PRC becoming more open and democratic is the pre-requisite for a
peaceful reunification of the greater China! If china, for any
reason, moves back from its policies to open up, then I dont think
any peaceful reunification could be materialized. Fortunately,
there is no sign that china is going back in time and current
development is most encouraging.
Among the people, businesses between the two sides are vibrant;
cultural exchanges are active, even now the opposition parties
heads in Taiwan are visiting China and for the first time, the
communists and the KMT are meeting to talk!! If these activities go
on for the next 10 years, will Taiwan or china need a referendum to
reunite?
We witnessed the reunification of east and west germany, not sure
if they needed any referendum. There are many ways reunification
can be achieved, referendum is just one and Taiwan may not need
that.
With income gaps narrowed and greater exchanges among the people
from both sides, there is little emotional or psychological barrier
to reunification. The real barrier remains political, Taiwanese
politics, but the greatest barrier is from outside of china and
Taiwan, countries that do not want to see a strong and united
china, countries that wish to use Taiwan to complete the ring to
encircle china.
The force behind reunification is the nationalistic sentiments on
both sides of the straits, the recognition that there is only one
china and one family, and the need for brothers to be reconciled.
(You are born into a family and you do not decide if you belong
based on pros and cons.)
What will happen in the next 10 years? Lets leave it to time and
not hasten the process in whichever direction.
First of all let me compliment you on some good points posted
above. Regarding democratisation in PRC, I agree there is some sign
of the leadership wanting to push for greater political reform and
accountability, especially after Hu took over from Jiang. However,
CCP's vision of reform may be limited to, for eg, open election of
village leaders and greater leeway for the media to act in a
watchdog role, etc. IMO, they are unlikely to go down the path
towards multiparty election anytime soon. A fundamental difference
in the political systems may be one issue that will divide the
mainland from Taiwan.
I accept there is increasing economic ties between the two sides.
However, I am not so sure about the emotional or psychological
factors, as you term it. One factor in particular may be the push
for a Taiwanese identity by some politicians. This particularly
appeals to young ppl to whom blood tie with the mainlanders is less
meaningful. If PRC want to reunite peacefully, it is vital to avoid
alienating the Taiwanese ppl and do more to promote exchanges at
all levels. As you say, exchanges are growing but PRC may not be
wise by only seeking to play the game with the Lien Chan and
Soong.
On the absence of referendum in the reunification of Germany, I
believe the East German govt was in a state of near collapse and
the East Germans themselves were all trying to get across to the
west. So IMO, a referendum would simply not be possible; besides,
there is no questioning the preference of the East Germans to
reunite.
Regarding the interest of outside parties, I agree they may not
view reunification positively. The US and Japan have gone on record
to identify PRC as a threat and will try to use the Taiwan issue to
contain China. Whether they will overtly seek to divide remains to
be seen.
What will happen in the next 10 years? I believe much depends on
how PRC (and perhaps to a lesser extent other parties) plays its
hand.
