Indeed, upgrade gives no guarantee. If you upgrade, upgrade with
the relevant skills and make sure to apply them relevantly. The
latter is rather tough for most to accomplish.
I would say, more importantly, to retain a job you must be
continuously valuable to the company. Again, it's a tough one
especially when we start to age and slow down on both our physical
and mental capabilities. To be valuable, one way is of course to
upgrade ourselves relevantly.
However, I would debate against your example. 20% job loss could
make a lot of difference and could mean a loss of customer and
competitiveness of the company. 20% of the job loss could also have
more repercussions because that 20% can affect other parties.
Lastly, experience can indeed be gained but it takes a lot of time
and the right working attitude and someone will be sacrificing and
spending more of his time to explain to him. If a company keeps
doing such thing, it will be difficult to grow.