WP will be hot favourite for Punggol East by-election:
analysts
The Punggol East constituency seat left vacant
by MP
Michael Palmer’s sudden resignation would be fiercely
contested, say two analysts Yahoo!
Singapore spoke to.
And if the Workers’
Party played their cards right, the opposition could add
another seat to their parliamentary voice.
Bridget Welsh, associate professor in Political Science
at Singapore
Management University (SMU), said that while Palmer did the
“right thing” by stepping down, the more immediate challenge would
be the by-election.
“This is a competitive seat with a three-corner fight last round. A
one-on-one contest will make this a potentially winnable seat for
the opposition,” she said.
“How the opposition responds to the situation, timing of the
by-election and the political jockeying will shape the contest and
make for another important test for political parties at the
polls,” she added.
Political analyst Dr
Derek da Cunha, also said there would be a strong moral
obligation for the PM to call a by-election, especially as Punggol
East was a single member constituency, and also because Hougang had
established a very important precedent for the calling of
by-elections.
Da Cunha, who authored the book Breakthrough: Roadmap for
Singapore's Political Future, which analysed the 2011 General
Election, said the PM might be able to resist demands for a
by-election if a member resigned from a Group Representation
Constituency (GRC) as others could cover up for a member who had
stepped down or left.
But this is different for an SMC, he said.
"We are still not even halfway through the current parliamentary
term and not to hold a by-election within the next few months would
defy the democratic right of the voters in Punggol East to have an
MP of their choice," said da Cunha.
If a by-election is called, he expects that the Workers' Party
would be hot favourites to take the seat.
Earlier on Wednesday, the Workers’ Party said in a Facebook
post it urged the PM to hold by-election “as soon as
possible” and that it was ready to contest.
At the last general election in May 2011, Palmer defeated WP
candidate, Lee Li Lian, by 54.5 percent to 41 percent of votes. A
third candidate, Singapore
Democratic Alliance's Desmond Lim, received 4.4 percent of
votes.
Meanwhile, Welsh said Palmer’s resignation would not greatly impact
the reputation of the PAP but warned that politicians are facing
higher scrutiny than ever before.
“The party has been shown to have members who human failings and is
adjusting to new demands of accountability. It has abided by the
principle of resignation here,” she said.
“Politicians face higher scrutiny and expectations, compared to
earlier generations. The application of this principle of
maintaining personal marriage fidelity on a first-time PAP MP
illustrates a broadening of the areas of accountability and
highlights for the PAP that personal attacks can backfire on its
own.”
Just minutes after the announcement of Palmer's resignation broke,
a Facebook
page calling for an immediate by-election for Punggol East
SMC surfaced.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/wp-will-be-hot-favourite-for-punggol-east-by-election--analysts-102117591.html
