Quake and tsunami predicted in S'pore & M'sia
BANGKOK: Thailand's now iconic meteorologist, Dr Smith
Dharmasaroja, who
in Year 1998 predicted a killer tsunami would hit Thailand one day
& was ignored, said S'pore & M'sia were also in danger from
a future earthquake and tsunami.
"I believe the epicentre of future quakes will shift northwards,
north of the Andaman & Nicobar islands."
"A big earthquake with a more northerly epicentre than the Dec 26
quake will generate a tsunami which will have a more direct route
down to the Straits of Malacca, swamping S'pore and M'sia" during
the month of december 05' and january 06'.
"As the sea passage narrows, more water will build up and the wave
will become bigger. S'pore is relatively low-lying & quite
flat, and would be badly affected. Remember, in Dec, the tsunami
was 30m high at Banda Aceh. At Khao Lak, it was 16m high" he
said.
Dr Smith, 70, retired as chief of Thailand's Meteorological
Department well before last Dec's disaster. But before that, he had
warned first in a speech and then in a memo that Thailand's Andaman
coast was at risk from a killer tsunami.
Tragically his warning, although widely reported by the media,
was
ignored.
Government officials, fearful of tourists staying away, branded him
a cranky and dangerous man. The authorities in Phuket castigated
him & said he was not welcome to visit. After the tsunami,
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra recalled him and made him the
chairman of a committee tasked with developing a national disaster
warning centre and strategy.
"I'm not happy that I have made the right prediction" he said.
"Nobody can accurately predict an earthquake; you can only assume
from historical data" he added. He said big natural disasters occur
in 80 year to 100 year cycles, apparently randomly across the
world.
"If you speak out too much, forecast too much, you will get a lot
of criticism, from government agencies, the tourism sector and so
forth" he added.
Explaining the northward shift of future epicentres, Dr Smith
stressed "This is no joke. I would like you to put this message out
to S'pore and M'sia."
A researcher working on the hypothesis, who did not want to be
named, said the research was on-going and final results were not
yet ready.
Dr Smith said "I have seen the simulations that indicate this and
they look believable. From my own experience, it is possible." Only
a few days ago, there was a 6.1 quake in the Andaman sea near the
Nicobar Islands, which is about 321.8km north of the Dec 26
quake.
So, this is an indication that the epicentre is moving
north."
