means
that Malaysia will be able to get off several waves of MLRS, which
is bad, except that it makes Singapore look like the victim, which
is good. The really bad thing is if they damage our airbases,
preventing us from quickly counterattacking.
Which is more likely? It is an open secret that in any conflict
between Singapore and Malaysia, Singapore has to attack
preemptively to survive. Therefore, Malaysia's purchase of MLRS
makes it even more imperative that we strike first. If we detect
that the MLRS might be moving into firing positions, we might have
to launch a war immediately to survive. This means that this
purchase of MLRS is horribly destabilising to the region and brings
the region close to war. It is not just their own throat they are
slitting, but everyone else's too. What are they thinking? Are they
thinking?
