No need election, win already. Enough dafties vote
them.
http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2015/07/pap-still-only-needs-23-8-of-the-popular-vote-to-win-31-to-get-23-supermajority/
PAP still only needs 23.8% of the popular vote to win, 31% to get
2/3 supermajority
Based on the latest electoral boundaries released by
the Electoral Boundary Review Committee (EBRC), we have done a
follow-up analysis for the upcoming General Elections.
Under the new electoral boundaries, the challenges of
representativeness remain. Since winning the general election in
Singapore requires the right geographical distribution of seats won
in addition to the popular vote, a political party with sufficient
candidates and a strong enough party machinery in key
constituencies has a strong structural advantage. This gives the
PAP a distinct leg up, given its nationwide presence, numerical
superiority in candidates, and advantage in party resources. A
so-called “freak” election where the PAP loses power is highly
unlikely, even improbable, with the new electoral boundaries.
By the same reasoning, non-PAP parties are almost just
as unlikely to win even the one-third of seats needed to block
constitutional changes even if they win well more than a third of
the popular vote.
With the new boundaries, it is still possible to form
the next government with 23.8% of the popular vote, maintain a
simple parliamentary majority with 26.9% of the popular vote, and
obtain a constitution changing two-third supermajority with 31% of
the popular vote. In comparison, winning the one-third of seats
needed to block a constitutional change requires a minimum of 16.1%
of the popular vote, but non-PAP political parties can fail to win
this number of seats even with 67.7% of the popular vote. Likewise,
a party can win up to 75.2% of the popular vote, but fail to win
the 45 seats needed to form the next government. These results
depend on the geographical distribution of votes across the various
constituencies.
Consequently, being able to form the next government is
marginally more difficult for smaller political parties this
election compared to the last, but it is easier for a larger
political party to win a two-thirds supermajority. It is also
meaningfully more difficult for smaller political parties to win
one-third of parliamentary seats this election compared to the
previous one, given the need to win both across more constituencies
and a larger share of the popular vote than before. This will be
more demanding on resources.
To form a new government with a simple majority of 45
out of 89 contested seats, a political party must win 23.8% of the
popular vote, all five four -GRCs (Choa Chu Kang, East Coast,
Holland-Bukit Timah, Jalan Besar, Marsiliing-Yew Tee, West Coast),
and the four smallest five-member GRCs (Bishan-Toa Payoh, Jurong,
Nee Soon, and Tanjong Pagar).
The new ruling party can lose every other vote
available for contest.
In GE2011, forming the government meant winning a
minimum of 23.8% of the popular vote, the two four-member GRCs
(Holland-Bukit Timah, Moulmein-Kallang), six of the smallest
five-member GRCs (Bishan-Toa Payoh, East Coast, Jurong, Nee Soon,
Tanjong Pagar, West Coast), and the smaller of the six-member GRCs
(Ang Mo Kio). A political party now has to win a minimum ten GRCs
to form the next government compared to nine in GE2011.
Assuming that Parliament retains its Non-Constituency
Member of Parliament (NCMP) and Nominated Member of Parliament
(NMP), a political party must win at least 26.9% of the popular
vote and an additional five of the smallest SMCs to have a simple
Parliamentary majority of 51 seats. These would be Bukit Batok,
Fangshan, Hong Kah North, MacPherson, Mountbatten, Pioneer, Potong
Pasir, and Yuhua. This assumes that Hougang is not in play. The
winning party does not have to win any additional votes. A simple
majority allows the ruling party to pass laws without hindrance,
assuming that our political parties maintain the practice of only
allowing MPs to vote freely with the lifting of the party whip.
To reach a simple majority in the upcoming elections, a
political party has to win at least five SMCs over the number of
seats needed to form the next government as compared to one SMC and
one five person GRC beyond the number of seats needed to form
government in GE2011.
Winning the constitution changing two-thirds majority,
or 59 seats out of 89, means that a party just has to win 31% of
the popular vote, down from 31.4% in GE2011.
However, the party must also win the next smallest
five-member GRC (Tampines), and the six smallest SMCs (Bukit Batok,
Fangshan, Hong Kah North, MacPherson, Mountbatten, Pioneer, Potong
Pasir, Radin Mas, and Yuhua—assuming Hougang stays out of play) on
top of the constituencies mentioned in the second paragraph. The
winning party can lose every single vote in the remaining
constituencies. This is a total of 17 constituencies compared to 15
in GE2011. NMPs and NCMPs cannot vote over constitutional
amendments.
To win more than one-third of the seats in Parliament
necessary to block a constitutional amendment, a political party
has to win a minimum of 16.2% of the popular vote, all the SMCs,
three of the smallest four-member GRCs (East Coast, Jalan Besar,
and West Coast), and one five-member GRC (in this case, we assume
it is Aljunied).
