http://english.pravda.ru/world/2003/03/24/44951.html
North Korea Still Dangerous for World
The North Korean army is rather powerful, despite the international
isolation
South and North Koreas have been at war with each other for more
than 50 years already. However, Seoul looks very peaceful at that.
There has never been any peace between the capitalist South and the
socialist North. The treaty of 1953 stipulated the cease-fire,
although Koreas never managed to sign anything pertaining to the
cessation of the state of war. That is why, South Korea has been
living under the constant threat of a military incursion from the
North for decades already. The worlds largest artillery group,
thousands of soldiers and tanks are located tens of kilometers off
Seoul. Relations between South and North have improved lately, so
the issue of a military incursion is not as actual as it was ten
years ago. Yet, the potential danger is still there.
North Korean military men have never made a secret of who they are
going to wage war with. As it is known, the war started in June of
1950, but it ended up with no result. Virtually, there are no
military actions nowadays, disregarding short skirmishes and raids
at the border. However, it does not mean that the two Koreas get
ready to wage war on each other.
North Korean Armed Forces were established at USSRs active
mediation. The USSR delivered defense technology, provided
advisors, organized training for North Korean officers. N.Koreas
first military charters were simply translations of adequate
instructions of the Soviet Union. N.Korean military units were
organized like a copy of Soviet ones. Even first army plans were
first written in Russian and then translated into Korean. It is
worth mentioning that the Chinese influence was considerable as
well. The command of the Korean National Army of 1940s-1950s
consisted of ethnic Koreans of China. At first, they participated
in the Chinese revolutionary movement, but then were sent to Korea
to render the international assistance to the young Korean state.
The situation started changing after 1960, when the relations
between Pyongyang, Moscow and Beijing worsened a lot. That was
caused with the growing conflict between the two communist
superpowers, first and foremost. The N.Korean administration was
not willing to participate in exacerbating relations between the
USSR and China. Probably, that was a correct position for North
Korea to take, although both the Soviet and the Chinese help
decreased considerably. On the other hand, the N.Korean economy was
rather fine back in those years, so the country managed to set up
its own production of weapons artillery systems, tanks,
submarines and even tactic missiles.
To all appearances, North Korean military men planned to invade the
South. Their prime goal was to unite the country. The Soviet
leadership was very well aware of Pyongyang dreamers wishes, so
the USSR feared, that such a military intrigue might lead to
lamentable consequences both for N.Korea and for the whole world.
That was one of the reasons why the Soviet Union did not hurry to
arm North Korea at that period of time. Nevertheless, both Moscow
and Beijing continued rendering military assistance to
Pyongyang.
The situation changed a lot after the year 1990. The USSR stopped
its existence, while China lost its interest in the former ally. As
a result, North Korea experienced an incredible economic crisis.
The Gross Domestic Product of the country dropped two or three
times, the country was gripped with hunger, hundreds of thousands
of people died as a result of that.
The North Korean government has always emphasized the armed forces
role. The highest official position in North Korea is not the
position of the president, but of the chairman of the defense
council. The N.Korean army does not suffer from hunger, for a
hungry army is dangerous. There are no doubts that North Korea
still plans new strikes on Seoul nowadays too, although it is more
of a mechanical matter now. Anyway, it is not excluded that the
isolated North Korean regime might stake it all and launch the new
war. This apprehension is probably groundless, although this is
exactly what a lot of Western countries think.
As it is considered, in case if the new Korean war is launched,
North Korea will deploy thousands of commandos on the southern
territory of the Korean peninsula. They will perform explosions of
roads, bridges, tunnels, power lines, airdromes and airbases and so
on. They will also be ordered to destroy American military men, or
those, who look like them. N.Korean generals believe that the
up-to-date American society is very sensitive to human losses. They
believe, if there are a lot of victims, Americans might agree for a
truce on the conditions that will be good for Pyongyang. In
addition to that, the activity of thousands of commandos will cause
chaos in the rear it will and minimize South Koreas military and
technical predominance. Battle planes will be absolutely useless,
if the majority of pilots are killed. Tanks will be useless too, if
all bridges are blown up.
North Korea has been developing weapons of mass destruction since
1970s. At first they developed the cheap chemical weapon, and then
they started dealing with the nuclear one. The information on that
transpired in the world press at the end of the 1980s. In 1994
there was a document signed, pertaining to which the activity of
N.Korean nuclear centers was put under the international control.
The USA, South Korea and Japan agreed to build a nuclear power
plant in North Korea and to deliver liquid fuel in return. However,
there is no certainty nowadays that North Korea does not have its
own nuclear weapons.
The production of missiles started in North Korea in the 1970s, on
the base of Chinese and Soviet examples. N.Korea possessed 500
kilometers range missiles by the end of the 1980s. The country was
able to hit targets on the entire territory of South Korea. Better
missiles appeared in the beginning of the 1990s. To crown it all,
in August of 1998, North Korea performed the first launch of an
intercontinental ballistic missile. The launch was not really
successful, but the world was very nervous about it. Anyway, that
was the prime goal to achieve to intimidate the world. Both
nuclear weapons and missiles solve double problems. They are
supposed to cause irreparable damage to the enemy and to make the
USA withdraw its troops from Korea. That would be perfect for the
N.Korean leadership. The availability of missiles and nuclear
weapons without any war plays the role of export goods. When
N.Korean diplomats conduct negotiations with the West, they agree
to suspend the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles
and nuclear weapons, asking for a lot of money in return (as a
compensation for their refusal to use nuclear power or for theeir
refusal to make very profitable deals with Iran and Libya).
Official treaties prove that the USA, Japan and South Korea are
ready to pay off the nuclear menace.
However, the N.Korean army is basically a low-technology army.
North Korea has undemanding soldiers that are ready to eat one cup
of rice a day, to walk 40 kilometers a day, and to sleep on the
ground. The North has a lot of such soldiers. There are one million
two hundred thousand people in the N.Korean Army. One million and
thirty thousand of them serve in the infantry. North Korean men
serve for five or seven years. Needless to mention that such a huge
army became an unbearable burden for the country against the
background of a very serious economic crisis. The N.Korean
government wants to make its army self-sufficient, using soldiers
for agricultural and construction works. There are 176 divisions
and brigade in the Korean National Army. The army is armed with
almost four thousand tanks, 2300 armored vehicles. The N.Korean
artillery counts 13.800 pieces of ordnance. The artillery group of
North Korea is considered to be the most powerful group in the
whole world. The Air Force of North Korea counts 1690 planes and
choppers. However, the majority of all those machines are very old
and out of date. No one doubts that the North Korean aviation will
not create serious problems on the Korean peninsula in case of a
war. South Korean and American forces will take a greater advantage
at once. The same can be said about the North Korean navy too.
North Korean submarines are rather primitive. Yet, they are capable
of causing considerable damage to the South Korean shipping.
S.Korea depends a lot on the sea trade, that is why North Korea
paid so much attention to the navy. About two-third of the N.Korean
army is concentrated close to the possible front line.
The geography of the Korean peninsula allows to guess the direction
of S.Koreans strikes. Mountains exclude any army movement on the
border between the North and the South. A large-scale offensive is
possible either on the eastern or on the western coastlines. The
second direction is a lot more preferable, for Seoul is only 30-40
kilometers far from the front line. The North Korean Army is
concentrated on that area.
Anyway, there is a hope that the plans of the North Korean General
Headquarters will remain just plans. It seems that recent events
give a reason to believe that, although one should not relax. The
Korean peninsula is still one of the most dangerous areas of the
planet.
Andrey Lankov
Seoul Herald
PRAVDA.Ru
21:00 2003-03-24