To reach the same one-third threshold in GE2011 a
political party had to win at least 15.1% of the popular vote, the
two smallest five-member GRCs (Bishan-Toa Payoh, East Coast) in
addition to Aljunied, both four-member GRCs (Holland-Bukit Timah,
Moulmein-Kallang), and six of the smallest SMCs (Hougang, Joo
Chiat, Mountbatten, Potong Pasir, Yuhua) in addition to Ponggol
East. The party and its allies need not win any additional
vote.
In the end, this means to assure one-third of
Parliamentary seats, the new boundaries require a win in at least
18 constituencies compared to 13 in GE2011.
The largest win a political party can get but still
fail to form the next government is 75.2% of the popular vote. That
translates into winning every single vote in the larger of the two
six-member GRCs (Ang Mo Kio), seven of the eight five-member GRCs
excepting Aljunied, and the three largest SMCs (Bukit Panjang,
Radin Mas, Sengkang West). The same party receives 50% less one
vote in each of the other constituencies. This will get a political
party 44 seats out of 89.
In contrast, a political party can be unable to secure
one-third of Parliamentary seats even with 67.7% of the popular
vote, the two six-member GRCs, the three largest five-member GRCs
(Aljunied, Marine Parade, Sembawang), and two SMCs (assuming
Hougang, Ponggol East). This presumes that the party wins every
single vote in each of these constituencies, but loses by 50% less
one vote in each of the remaining constituencies.
A political party can also win up to 83.3% of the
popular vote but fail to secure a two-thirds supermajority if it
wins all both six-member GRCs, seven of the eight five-member GRCs
excepting Aljunied, the two largest four-member GRCs (Holland-Bukit
Timah, Bishan-Toa Payoh), and three of the largest SMCs excluding
Ponggol East (Bukit Panjang, Radin Mas, Sengkang West). The same
party also loses in every other constituency by 50% less one
vote.
Note that this analysis makes several key
pre-suppositions. It takes the minimum number of votes needed to
win a constituency as 50% of electors in that constituency plus one
vote in this analysis, which presumes that the electoral
competitions are effectively two-sided. The maximum a party can win
in a constituency are the votes of all the eligible electors in
that constituency. The analysis further assumes that the current
Workers’ Party constituencies are not in play, implying that the
Workers’ Party stays in opposition and retain their seats. The
analysis assumes that there is no possibility of a minority
government. These are reasonable assumptions given the almost
overwhelming structural edge the PAP enjoys and the general
advantages of incumbency in specific constituencies.
Nonetheless, even putting current WP constituencies,
Aljunied, Hougang, and Ponggol East, back into play will not change
the fundamental conclusions of this analysis, since it focuses on
structural advantages and disadvantages and holds campaign effects
constant.
The need to consider both vote share and geographical
distribution in the GRC plus SMC electoral system parallels the
U.S. presidential system, where candidates and political parties
have to consider not just the popular vote, but also Electoral
College votes. Electoral College votes are allocated according to
the population in each state.
In such a system, it is possible to win the popular
vote, but lose the election by having less Electoral College votes.
Al Gore and the Democratic Party discovered this reality in 2000
when they lost the presidential election to Republican George W.
Bush. The Electoral College system encourages presidential
candidates and political parties to focus on “big” states with more
electoral votes and their concerns rather than “small” states. If
Singapore maintains the GRC plus SMC system, this unequal
geographical distribution of attention by political parties is
likely to take place when elections become meaningfully competitive
across Singapore.
To conclude, the structural advantages that the current
electoral boundaries and Singapore’s electoral system give to the
PAP mean that a changeover in government is virtually impossible in
the upcoming election. Non-PAP parties gaining the one-third of
seats necessary to block any constitutional changes are just as
unlikely. Any fundamental change to Singapore’s electoral politics
will have to wait until a non-PAP party or some collection of
parties have a serious nation-wide on-the-ground, grassroots
presence, or if the PAP for some reason loses this presence across
the island. Non-PAP parties should focus on winning specific seats
in the short-term, but develop a nationwide presence in the longer
term.
In other words, there will be more heat than light this
upcoming election. Particular election battles will be hard fought
as non-PAP parties try to gain more GRCs and the PAP tries to hold
on to them while attempting to retake Aljunied.
At the end of the day, the PAP will most likely retain
its parliamentary dominance this upcoming election. This means to
say that voters who wish to support non-PAP parties should feel
free to do so. After all, the PAP is unlikely to be able to
withhold benefits to a large proportion of Singaporeans spread
across the island even if it is the ruling party.
In fact, the PAP will likely be more responsive to
voter concerns if it retains its parliamentary advantages with
alower share of the popular vote, given its desire to limit any
further bleeding of votes in subsequent elections. There are few
repercussions from voting non-PAP this upcoming election and even a
few advantages.
Analysis of the Electoral Boundary below. (Information
from Election Department)
Note: Colored cells represent the constituencies that must be won
for the different scenarios